ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc.
$17.07
-0.35%ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. invests in residential mortgage-backed securities (MBS) in the United States. The company's securities portfolio primarily consists of the United States Government-sponsored entity's (GSE) and the Government National Mortgage Administration's issued or guaranteed securities backed by fixed rate, hybrid adjustable rate, and adjustable-rate home loans, as well as unsecured notes and bonds issued by the GSE and the United States treasuries, as well as money market instruments. It also invests in other securities backed by residential mortgages for which the payment of principal and interest is not guaranteed by a GSE or government agency. The company has elected to be taxed as a real estate investment trust under the Internal Revenue Code. As a result, it would not be subject to corporate income tax on that portion of its net income that is distributed to shareholders. ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. was incorporated in 2008 and is based in Vero Beach, Florida.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E 5.2).
Valuation inputs: P/E 5.2, earnings yield +19.4%, momentum -0.4%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is acceptable (ROE +14.3%, ROIC +6.5%).
Profitability stack: net margin +24.7%, ROE +14.3%, ROIC +6.5%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +89.2%, momentum -0.4%, net margin +24.7%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
Performance Analysis
EPS Growth
Strong earnings growth indicates robust business expansion and improving profitability.
Price-EPS Relationship
Stock price is moving in line with earnings growth—a healthy sign of fundamental-driven valuation.
Stock Price Change
Over the 1Y period, stock price has increased by 3.6%.
P/E Ratio (TTM)
Relatively low P/E may indicate undervaluation or lower growth expectations.
Key Insight
Strong earnings growth (+651.4%) is outpacing price appreciation (+3.6%), potentially indicating an attractive entry point as the market may not have fully recognized the improving fundamentals.
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.
Operating Margin
Outstanding operational efficiency. The company generates substantial profit from core operations.
Net Profit Margin
Exceptional profitability. The company converts a significant portion of revenue to bottom-line earnings.
Effective Tax Rate
Below-average tax rate suggests effective tax planning, favorable jurisdictions, or tax credits.
Profitability Insight
Exceptional profitability across all levels: Strong pricing power, efficient operations, and healthy bottom line indicate a high-quality business with sustainable competitive advantages.
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Weak cash conversion. Significant portion of earnings not converting to cash—review working capital trends and capital intensity.
FCF Growth Trend
Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Deteriorating cash generation: Both declining FCF and weak conversion rate signal fundamental challenges. Investigate margin pressure, rising costs, or working capital issues.
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that ARR stock may experience modest gains over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 18.25, with estimates ranging from a low of 18.00 to a high of 18.50.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 18.25, with estimates ranging from a low of 18.00 to a high of 18.50.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Moderate upside. Analysts expect positive returns but with limited margin of safety. Consider entry timing.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Analyst Conviction
Positive outlook with reasonable agreement. Analysts generally optimistic about prospects with manageable uncertainty.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $33K and sold $123K worth of ARR shares, resulting in $90K of net selling activity.
3 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
3-6 Months
0
0.00
6.8K
123.44K
-123K
-$123K
6-9 Months
2.2K
32.99K
0
0.00
+33K
+$33K
9-12 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
Top Buyers
Paperin Stewart J
Director
$16K
Downey Carolyn
Director
$16K
Top Sellers
Hain Robert C
Director
$123K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $90K net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Weak buy/sell ratio. Selling significantly exceeds buying—monitor for potential fundamental concerns.
Insider Participation
2 insider buyers vs. 1 sellers. More insiders buying than selling indicates positive sentiment.
arr Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on ARR by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.