Grant E. Sims
Based on our ongoing discussions with our offshore producer customers, and the conversations we have with them during their year-end budgeting cycle, we have been provided with lots of information including expected production volumes for 2026 and beyond, along with current and future expected drilling schedules. We were also notified of certain planned and routine turnarounds they have scheduled for 2026, a couple of which will take place at production facilities where we handle the hydrocarbon molecules more than once and that is going to be more financially impactful. While we benefited from no significant turnarounds in 2025, these are absolutely normal and customary and in some cases unfortunately, they can last upwards for 30 to 45 days each. These are their plans. And as I believe everyone can appreciate, we ultimately do not control our customers' operations, nor the precise timing of them drilling, completing, and bringing new high impact wells online. We fully understand the plans and schedules of offshore change. Deepwater drillship schedules change, weather throughout the year changes. Planned turnarounds can be delayed, or extended for a variety of reasons outside our control. What is important though is that despite all of this, and a heavier than normal marine dry docking schedule, which we will go into more detail in 2026, we still reasonably expect to deliver sequential growth in adjusted EBITDA of plus or minus 15% to 20% over our normalized 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $500,000,000 to $510,000,000. We obviously hope to exceed the top end of that range in 2026. And quite frankly, we could easily make a case for such an outcome. To the extent our actual results differ in any significant way, we would simply view that as more of a timing issue with ultimate cash flows just sliding to the right rather than any fundamental degradation in the long-term cash flows expected from the fields contracted to access our offshore infrastructure. Even if certain offshore activity slips to the right, 2027 should be meaningfully stronger than 2026. Based upon our producer customers' current development plans that we have seen, and as a result, the opportunities available to us in 2026 become even more compelling in 2027 and beyond. With that, I will go into a little more detail on each of our business segments. As noted in our earnings release, our offshore pipeline transportation segment delivered another quarter of strong sequential growth, with both segment margin and total volumes increasing across our CHOPS and Poseidon pipelines, rising approximately 19% and 16% respectively versus the third quarter, marking the third consecutive quarter of sequential improvement. In fact, from the first quarter of 2025, segment margin increased by roughly 57% with total volumes across both systems growing approximately 28%. These results were driven by steady volumes from our legacy fields, strong contributions from Shenandoah, and the continued ramp up in volumes from Salamanca. During the quarter, volumes from the Shenandoah FPU remained steady as the facility continued to operate at or near its 100,000 barrel per day target rate from four Phase One wells. At Salamanca, volumes continued to ramp from its first three wells, and we remain encouraged by both reservoir performance and the remaining development plans. An additional well at Salamanca is scheduled for completion in the second quarter with the potential for a fifth well as early as the fourth quarter. Together, these wells are expected to result in total production of 50,000 to 60,000 barrels per day from the Salamanca production facility. Looking ahead, we expect the Monument development, a two-well subsea tieback to Shenandoah, to be completed and flowing through our facilities by late this year, certainly early 2027. Following Monument, a fifth well at Shenandoah is scheduled to be drilled, which could increase total throughput across Shenandoah FPU to as much as 120 KBD with potential upside of an additional 10,000 to 20,000 barrels per day in early 2027. In addition to the five development wells between Salamanca and Shenandoah, we are aware of at least eight additional development or subsea tieback wells at legacy production facilities served exclusively by our pipeline infrastructure that are planned to be drilled over the next 12 to 15 months. Taken together, this activity underscores that producers in the Gulf of Mexico continue to prioritize long-cycle, high-return deepwater developments. We remain actively engaged in commercial discussions around future tieback and development opportunities that could access our offshore systems as projects are sanctioned. Given the competitive economics and long planning cycles associated with these developments, we do not expect near-term commodity price volatility to materially impact offshore development activity in the Gulf. As we look beyond 2026, we would be remiss not to highlight the results of BOEM's most recent lease sale Big Beautiful Gulf One, or BBG-1, which was held on 12/10/2025. The outcome of this sale further reinforces our view, and that of the broader upstream industry, that there remains strong long-term interest in the Central Gulf of Mexico. BBG-1 generated over $300,000,000 in high bids for 181 tracks covering approximately 1,000,000 acres in federal waters, with roughly 65% of the acreage located in the Central Gulf of Mexico. When combined with Lease Sales 259 and 261, which took place in March 2023 respectively, more than 4,400,000 acres have been leased in federal Gulf waters over the past three years, approximately 2,400,000 acres or 53% of the total of which are located in the Central Gulf where our offshore pipeline infrastructure is located and has existing capacity. The breadth of current development activity, the scale of recent lease sales, and the long-cycle nature of deepwater investment all underscore our conviction that the Gulf of Mexico remains a world-class basin with decades and decades of existing inventory. We believe Genesis Energy, L.P. is uniquely positioned as the only truly independent third-party provider of crude oil pipeline logistics in the region, offering producers flow assurance and downstream market optionality along the Gulf Coast. Our differentiated asset footprint, deep customer relationships, and decades of existing and future inventory ahead position us for continued growth and decades and decades of opportunity in this world-class basin.