$189.19
+3.2%As of December 31, 2020, the Company owned or held a direct or indirect ownership interest in 291 apartment communities containing 86,025 apartment homes in 11 states and the District of Columbia, of which 18 communities were under development and one community was under redevelopment. The Company is an equity REIT in the business of developing, redeveloping, acquiring and managing apartment communities in leading metropolitan areas in New England, the New York/New Jersey Metro area, the Mid-Atlantic, the Pacific Northwest, and Northern and Southern California, as well as in the Company's expansion markets consisting of Southeast Florida and Denver, Colorado (the Expansion Markets).
Warren Buffett's Owner Earnings DCF analysis for intrinsic value calculation
Base year metrics used for projections
Forecast period and terminal assumptions
Calculation flow from present value to intrinsic value per share
Operating Cash Flow - Maintenance CapEx = Owner Earnings
| Metric | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | Year 6 | Year 7 | Year 8 | Year 9 | Year 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $1.7B | $1.7B | $1.7B | $1.7B | $1.7B | $1.7B | $1.7B | $1.7B | $1.7B | $1.7B |
| Maintenance CapEx | -$53.1M | -$53.3M | -$53.4M | -$53.6M | -$53.7M | -$53.9M | -$54.0M | -$54.1M | -$54.3M | -$54.4M |
| Owner Earnings | $1.6B | $1.6B | $1.6B | $1.6B | $1.6B | $1.7B | $1.7B | $1.7B | $1.7B | $1.7B |
| Discount Factor | 0.926 | 0.857 | 0.794 | 0.735 | 0.681 | 0.630 | 0.583 | 0.540 | 0.500 | 0.463 |
| Present Value | $1.5B | $1.4B | $1.3B | $1.2B | $1.1B | $1.0B | $966.6M | $897.4M | $833.2M | $773.6M |
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.