Ambac Financial Group, Inc.
$8.29
+0.0000%Ambac Financial Group, Inc., a financial services holding company, provides financial guarantees in the United States, the United Kingdom, Italy, Austria, Australia, France, and Internationally. It offers financial guarantee insurance policies; specialty property & casualty program insurance; credit derivative contracts; and interest rate derivative transactions, as well as managing general agency / underwriting services. The company was incorporated in 1991 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
Medium confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E -0.8).
Valuation inputs: P/E -0.8, earnings yield N/A, momentum 0.0%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE -64.9%, ROIC -0.7%).
Profitability stack: net margin -2.4%, ROE -64.9%, ROIC -0.7%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +85.2%, momentum 0.0%, net margin -2.4%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Ambac Financial Group, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Ambac Financial Group, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Ambac Financial Group, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Strong gross margins indicate healthy pricing and efficient production or service delivery.
Operating Margin
Operating losses indicate the core business is unprofitable. Requires restructuring or revenue growth.
Net Profit Margin
Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.
Profitability Insight
Margin squeeze alert: Healthy gross margins but weak operating margins suggest excessive operating expenses. Cost optimization could unlock significant value.
Ambac Financial Group, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Negative free cash flow despite positive earnings raises concerns about cash generation ability or heavy capital requirements.
FCF Growth Trend
Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Deteriorating cash generation: Both declining FCF and weak conversion rate signal fundamental challenges. Investigate margin pressure, rising costs, or working capital issues.
Ambac Financial Group, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Balanced capital structure with moderate leverage. Equity exceeds debt, suggesting healthy financial stability.
Working Capital
Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets—potential liquidity stress.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Ambac Financial Group, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that AMBC stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 10.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 10.00 to a high of 10.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 10.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 10.00 to a high of 10.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Strong upside potential. Consensus indicates attractive return opportunity with favorable risk-reward profile.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Analyst Conviction
Strong buy conviction: High upside with tight consensus suggests compelling investment opportunity backed by analyst confidence.
Market Sentiment Insight
Rare opportunity: Exceptional upside potential with strong analyst consensus creates a compelling setup. The combination of significant price target premium and tight agreement suggests high-conviction undervaluation that may attract institutional capital.
Ambac Financial Group, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $389K worth of AMBC shares, with no selling activity reported.
3 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
3-6 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
6-9 Months
25.0K
213.70K
0
0.00
+214K
+$214K
9-12 Months
25.0K
175.75K
0
0.00
+176K
+$176K
Top Buyers
Leblanc Claude
Director, Officer: Chief Executive Officer
$389K
Smith R Sharon
Officer: Exec Vp & Group Coo
$205
Top Sellers
No selling activity
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bullish signal with $389K net buying. Insiders are aggressively accumulating shares, suggesting significant confidence in future prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Perfect buy/sell ratio. Only buying activity with zero selling—the most bullish possible insider signal.
Insider Participation
2 insider buyers vs. 0 sellers. Broad-based buying across management team suggests widespread confidence.
Insider Activity Insight
Compelling insider conviction: The combination of strong buy/sell ratio and multiple buyers suggests insiders see attractive risk/reward. Consider this alongside fundamental analysis for confirmation.
No Dividend Yield Data
AMBC has not reported any dividend yield values in the available annual periods.
ambc Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on AMBC by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.