Coty Inc.

Coty Inc.

COTYยทNYSE

$1.90

-7.8%
Consumer DefensiveHousehold & Personal Products

Coty Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture, marketing, distribution, and sale of beauty products worldwide. The company provides prestige fragrances, skin care, and color cosmetics products through prestige retailers, including perfumeries, department stores, e-retailers, direct-to-consumer websites, and duty-free shops under the Alexander McQueen, Burberry, Bottega Veneta, Calvin Klein, Cavalli, Chloe, Davidoff, Escada, Gucci, Hugo Boss, Jil Sander, Joop!, Kylie Jenner, Lacoste, Lancaster, Marc Jacobs, Miu Miu, Nikos, philosophy, Kim Kardashian West, and Tiffany & Co. brands. It also offers mass color cosmetics, fragrance, skin care, and body care products primarily through hypermarkets, supermarkets, drug stores, pharmacies, mid-tier department stores, traditional food and drug retailers, and e-commerce retailers under the Adidas, Beckham, Biocolor, Bozzano, Bourjois, Bruno Banani, CoverGirl, Jovan, Max Factor, Mexx, Monange, Nautica, Paixao, Rimmel, Risque, Sally Hansen, Stetson, and 007 James Bond brands. Coty Inc. also sells its products through third-party distributors to approximately 150 countries and territories. The company was founded in 1904 and is based in New York, New York. Coty Inc. is a subsidiary of Cottage Holdco B.V.

At a Glance

Live Snapshot
Market Cap$1.67B
EPS-0.4400
P/E Ratio-4.32
Earnings Date08/19/2026

Intrinsic Alpha Methodology

Thesis Lenses

Signal ยท Driver ยท Risk

Signal

Medium confidence

Valuation multiple is compressed (P/E -4.3).

Valuation inputs: P/E -4.3, earnings yield N/A, momentum -7.8%.

If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.

Driver

High confidence

Return profile is soft (ROE -10.0%, ROIC +2.5%).

Profitability stack: net margin -6.2%, ROE -10.0%, ROIC +2.5%.

Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.

Risk

High confidence

Downside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.

Risk factors: liabilities/assets +66.8%, momentum -7.8%, net margin -6.2%.

Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.

coty

Coty Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory

COTY ยท NYSE

Loading price and EPS data...

Coty Inc.

Coty Inc. Fair Value Envelope

COTY ยท NYSE

Our analysis suggests that COTY has a fair value of HIDDEN per share in the Base Case projection. With shares currently trading at $1.9, this represents a potential HIDDEN relative to our calculated worth for Coty Inc..

Intrinsic Value
Current Price: $1.9
3Y-238.0%
5Y-69.0%
10Y-198.0%
3Y+11.0%
5Y+25.0%
10Y+35.0%
3Y-242.0%
5Y-63.0%
10Y-334.0%
3Y-32.0%
5Y-1068.0%
10Y-2.0%
3Y-50.0%
5Y-187.0%
10Y-21.0%
3Y-2.0%
5Y-29.0%
10Y+68.0%
Coty Inc.

Coty Inc. Profit Bridge

COTY ยท NYSE
Revenue5.89B
Cost of Goods Sold (2.07B)
Gross Profit3.82B
Operating Expenses (3.58B)
Operating Income241.10M
Interest Expense (227.00M)
Other Income/Expense-585.90M
Pretax Income-344.80M
Income Tax (5.40M)
Net Income-367.90M
Net Income
-367.90M

Profitability Analysis

Gross Margin

64.8%

Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.

Operating Margin

4.1%

Minimal operating profit suggests high operating costs or pricing challenges. Scalability is concerning.

Net Profit Margin

-6.2%

Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.

Profitability Insight

Margin squeeze alert: Healthy gross margins but weak operating margins suggest excessive operating expenses. Cost optimization could unlock significant value.

64.84%
Gross Profit Margin
1%
3Y+2.0%
5Y+12.0%
10Y+8.0%
4.09%
Operating Profit Margin
-54%
3Y-10.0%
5Y-131.0%
10Y-30.0%
-6.24%
Net Profit Margin
-527%
3Y-228.0%
5Y-73.0%
10Y-273.0%
-9.98%
Return on Equity
-543%
3Y-227.0%
5Y-66.0%
10Y-123.0%
-3.09%
Return on Assets
-518%
3Y-244.0%
5Y-53.0%
10Y-240.0%
2.55%
Return on Invested Capital
-17%
3Y+67.0%
5Y-175.0%
10Y-58.0%
COTY

Coty Inc. Cash Conversion Engine

COTY ยท NYSE
Net Income-350.20M
Depreciation & Amortization420.00M
Stock-Based Compensation50.00M
Change in Working Capital-312.80M
Others773.10M
Capital Expenditures-215.00M
Free Cash Flow277.60M

Cash Flow Quality Analysis

FCF Conversion Rate

-79.3%

Negative free cash flow despite positive earnings raises concerns about cash generation ability or heavy capital requirements.

CapEx Intensity

43.6%

Capital-intensive operations require significant reinvestment. Monitor whether CapEx is maintenance or growth-oriented.

FCF Growth Trend

-24.9%

Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.

Working Capital Impact

-$312.80M

Significant working capital drain. Growth may be consuming cash through inventory buildup or receivables extensionโ€”monitor closely.

Cash Flow Quality Insight

Deteriorating cash generation: Both declining FCF and weak conversion rate signal fundamental challenges. Investigate margin pressure, rising costs, or working capital issues.

coty

Coty Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile

COTY ยท NYSE
Cash & Cash Equivalents257.10M
Net Receivables0.00
Inventory786.30M
Other Current Assets892.10M
Total Current Assets2 B
Property, Plant & Equipment872.70M
Goodwill & Intangible Assets6.67B
Long-Term Investments0.00
Other Non-Current Assets198.70M
Total Non-Current Assets1 B
Total Assets
10.23B

Financial Health Analysis

Current Ratio

0.82x

Warning: Liquidity concerns. Current assets may not be sufficient to cover short-term obligations.

Debt-to-Equity Ratio

1.92x

Elevated leverage. Debt exceeds equity, which amplifies both gains and risks. Monitor debt servicing ability.

Working Capital

-420800000

Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assetsโ€”potential liquidity stress.

Asset Composition

19% Current

Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.

Financial Health Insight

Financial stress indicators: Both liquidity and leverage metrics raise concerns. The company may face challenges meeting obligations and should focus on strengthening its balance sheet.

coty

Coty Inc. Street Expectations Map

COTY ยท NYSE

Wall Street analysts project that COTY stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 3.94, with estimates ranging from a low of 2.00 to a high of 8.00.

Lowest Target
2.00
5.26%
Consensus Target
3.94
107.37%
Highest Target
8.00
321.05%

The consensus 1-year price target stands at 3.94, with estimates ranging from a low of 2.00 to a high of 8.00.

Analyst Consensus Analysis

Upside Potential

+107.4%

Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.

Analyst Agreement

152.3% spread

High uncertainty. Very wide target spread indicates significant disagreement among analystsโ€”major valuation uncertainty or transformation underway.

Analyst Conviction

Low

High uncertainty: Wide dispersion indicates analysts struggle to agree on valuationโ€”proceed with caution and independent analysis.

Market Sentiment Insight

High risk, high reward: Substantial upside potential exists, but wide analyst disagreement signals execution risk or unclear catalysts. Thorough due diligence essential before committing capital.

coty

Coty Inc. Insider Positioning

COTY ยท NYSE

During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $1.53M worth of COTY shares, with no selling activity reported.

3 Months

Bought

83.0K

200.29K

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+200K

+$200K

3-6 Months

Bought

5.0K

13.25K

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+13K

+$13K

6-9 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+0

+$0

9-12 Months

Bought

334.9K

1.32M

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+1.3M

+$1.32M

Top Buyers

1
NS

Nabi Sue

Director, Officer: Chief Executive Officer

260.0K sharesโ€ข1 transactions

$1.02M

2
VBG

Von Bretten Gordon

Director, Officer: President - Consumer Beauty

83.0K sharesโ€ข1 transactions

$200K

3
BK

Blazewicz Kristin

Officer: Chief Legal Officer

29.4K sharesโ€ข1 transactions

$127K

4
SP

Srinivasan Priya

Officer: Chief People & Purpose Officer

30.0K sharesโ€ข1 transactions

$115K

5
ML

Mercier Laurent

Officer: Chief Financial Officer

20.5K sharesโ€ข3 transactions

$74K

Top Sellers

No selling activity

Insider Activity Analysis

Net Insider Sentiment

Bullish

Strong bullish signal with $1.53M net buying. Insiders are aggressively accumulating shares, suggesting significant confidence in future prospects.

Buy/Sell Ratio

โˆž:1

Perfect buy/sell ratio. Only buying activity with zero sellingโ€”the most bullish possible insider signal.

Recent Trend (3 Months)

$200K

Very strong recent buying momentum. Recent insider purchases significantly outpace sales, suggesting near-term optimism.

Insider Participation

High Buying

5 insider buyers vs. 0 sellers. Broad-based buying across management team suggests widespread confidence.

Insider Activity Insight

Strong confluence of bullish signals: High buy/sell ratio, multiple insiders participating, and recent buying momentum all point to significant insider confidence. This level of coordinated buying often precedes positive developments.

0.19%
Dividend Yield
53%
3Y+481.0%
5Y-
10Y-100.0%
ย 

coty Dividend History

COTY
10Y CAGR 5%
Latest $0.125
Annual $0.625
Stable dividend payments
Last Period: +0%