United Fire Group, Inc.
$43.70
-1.2%United Fire Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides property and casualty insurance for individuals and businesses in the United States. The company offers commercial and personal lines of property and casualty insurance; and commercial multiple peril and inland marine insurance, as well as assumed reinsurance products. Its commercial policies include fire and allied lines, other liability, automobile, workers' compensation, and fidelity and surety coverage; and personal lines comprise automobile, and fire and allied lines coverage, including homeowners. The company sells its products through a network of independent agencies. United Fire Group, Inc. was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Cedar Rapids, Iowa.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E 8.1).
Valuation inputs: P/E 8.1, earnings yield +12.3%, momentum -1.2%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is acceptable (ROE +12.6%, ROIC +9.4%).
Profitability stack: net margin +8.5%, ROE +12.6%, ROIC +9.4%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +75.5%, momentum -1.2%, net margin +8.5%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
United Fire Group, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
Loading price and EPS data...
United Fire Group, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
United Fire Group, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Strong gross margins indicate healthy pricing and efficient production or service delivery.
Operating Margin
Acceptable margins but limited operational leverage. Operating expense control is important.
Net Profit Margin
Moderate profitability with room for improvement. Monitor interest expenses and tax efficiency.
Effective Tax Rate
Moderate tax rate typical for most corporations. Represents standard tax burden on profits.
Profitability Insight
Room for improvement: Moderate profitability with opportunities to enhance margins through better cost management or pricing strategy.
United Fire Group, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Asset-light with strong cash conversion: Low capital requirements combined with efficient cash generation creates significant shareholder value through dividends, buybacks, or strategic investments.
United Fire Group, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
United Fire Group, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that UFCS stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 57.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 57.00 to a high of 57.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 57.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 57.00 to a high of 57.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Analyst Conviction
Strong buy conviction: High upside with tight consensus suggests compelling investment opportunity backed by analyst confidence.
Market Sentiment Insight
Rare opportunity: Exceptional upside potential with strong analyst consensus creates a compelling setup. The combination of significant price target premium and tight agreement suggests high-conviction undervaluation that may attract institutional capital.
United Fire Group, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $692K worth of UFCS shares, with no buying activity reported.
3 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
3-6 Months
0
0.00
17.0K
654.97K
-655K
-$655K
6-9 Months
0
0.00
1.1K
37.09K
-37K
-$37K
9-12 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
Top Buyers
No buying activity
Top Sellers
Drahozal Christopher R
Director
$490K
Mcintyre Dee Ann
10 Percent Owner
$165K
Besong John Paul E
Director
$37K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $692K net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Insider Participation
3 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
ufcs Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on UFCS by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.