Ellington Financial Inc.
$13.55
-0.33%Ellington Financial Inc., through its subsidiary, Ellington Financial Operating Partnership LLC, acquires and manages mortgage-related, consumer-related, corporate-related, and other financial assets in the United States. The company acquires and manages residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) backed by prime jumbo, Alt-A, manufactured housing, and subprime residential mortgage loans; RMBS for which the principal and interest payments are guaranteed by the U.S. government agency or the U.S. government-sponsored entity; residential mortgage loans; commercial mortgage-backed securities; and commercial mortgage loans and other commercial real estate debt. It also provides collateralized loan obligations; mortgage-related and non-mortgage-related derivatives; corporate debt and equity securities; corporate loans; and other strategic investments. In addition, the company offers consumer loans and asset-backed securities backed by consumer and commercial assets. Ellington Financial LLC was incorporated in 2007 and is based in Old Greenwich, Connecticut.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E 11.4).
Valuation inputs: P/E 11.4, earnings yield +8.8%, momentum -0.3%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE +8.0%, ROIC +2.0%).
Profitability stack: net margin +21.8%, ROE +8.0%, ROIC +2.0%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +90.3%, momentum -0.3%, net margin +21.8%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Ellington Financial Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Ellington Financial Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Ellington Financial Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.
Operating Margin
Outstanding operational efficiency. The company generates substantial profit from core operations.
Net Profit Margin
Exceptional profitability. The company converts a significant portion of revenue to bottom-line earnings.
Effective Tax Rate
Below-average tax rate suggests effective tax planning, favorable jurisdictions, or tax credits.
Profitability Insight
Exceptional profitability across all levels: Strong pricing power, efficient operations, and healthy bottom line indicate a high-quality business with sustainable competitive advantages.
Ellington Financial Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
Ellington Financial Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Ellington Financial Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that EFC stock may see slight declines over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 13.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 13.00 to a high of 14.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 13.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 13.00 to a high of 14.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Fair value territory. Stock trading near consensus target suggests limited near-term catalysts. Focus on fundamental developments.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Risk-Reward Profile
Unfavorable risk-reward. Downside risk exceeds upside potential. Consider defensive positioning or alternative opportunities.
Analyst Conviction
Neutral sentiment. Fair value pricing with moderate agreement suggests wait-and-see approach or catalyst-driven opportunity.
Market Sentiment Insight
Efficient pricing: Stock trading at fair value with strong consensus suggests market has priced in expectations. Look for fundamental inflection points or new catalysts to drive meaningful moves.
Ellington Financial Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $75K worth of EFC shares, with no selling activity reported.
3 Months
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3-6 Months
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6-9 Months
5.5K
75.18K
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+75K
+$75K
9-12 Months
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Top Buyers
Simon Ronald I
Director
$75K
Top Sellers
No selling activity
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bullish signal with $75K net buying. Insiders are aggressively accumulating shares, suggesting significant confidence in future prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Perfect buy/sell ratio. Only buying activity with zero selling—the most bullish possible insider signal.
Insider Participation
1 insider buyers vs. 0 sellers. Broad-based buying across management team suggests widespread confidence.
Insider Activity Insight
Unanimous insider buying: Zero selling combined with active buying is rare and typically very bullish. Insiders appear to see significant upside with limited downside risk.
efc Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on EFC by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.