CoreCivic, Inc.
$22.48
+3.5%CoreCivic, Inc. owns and operates partnership correctional, detention, and residential reentry facilities in the United States. It operates through three segments: CoreCivic Safety, CoreCivic Community, and CoreCivic Properties. The company provides a range of solutions to government partners that serve the public good through corrections and detention management, a network of residential reentry centers to help address America's recidivism crisis, and government real estate solutions. Its correctional, detention, and residential reentry facilities offer rehabilitation and educational programs, including basic education, faith-based services, life skills and employment training, and substance abuse treatment. As of December 31, 2021, the company owned and operated 46 correctional and detention facilities, 26 residential reentry centers, and 10 properties for lease. The company was founded in 1983 and is based in Brentwood, Tennessee.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is mid-range (P/E 20.6).
Valuation inputs: P/E 20.6, earnings yield +4.8%, momentum +3.5%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is acceptable (ROE +8.3%, ROIC +8.9%).
Profitability stack: net margin +5.3%, ROE +8.3%, ROIC +8.9%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +56.9%, momentum +3.5%, net margin +5.3%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
CoreCivic, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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CoreCivic, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
CoreCivic, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Moderate margins typical of competitive industries. Monitor for pricing pressure or rising costs.
Operating Margin
Healthy operating margins demonstrate effective cost control and strong business fundamentals.
Net Profit Margin
Moderate profitability with room for improvement. Monitor interest expenses and tax efficiency.
Effective Tax Rate
Higher tax burden may reflect limited tax optimization or operations in high-tax jurisdictions.
Profitability Insight
Efficient profit conversion: Minimal margin compression from gross to net indicates lean operations and favorable tax/interest environment.
CoreCivic, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Weak cash conversion. Significant portion of earnings not converting to cash—review working capital trends and capital intensity.
CapEx Intensity
Very high capital intensity consumes most operating cash flow. Limited flexibility for dividends or debt reduction.
FCF Growth Trend
Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.
Working Capital Impact
Significant working capital drain. Growth may be consuming cash through inventory buildup or receivables extension—monitor closely.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Deteriorating cash generation: Both declining FCF and weak conversion rate signal fundamental challenges. Investigate margin pressure, rising costs, or working capital issues.
CoreCivic, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Excellent liquidity position. The company can easily cover its short-term obligations with substantial cushion.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Elevated leverage. Debt exceeds equity, which amplifies both gains and risks. Monitor debt servicing ability.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
CoreCivic, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that CXW stock may decline over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 15.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 14.00 to a high of 17.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 15.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 14.00 to a high of 17.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Significant downside risk. Stock trading well above analyst consensus suggests elevated valuation concerns and potential correction.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Risk-Reward Profile
Unfavorable risk-reward. Downside risk exceeds upside potential. Consider defensive positioning or alternative opportunities.
Analyst Conviction
Bearish or uncertain outlook. Limited upside or poor consensus suggests challenges ahead or fundamental concerns.
Market Sentiment Insight
Consensus overvaluation: Analysts agree the stock is richly valued with limited upside. Consider booking profits or defensive positioning unless you have contrarian conviction in unrecognized catalysts.
CoreCivic, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $2.02M worth of CXW shares, with no buying activity reported.
3 Months
0
0.00
37.5K
757.25K
-757K
-$757K
3-6 Months
0
0.00
12.5K
220.25K
-220K
-$220K
6-9 Months
0
0.00
51.0K
1.04M
-1.0M
-$1.04M
9-12 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
Top Buyers
No buying activity
Top Sellers
Carter, Cole G.
Officer: Chief Administrative Officer
$978K
Grande Anthony L
Officer: Evp, Chief Development Officer
$919K
Marshall Thurgood Jr
Director
$123K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $2.02M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
3 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
Insider Activity Insight
Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.
cxw Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on CXW by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.