$218.25
+2.6%Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc., a mining company, produces, processes, and sells met and thermal coal in Virginia and West Virginia. As of December 31, 2021, it operated twenty active mines and eight coal preparation and load-out facilities. The company was formerly known as Contura Energy, Inc. and changed its name to Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. in February 2021. Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. was incorporated in 2016 and is headquartered in Bristol, Tennessee.
Warren Buffett's Owner Earnings DCF analysis for intrinsic value calculation
Base year metrics used for projections
Forecast period and terminal assumptions
Calculation flow from present value to intrinsic value per share
Operating Cash Flow - Maintenance CapEx = Owner Earnings
| Metric | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | Year 6 | Year 7 | Year 8 | Year 9 | Year 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $72.5M | $36.2M | $18.1M | $9.1M | $4.5M | $2.3M | $1.1M | $566.1K | $283.1K | $141.5K |
| Maintenance CapEx | -$12.7M | -$6.4M | -$3.2M | -$1.6M | -$794.7K | -$397.4K | -$198.7K | -$99.3K | -$49.7K | -$24.8K |
| Owner Earnings | $59.7M | $29.9M | $14.9M | $7.5M | $3.7M | $1.9M | $933.6K | $466.8K | $233.4K | $116.7K |
| Discount Factor | 0.926 | 0.857 | 0.794 | 0.735 | 0.681 | 0.630 | 0.583 | 0.540 | 0.500 | 0.463 |
| Present Value | $55.3M | $25.6M | $11.9M | $5.5M | $2.5M | $1.2M | $544.7K | $252.2K | $116.8K | $54.1K |
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.