Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
$28.75
-1.7%Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants. As of February 15, 2022, it owned and operated approximately 3,000 restaurants in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and rest of Europe. The company was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Newport Beach, California.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is elevated (P/E 25.0).
Valuation inputs: P/E 25.0, earnings yield +4.0%, momentum -1.7%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is strong (ROE +54.3%, ROIC +19.0%).
Profitability stack: net margin +12.9%, ROE +54.3%, ROIC +19.0%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +68.5%, momentum -1.7%, net margin +12.9%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
Performance Analysis
EPS Growth
Slight earnings decline may be temporary. Monitor future quarters for trend reversal.
Price-EPS Relationship
Both price and earnings are declining together, reflecting deteriorating business fundamentals.
Stock Price Change
Over the 1Y period, stock price has decreased by 44.9%.
P/E Ratio (TTM)
Elevated P/E indicates investors expect strong future growth.
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Moderate margins typical of competitive industries. Monitor for pricing pressure or rising costs.
Operating Margin
Healthy operating margins demonstrate effective cost control and strong business fundamentals.
Net Profit Margin
Strong net margins indicate efficient operations and favorable tax/interest management.
Effective Tax Rate
Moderate tax rate typical for most corporations. Represents standard tax burden on profits.
Profitability Insight
Efficient profit conversion: Minimal margin compression from gross to net indicates lean operations and favorable tax/interest environment.
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Strong cash conversion. Most reported earnings translate into actual cash flow, suggesting solid fundamentals.
CapEx Intensity
Moderate capital requirements typical of many stable businesses. Healthy balance between reinvestment and cash generation.
FCF Growth Trend
Flat FCF growth. Stable but not expanding—monitor for signs of business maturity or temporary headwinds.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Solid cash generation: Positive free cash flow with reasonable earnings quality provides financial flexibility for growth investments, debt reduction, or shareholder returns.
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Warning: Liquidity concerns. Current assets may not be sufficient to cover short-term obligations.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets—potential liquidity stress.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Financial Health Insight
Financial stress indicators: Both liquidity and leverage metrics raise concerns. The company may face challenges meeting obligations and should focus on strengthening its balance sheet.
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that CMG stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 43.72, with estimates ranging from a low of 36.00 to a high of 52.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 43.72, with estimates ranging from a low of 36.00 to a high of 52.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
Good consensus alignment. Moderate target spread reflects general agreement on value drivers with some variance in assumptions.
Analyst Conviction
Positive outlook with reasonable agreement. Analysts generally optimistic about prospects with manageable uncertainty.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $15.09M worth of CMG shares, with no buying activity reported.
3 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
3-6 Months
0
0.00
132.1K
5.00M
-5.0M
-$5.00M
6-9 Months
0
0.00
61.9K
2.15M
-2.1M
-$2.15M
9-12 Months
0
0.00
152.0K
7.94M
-7.9M
-$7.94M
Top Buyers
No buying activity
Top Sellers
Garner Curtis E
Officer: Pres, Chief Strgy & Tech Off
$12.60M
Eskenazi Ilene
Officer: Chief Human Resources Officer
$1.15M
Boatwright Scott
Officer: Chief Executive Officer
$997K
Filikrushel Patricia
Director
$229K
Hickenlooper Robin S
Director
$115K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $15.09M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Insider Participation
5 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
No Dividend Yield Data
CMG has not reported any dividend yield values in the available annual periods.
cmg Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on CMG by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.