Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc.
$212.78
-1.2%Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc., a mining company, produces, processes, and sells met and thermal coal in Virginia and West Virginia. As of December 31, 2021, it operated twenty active mines and eight coal preparation and load-out facilities. The company was formerly known as Contura Energy, Inc. and changed its name to Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. in February 2021. Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. was incorporated in 2016 and is headquartered in Bristol, Tennessee.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
Medium confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E -44.8).
Valuation inputs: P/E -44.8, earnings yield N/A, momentum -1.2%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE -4.0%, ROIC -2.1%).
Profitability stack: net margin -2.9%, ROE -4.0%, ROIC -2.1%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +32.2%, momentum -1.2%, net margin -2.9%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Thin margins leave little room for error. Cost management and pricing strategy are critical.
Operating Margin
Operating losses indicate the core business is unprofitable. Requires restructuring or revenue growth.
Net Profit Margin
Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.
Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Negative free cash flow despite positive earnings raises concerns about cash generation ability or heavy capital requirements.
CapEx Intensity
Very high capital intensity consumes most operating cash flow. Limited flexibility for dividends or debt reduction.
FCF Growth Trend
Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.
Working Capital Impact
Significant working capital drain. Growth may be consuming cash through inventory buildup or receivables extension—monitor closely.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Deteriorating cash generation: Both declining FCF and weak conversion rate signal fundamental challenges. Investigate margin pressure, rising costs, or working capital issues.
Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Excellent liquidity position. The company can easily cover its short-term obligations with substantial cushion.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Balanced capital structure with moderate leverage. Equity exceeds debt, suggesting healthy financial stability.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Financial Health Insight
Strong financial foundation: Excellent liquidity combined with conservative leverage suggests the company is well-positioned to weather economic uncertainties and fund growth opportunities.
Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that AMR stock may decline over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 189.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 185.00 to a high of 194.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 189.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 185.00 to a high of 194.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Downside risk. Current price above analyst targets indicates potential overvaluation. Exercise caution and review catalysts.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Risk-Reward Profile
Unfavorable risk-reward. Downside risk exceeds upside potential. Consider defensive positioning or alternative opportunities.
Analyst Conviction
Bearish or uncertain outlook. Limited upside or poor consensus suggests challenges ahead or fundamental concerns.
Market Sentiment Insight
Consensus overvaluation: Analysts agree the stock is richly valued with limited upside. Consider booking profits or defensive positioning unless you have contrarian conviction in unrecognized catalysts.
Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $1.40M and sold $885K worth of AMR shares, resulting in $517K of net buying activity.
3 Months
4.7K
888.00K
460
98.73K
+789K
+$789K
3-6 Months
2.0K
373.04K
4.3K
786.07K
-413K
-$413K
6-9 Months
899
141.11K
0
0.00
+141K
+$141K
9-12 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
Top Buyers
Courtis Kenneth S.
Director
$1.40M
Top Sellers
Munsey Joshua Todd
Officer: Chief Financial Officer
$462K
Horn Daniel E.
Officer: Chief Commercial Officer
$324K
Manno Mark Matthew
Officer: Evp, Gc & Secretary
$99K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Moderately bullish with $517K net buying. Insiders show cautious optimism through measured share purchases.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Positive buy/sell ratio. Buying exceeds or matches selling, indicating net positive insider sentiment.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Very strong recent buying momentum. Recent insider purchases significantly outpace sales, suggesting near-term optimism.
Insider Participation
3 insider sellers vs. 1 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
Insider Activity Insight
Sustained buying momentum: Consistent net buying over multiple quarters suggests insiders maintain conviction in the company's prospects. This is particularly meaningful if buying continued through market volatility.
amr Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on AMR by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.