Vital Farms, Inc.
$9.87
-2.0%Vital Farms, Inc., an ethical food company, provides pasture-raised products in the United States. It offers shell eggs, butter, hard-boiled eggs, ghee, liquid whole eggs, and egg bite products. Vital Farms, Inc. was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Austin, Texas.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E 6.6).
Valuation inputs: P/E 6.6, earnings yield +15.1%, momentum -2.0%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is strong (ROE +18.9%, ROIC +15.8%).
Profitability stack: net margin +8.7%, ROE +18.9%, ROIC +15.8%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +32.3%, momentum -2.0%, net margin +8.7%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Vital Farms, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
Performance Analysis
EPS Growth
Declining earnings warrant investigation into business challenges and competitive position.
Price-EPS Relationship
Both price and earnings are declining together, reflecting deteriorating business fundamentals.
Stock Price Change
Over the 1Y period, stock price has decreased by 68.1%.
P/E Ratio (TTM)
Relatively low P/E may indicate undervaluation or lower growth expectations.
Vital Farms, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Vital Farms, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Strong gross margins indicate healthy pricing and efficient production or service delivery.
Operating Margin
Acceptable margins but limited operational leverage. Operating expense control is important.
Net Profit Margin
Moderate profitability with room for improvement. Monitor interest expenses and tax efficiency.
Effective Tax Rate
Higher tax burden may reflect limited tax optimization or operations in high-tax jurisdictions.
Profitability Insight
Room for improvement: Moderate profitability with opportunities to enhance margins through better cost management or pricing strategy.
Vital Farms, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Negative free cash flow despite positive earnings raises concerns about cash generation ability or heavy capital requirements.
CapEx Intensity
Very high capital intensity consumes most operating cash flow. Limited flexibility for dividends or debt reduction.
FCF Growth Trend
Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.
Working Capital Impact
Significant working capital drain. Growth may be consuming cash through inventory buildup or receivables extension—monitor closely.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Cash flow concerns: Despite profitability, the company is burning cash. Review working capital management, CapEx levels, and sustainability of current operations.
Vital Farms, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Strong liquidity. The company has adequate resources to meet short-term liabilities.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Conservative capital structure. The company relies primarily on equity financing, indicating low financial risk.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Balanced asset mix between current and non-current assets, typical of many stable businesses.
Financial Health Insight
Strong financial foundation: Excellent liquidity combined with conservative leverage suggests the company is well-positioned to weather economic uncertainties and fund growth opportunities.
Vital Farms, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that VITL stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 21.33, with estimates ranging from a low of 10.00 to a high of 52.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 21.33, with estimates ranging from a low of 10.00 to a high of 52.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
High uncertainty. Very wide target spread indicates significant disagreement among analysts—major valuation uncertainty or transformation underway.
Analyst Conviction
High uncertainty: Wide dispersion indicates analysts struggle to agree on valuation—proceed with caution and independent analysis.
Market Sentiment Insight
High risk, high reward: Substantial upside potential exists, but wide analyst disagreement signals execution risk or unclear catalysts. Thorough due diligence essential before committing capital.
Vital Farms, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $613K and sold $3.74M worth of VITL shares, resulting in $3.13M of net selling activity.
3 Months
55.9K
514.24K
0
0.00
+514K
+$514K
3-6 Months
4.8K
98.33K
87.6K
2.37M
-2.3M
-$2.27M
6-9 Months
0
0.00
42.3K
1.37M
-1.4M
-$1.37M
9-12 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
Top Buyers
Cyr William B.
Director
$149K
Holland Joseph Michael
Officer: Chief Supply Chain Officer
$100K
Khoury Karl
Director
$92K
Flanagan Glenda J
Director
$51K
Ruiz Gisel
Director
$50K
Top Sellers
Ohayer Matthew
10 Percent Owner
$3.15M
Diez-Canseco Russell
Director, Officer: President And Ceo
$587K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $3.13M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Weak buy/sell ratio. Selling significantly exceeds buying—monitor for potential fundamental concerns.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Very strong recent buying momentum. Recent insider purchases significantly outpace sales, suggesting near-term optimism.
Insider Participation
5 insider buyers vs. 2 sellers. Broad-based buying across management team suggests widespread confidence.
No Dividend Yield Data
VITL has not reported any dividend yield values in the available annual periods.
vitl Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on VITL by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.