Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation
$174.70
-2.0%Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation provides a secondary market for various loans made to borrowers in the United States. It operates through four segments: Farm & Ranch, USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) Guarantees, Rural Utilities, and Institutional Credit. The Farm & Ranch segment purchases and retains eligible mortgage loans that are secured by first liens on agricultural real estate; securitizes eligible mortgage loans, and guarantees the timely payment of principal and interest on securities representing interests in or obligations secured by pools of mortgage loans; and issues long-term standby purchase commitments (LTSPC) on designated eligible mortgage loans. The USDA Guarantees segment purchases portions of certain agricultural and rural development loans guaranteed by the USDA. The Rural Utilities segment purchases and guarantees securities that are backed by loans for electric or telecommunications facilities by lenders organized as cooperatives to borrowers; and purchases eligible rural utilities loans and guarantees of securities backed by those loans, as well as LTSPCs for pools of eligible rural utilities loans. The Institutional Credit segment guarantees and purchases general obligations of lenders and other financial institutions that are secured by pools of loans eligible under the Farmer Mac's Farm & Ranch, USDA Guarantees, or Rural Utilities lines of business. Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Washington, District of Columbia.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E 10.4).
Valuation inputs: P/E 10.4, earnings yield +9.6%, momentum -2.0%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE +12.1%, ROIC +0.6%).
Profitability stack: net margin +15.7%, ROE +12.1%, ROIC +0.6%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +95.2%, momentum -2.0%, net margin +15.7%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation Fair Value Envelope
Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Moderate margins typical of competitive industries. Monitor for pricing pressure or rising costs.
Operating Margin
Healthy operating margins demonstrate effective cost control and strong business fundamentals.
Net Profit Margin
Strong net margins indicate efficient operations and favorable tax/interest management.
Effective Tax Rate
Moderate tax rate typical for most corporations. Represents standard tax burden on profits.
Profitability Insight
Efficient profit conversion: Minimal margin compression from gross to net indicates lean operations and favorable tax/interest environment.
Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Weak cash conversion. Significant portion of earnings not converting to cash—review working capital trends and capital intensity.
FCF Growth Trend
Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.
Working Capital Impact
Moderate working capital outflow. Typical for growing businesses, but ensure it's supporting revenue growth, not inefficiency.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Deteriorating cash generation: Both declining FCF and weak conversion rate signal fundamental challenges. Investigate margin pressure, rising costs, or working capital issues.
Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Balanced asset mix between current and non-current assets, typical of many stable businesses.
Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that AGM stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 233.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 233.00 to a high of 233.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 233.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 233.00 to a high of 233.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Analyst Conviction
Strong buy conviction: High upside with tight consensus suggests compelling investment opportunity backed by analyst confidence.
Market Sentiment Insight
Rare opportunity: Exceptional upside potential with strong analyst consensus creates a compelling setup. The combination of significant price target premium and tight agreement suggests high-conviction undervaluation that may attract institutional capital.
Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $167K and sold $1.18M worth of AGM shares, resulting in $1.01M of net selling activity.
3 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
3-6 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
6-9 Months
383
64.33K
0
0.00
+64K
+$64K
9-12 Months
851
102.44K
5.7K
1.18M
-1.1M
-$1.08M
Top Buyers
Carpenter Zachary
Officer: Evp - Chief Business Officer
$102K
Gales Amy H
Director
$20K
Engebretsen James R
Director
$17K
Plagge Jeffrey L.
Director
$8K
Sexton Robert G
Director
$8K
Top Sellers
Nordholm Bradford T
Officer: President And Ceo
$871K
Ramsey Gregory
Officer: Principal Accounting Officer
$310K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $1.01M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Weak buy/sell ratio. Selling significantly exceeds buying—monitor for potential fundamental concerns.
Insider Participation
5 insider buyers vs. 2 sellers. Broad-based buying across management team suggests widespread confidence.
agm Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on AGM by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.