Frontier Group Holdings, Inc.
$5.77
-1.2%Frontier Group Holdings, Inc., a low-fare airline company, provides air transportation for passengers. The company operates an airline that serves approximately 120 airports throughout the United States and international destinations in the Americas. It offers its services through direct distribution channels, including its website, mobile app, and call center. As of December 31, 2021, the company had a fleet of 110 Airbus single-aisle aircraft comprising, 16 A320ceos, 73 A320neos, and 21 A321ceos. Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
Medium confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E -7.9).
Valuation inputs: P/E -7.9, earnings yield N/A, momentum -1.2%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE -27.9%, ROIC -2.4%).
Profitability stack: net margin -3.7%, ROE -27.9%, ROIC -2.4%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +93.2%, momentum -1.2%, net margin -3.7%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
Loading price and EPS data...
Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Strong gross margins indicate healthy pricing and efficient production or service delivery.
Operating Margin
Operating losses indicate the core business is unprofitable. Requires restructuring or revenue growth.
Net Profit Margin
Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.
Profitability Insight
Margin squeeze alert: Healthy gross margins but weak operating margins suggest excessive operating expenses. Cost optimization could unlock significant value.
Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.
Working Capital Impact
Moderate working capital outflow. Typical for growing businesses, but ensure it's supporting revenue growth, not inefficiency.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Working capital strain: Significant cash tied up in operations. Monitor receivables collection, inventory turns, and payment terms to optimize cash conversion cycle.
Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Warning: Liquidity concerns. Current assets may not be sufficient to cover short-term obligations.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets—potential liquidity stress.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Financial Health Insight
Financial stress indicators: Both liquidity and leverage metrics raise concerns. The company may face challenges meeting obligations and should focus on strengthening its balance sheet.
Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that ULCC stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 6.67, with estimates ranging from a low of 6.00 to a high of 8.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 6.67, with estimates ranging from a low of 6.00 to a high of 8.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Strong upside potential. Consensus indicates attractive return opportunity with favorable risk-reward profile.
Analyst Agreement
Good consensus alignment. Moderate target spread reflects general agreement on value drivers with some variance in assumptions.
Analyst Conviction
Strong buy conviction: High upside with tight consensus suggests compelling investment opportunity backed by analyst confidence.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $5.37M worth of ULCC shares, with no buying activity reported.
3 Months
0
0.00
96.6K
513.77K
-514K
-$514K
3-6 Months
0
0.00
210.0K
1.20M
-1.2M
-$1.20M
6-9 Months
0
0.00
103.8K
524.38K
-524K
-$524K
9-12 Months
0
0.00
557.1K
3.14M
-3.1M
-$3.14M
Top Buyers
No buying activity
Top Sellers
Biffle Barry
Director, Officer: Ceo
$4.03M
Diamond Howard
Officer: Evp, Legal & Corporate Affairs
$527K
Stedke Trevor J.
Officer: Sr. Vice President, Operations
$450K
Genise Robert J.
Director
$166K
Schuller Steve
Officer: Svp, Human Resources
$120K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $5.37M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
5 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
Insider Activity Insight
Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.
ulcc Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on ULCC by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.