American Financial Group, Inc.
$128.87
+0.47%American Financial Group, Inc., an insurance holding company, provides specialty property and casualty insurance products in the United States. It offers property and transportation insurance products, such as physical damage and liability coverage for buses and trucks, inland and ocean marine, agricultural-related products, and other commercial property and specialty transportation coverages; specialty casualty insurance, including primarily excess and surplus, executive and professional liability, general liability, umbrella and excess liability, and specialty coverage in targeted markets, as well as customized programs for small to mid-sized businesses and workers' compensation insurance; and specialty financial insurance products comprising risk management insurance programs for lending and leasing institutions, fidelity and surety products, and trade credit insurance. The company sells its property and casualty insurance products through independent insurance agents and brokers. American Financial Group, Inc. was founded in 1872 and is headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E 12.8).
Valuation inputs: P/E 12.8, earnings yield +7.8%, momentum +0.5%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is acceptable (ROE +17.5%, ROIC +9.7%).
Profitability stack: net margin +10.3%, ROE +17.5%, ROIC +9.7%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +85.2%, momentum +0.5%, net margin +10.3%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
American Financial Group, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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American Financial Group, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
American Financial Group, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Strong gross margins indicate healthy pricing and efficient production or service delivery.
Operating Margin
Acceptable margins but limited operational leverage. Operating expense control is important.
Net Profit Margin
Strong net margins indicate efficient operations and favorable tax/interest management.
Effective Tax Rate
Moderate tax rate typical for most corporations. Represents standard tax burden on profits.
Profitability Insight
Room for improvement: Moderate profitability with opportunities to enhance margins through better cost management or pricing strategy.
American Financial Group, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Exceptional cash generation: High-quality earnings converting to growing free cash flow. The company demonstrates strong pricing power, efficient operations, and disciplined capital allocation.
American Financial Group, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Warning: Liquidity concerns. Current assets may not be sufficient to cover short-term obligations.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets—potential liquidity stress.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Financial Health Insight
Financial stress indicators: Both liquidity and leverage metrics raise concerns. The company may face challenges meeting obligations and should focus on strengthening its balance sheet.
American Financial Group, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that AFG stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 152.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 140.00 to a high of 165.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 152.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 140.00 to a high of 165.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Strong upside potential. Consensus indicates attractive return opportunity with favorable risk-reward profile.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Analyst Conviction
Strong buy conviction: High upside with tight consensus suggests compelling investment opportunity backed by analyst confidence.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
American Financial Group, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $1.94M worth of AFG shares, with no buying activity reported.
3 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
3-6 Months
0
0.00
1.7K
222.35K
-222K
-$222K
6-9 Months
0
0.00
1.8K
253.24K
-253K
-$253K
9-12 Months
0
0.00
10.9K
1.47M
-1.5M
-$1.47M
Top Buyers
No buying activity
Top Sellers
Lindner Stephen Craig Jr
Director
$1.34M
Hertzman Brian S.
Officer: Svp, Cfo
$476K
Murray Amy Y
Director
$126K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $1.94M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Insider Participation
3 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
afg Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on AFG by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.