Archer-Daniels-Midland Company

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company

ADMยทNYSE

$84.11

+2.0%
Consumer DefensiveAgricultural Farm Products

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company procures, transports, stores, processes, and merchandises agricultural commodities, products, and ingredients in the United States, Switzerland, Cayman Islands, Brazil, Mexico, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Ag Services and Oilseeds, Carbohydrate Solutions, and Nutrition. It procures, stores, cleans, and transports agricultural raw materials, such as oilseeds, corn, wheat, milo, oats, and barley. The company also engages in the agricultural commodity and feed product import, export, and distribution; and structured trade finance activities. In addition, it offers vegetable oils and protein meals; ingredients for the food, feed, energy, and industrial customers; crude vegetable oils, salad oils, margarine, shortening, and other food products; and partially refined oils to produce biodiesel and glycols for use in chemicals, paints, and other industrial products. Further, the company provides peanuts, peanut-derived ingredients, and cotton cellulose pulp; sweeteners, corn and wheat starches, syrup, glucose, wheat flour, and dextrose; alcohol and other food and animal feed ingredients; ethyl alcohol and ethanol; corn gluten feed and meal; distillers' grains; and citric acids. Additionally, the company provides natural flavors, flavor systems, natural colors, proteins, emulsifiers, soluble fiber, polyols, hydrocolloids, and natural health and nutrition products, including probiotics, prebiotics, enzymes, and botanical extracts; and other specialty food and feed ingredients; edible beans; formula feeds, and animal health and nutrition products; and contract and private label pet treats and foods. It also offers futures commission merchant; commodity brokerage services; cash margins and securities pledged to commodity exchange clearinghouses; and cash pledged as security under certain insurance arrangements. The company was founded in 1902 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

At a Glance

Live Snapshot
Market Cap$40.54B
EPS2.2300
P/E Ratio37.72
Earnings Date08/04/2026

Intrinsic Alpha Methodology

Thesis Lenses

Signal ยท Driver ยท Risk

Signal

High confidence

Valuation multiple is elevated (P/E 37.7).

Valuation inputs: P/E 37.7, earnings yield +2.7%, momentum +2.0%.

If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.

Driver

High confidence

Return profile is soft (ROE +4.7%, ROIC +3.5%).

Profitability stack: net margin +1.3%, ROE +4.7%, ROIC +3.5%.

Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.

Risk

High confidence

Risk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.

Risk factors: liabilities/assets +33.6%, momentum +2.0%, net margin +1.3%.

Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.

adm

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company Market vs Earnings Trajectory

ADM ยท NYSE

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Archer-Daniels-Midland Company

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company Fair Value Envelope

ADM ยท NYSE

Our analysis suggests that ADM has a fair value of HIDDEN per share in the Base Case projection. With shares currently trading at $84.11, this represents a potential HIDDEN relative to our calculated worth for Archer-Daniels-Midland Company.

Intrinsic Value
Current Price: $84.11
3Y-71.0%
5Y-29.0%
10Y+2.0%
3Y-21.0%
5Y+25.0%
10Y+29.0%
3Y-75.0%
5Y-39.0%
10Y-16.0%
3Y+57.0%
5Y-328.0%
10Y+270.0%
3Y+95.0%
5Y-231.0%
10Y+609.0%
3Y-42.0%
5Y-30.0%
10Y-13.0%
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company Profit Bridge

ADM ยท NYSE
Revenue80.27B
Cost of Goods Sold (75.24B)
Gross Profit5.03B
Operating Expenses (3.61B)
Operating Income1.42B
Interest Expense (612.00M)
Other Income/Expense-169.00M
Pretax Income1.25B
Income Tax (182.00M)
Net Income1.08B
Net Income
1.08B

Profitability Analysis

Gross Margin

6.3%

Thin margins leave little room for error. Cost management and pricing strategy are critical.

Operating Margin

1.8%

Minimal operating profit suggests high operating costs or pricing challenges. Scalability is concerning.

Net Profit Margin

1.3%

Minimal profitability after all expenses. Limited financial flexibility for reinvestment or shareholder returns.

Effective Tax Rate

14.5%

Below-average tax rate suggests effective tax planning, favorable jurisdictions, or tax credits.

Profitability Insight

Efficient profit conversion: Minimal margin compression from gross to net indicates lean operations and favorable tax/interest environment.

6.27%
Gross Profit Margin
-7%
3Y-16.0%
5Y-9.0%
10Y+8.0%
1.77%
Operating Profit Margin
-27%
3Y-57.0%
5Y-35.0%
10Y-32.0%
1.34%
Net Profit Margin
-36%
3Y-69.0%
5Y-51.0%
10Y-35.0%
4.74%
Return on Equity
-42%
3Y-73.0%
5Y-46.0%
10Y-36.0%
3.11%
Return on Assets
-8%
3Y-57.0%
5Y-13.0%
10Y-3.0%
3.51%
Return on Invested Capital
-22%
3Y-63.0%
5Y-29.0%
10Y-18.0%
ADM

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company Cash Conversion Engine

ADM ยท NYSE
Net Income1.07B
Depreciation & Amortization1.18B
Stock-Based Compensation0.00
Change in Working Capital2.76B
Others435.00M
Capital Expenditures-1.25B
Free Cash Flow4.20B

Cash Flow Quality Analysis

FCF Conversion Rate

391.8%

Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.

CapEx Intensity

22.9%

Moderate capital requirements typical of many stable businesses. Healthy balance between reinvestment and cash generation.

FCF Growth Trend

+242.6%

Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.

Working Capital Impact

+$2.76B

Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.

Cash Flow Quality Insight

Exceptional cash generation: High-quality earnings converting to growing free cash flow. The company demonstrates strong pricing power, efficient operations, and disciplined capital allocation.

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Archer-Daniels-Midland Company Funding & Solvency Profile

ADM ยท NYSE
Cash & Cash Equivalents591.00M
Net Receivables0.00
Inventory0.00
Other Current Assets0.00
Total Current Assets624 M
Property, Plant & Equipment10.97B
Goodwill & Intangible Assets6.56B
Long-Term Investments5.80B
Other Non-Current Assets-5.80B
Total Non-Current Assets11 B
Total Assets
18.16B

Financial Health Analysis

Current Ratio

0.36x

Warning: Liquidity concerns. Current assets may not be sufficient to cover short-term obligations.

Debt-to-Equity Ratio

1.13x

Elevated leverage. Debt exceeds equity, which amplifies both gains and risks. Monitor debt servicing ability.

Working Capital

-1095000000

Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assetsโ€”potential liquidity stress.

Asset Composition

3% Current

Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.

Financial Health Insight

Negative working capital with limited cash reserves requires immediate attentionโ€”potential liquidity crisis if not addressed promptly.

adm

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company Street Expectations Map

ADM ยท NYSE

Wall Street analysts project that ADM stock may decline over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 74.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 58.00 to a high of 90.00.

Lowest Target
58.00
-31.04%
Consensus Target
74.00
-12.02%
Highest Target
90.00
7.00%

The consensus 1-year price target stands at 74.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 58.00 to a high of 90.00.

Analyst Consensus Analysis

Upside Potential

-12.0%

Downside risk. Current price above analyst targets indicates potential overvaluation. Exercise caution and review catalysts.

Analyst Agreement

43.2% spread

Mixed analyst views. Wide target range suggests differing opinions on key value drivers, growth prospects, or risk factors.

Risk-Reward Profile

0.23x

Unfavorable risk-reward. Downside risk exceeds upside potential. Consider defensive positioning or alternative opportunities.

Analyst Conviction

Low

Bearish or uncertain outlook. Limited upside or poor consensus suggests challenges ahead or fundamental concerns.

Market Sentiment Insight

Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.

adm

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company Insider Positioning

ADM ยท NYSE

During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $487K and sold $10.11M worth of ADM shares, resulting in $9.63M of net selling activity.

3 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

119.1K

8.44M

Net Activity

-8.4M

-$8.44M

3-6 Months

Bought

7.5K

486.72K

Sold

25.0K

1.68M

Net Activity

-1.2M

-$1.19M

6-9 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+0

+$0

9-12 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+0

+$0

Top Buyers

1
MDRI

Mcatee David R Ii

Director

7.5K sharesโ€ข1 transactions

$487K

Top Sellers

1
MGA

Morris Gregory A

Officer: Senior Vice President

50.0K sharesโ€ข1 transactions

$3.42M

2
CCM

Cuddy Christopher M

Officer: Senior Vice President

35.0K sharesโ€ข1 transactions

$2.57M

3
PIR

Pinner Ian R

Officer: Senior Vice President

34.1K sharesโ€ข1 transactions

$2.44M

4
WJL

Weber Jennifer L

Officer: Senior Vice President

25.0K sharesโ€ข1 transactions

$1.68M

Insider Activity Analysis

Net Insider Sentiment

Bearish

Strong bearish signal with $9.63M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.

Buy/Sell Ratio

0.05:1

Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.

Recent Trend (3 Months)

$8.44M

Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchasesโ€”may warrant investigation into company developments.

Insider Participation

High Selling

4 insider sellers vs. 1 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.

Insider Activity Insight

Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.

0.72%
Dividend Yield
-18%
3Y+28.0%
5Y+11.0%
10Y+4.0%
ย 

adm Dividend History

ADM
10Y CAGR +6%
Latest $0.52
Annual $2.57
5 year growth trend
Last Period: +0%