Aflac Incorporated
$114.50
+0.77%Aflac Incorporated, through its subsidiaries, provides supplemental health and life insurance products. It operates through two segments, Aflac Japan and Aflac U.S. The Aflac Japan segment offers cancer, medical, nursing care income support, GIFT, and whole and term life insurance products, as well as WAYS and child endowment plans under saving type insurance products in Japan. The Aflac U.S. segment provides cancer, accident, short-term disability, critical illness, hospital indemnity, dental, vision, long-term care and disability, and term and whole life insurance products in the United States. It sells its products through sales associates, brokers, independent corporate agencies, individual agencies, and affiliated corporate agencies. The company was founded in 1955 and is based in Columbus, Georgia.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is mid-range (P/E 16.7).
Valuation inputs: P/E 16.7, earnings yield +6.0%, momentum +0.8%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE +12.4%, ROIC +3.2%).
Profitability stack: net margin +20.9%, ROE +12.4%, ROIC +3.2%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile looks controlled across current risk inputs.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +74.7%, momentum +0.8%, net margin +20.9%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Aflac Incorporated Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Aflac Incorporated Fair Value Envelope
Aflac Incorporated Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Strong gross margins indicate healthy pricing and efficient production or service delivery.
Operating Margin
Outstanding operational efficiency. The company generates substantial profit from core operations.
Net Profit Margin
Exceptional profitability. The company converts a significant portion of revenue to bottom-line earnings.
Effective Tax Rate
Moderate tax rate typical for most corporations. Represents standard tax burden on profits.
Profitability Insight
Efficient profit conversion: Minimal margin compression from gross to net indicates lean operations and favorable tax/interest environment.
Aflac Incorporated Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Moderate conversion rate. Some gap between earnings and cash flow may warrant investigation into working capital or non-cash items.
FCF Growth Trend
Declining FCF warrants attention. Investigate whether due to temporary factors or fundamental deterioration.
Working Capital Impact
Significant working capital drain. Growth may be consuming cash through inventory buildup or receivables extension—monitor closely.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Working capital strain: Significant cash tied up in operations. Monitor receivables collection, inventory turns, and payment terms to optimize cash conversion cycle.
Aflac Incorporated Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Aflac Incorporated Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that AFL stock may experience modest gains over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 115.17, with estimates ranging from a low of 99.00 to a high of 130.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 115.17, with estimates ranging from a low of 99.00 to a high of 130.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Fair value territory. Stock trading near consensus target suggests limited near-term catalysts. Focus on fundamental developments.
Analyst Agreement
Good consensus alignment. Moderate target spread reflects general agreement on value drivers with some variance in assumptions.
Risk-Reward Profile
Balanced risk-reward. Upside and downside potential relatively symmetric. Suitable for moderate risk tolerance with conviction in thesis.
Analyst Conviction
Neutral sentiment. Fair value pricing with moderate agreement suggests wait-and-see approach or catalyst-driven opportunity.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
Aflac Incorporated Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $76.57M worth of AFL shares, with no buying activity reported.
3 Months
0
0.00
597.0K
67.30M
-67.3M
-$67.30M
3-6 Months
0
0.00
55.1K
6.23M
-6.2M
-$6.23M
6-9 Months
0
0.00
26.3K
2.95M
-2.9M
-$2.95M
9-12 Months
0
0.00
1.0K
102.57K
-103K
-$103K
Top Buyers
No buying activity
Top Sellers
Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd.
10 Percent Owner
$66.30M
Beaver Steven Kent
Officer: Evp, Cfo Aflac Japan
$2.47M
Tillman Audrey B
Officer: Sr. Executive Vice President
$2.17M
Koide Masatoshi
Officer: Pres. And Rep. Director, Alij
$1.70M
Broden Max
Officer: Sr. Evp, Cfo
$1.53M
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $76.57M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
5 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
Insider Activity Insight
Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.
afl Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on AFL by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.