TTWO - NASDAQ

Greetings and welcome to the Take-Two Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2024 Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Nicole Shevins, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Communications. Thank you. You may begin.

Good afternoon. Thank you for joining our conference call to discuss our results for the Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2024 ended March 31, 2024. Today's call will be led by Strauss

Thanks, Nicole. Good afternoon and thank you for joining us today. I'm pleased to report that we concluded fiscal 2024 with strength, including net bookings of $1.35 billion, which exceeded the high end of our guidance range. Contributing to our positive results was the outperformance of NBA 2K24,

Thanks, Strauss. I’d like to thank our teams for their dedication and hard work as we continue to build the foundation for our future which we believe is more promising than ever. We are extremely excited about our upcoming pipeline which includes approximately 40 titles through Fiscal 2027. Our updated release schedule reflects the actions of our recent cost-reduction program, through which we cancelled several titles to focus our efforts and resources on the franchises we believe represent our best opportunities to achieve significant critical and commercial success. These titles did not include any of our core franchises and were not expected to materially affect our net bookings growth. Turning to Fiscal 2025, we have 16 titles in our pipeline, three of which have already been released. We have seven immersive core titles, including TopSpin, NBA and WWE 2K25, and the next iteration in one of 2K’s biggest and most beloved franchises, with the first details coming in just a few short weeks at Summer Games Fest Kickoff Live. Of these titles, TopSpin 2K25 was released by 2K and Hangar 13 on April 26. The revival of our popular tennis franchise has been well-received by critics and provides deep personalization, iconic venues, and industry-leading gameplay. With TopSpin 2K25, we continue to broaden our sports offerings, and 2K will support the title with season packs throughout the year. We have two independent titles from Private Division, the first of which is Moon Studio’s No Rest for the Wicked, which launched on April 18th into Early Access on PC. This new ARPG was well received for its visceral combat, distinct art style and rich narrative. Private Division, along with Wētā Workshop, also announced Tales of the Shire: A The Lord of the Rings Game, which is planned for release later this year. The teams recently revealed a new trailer for this cozy, hobbit life sim, which is set in the Middle-earth universe of J.R.R. Tolkien. We have five mobile titles, including NFL 2K Playmakers, Star Wars Hunters, and Game of Thrones Legends. NFL 2K Playmakers was released on April 23rd by 2K and Cat Daddy Games for iOS and Android devices. In this non-simulation tactical card battle players can collect NFL player cards to assemble an exciting roster, while also experiencing a variety of game modes and features. We’re proud to add NFL 2K Playmakers to our ever-growing mobile portfolio in partnership with the NFL and the NFL Player’s Association. Lastly, we have two new iterations of prior releases planned for the year. As always, our labels will continue to provide new content and experiences that drive engagement and recurrent consumer spending across many of our key offerings. Looking ahead, our pipeline for Fiscal 2026 and 2027 has 24 titles planned, including, l5 immersive core releases, six of which are sports simulation games, one independent title; five mobile games; and three new iterations of previously-released titles. In closing, we believe that the many opportunities ahead of us will deliver a period of meaningful long-term growth, margin expansion, and shareholder returns. I’ll now turn the call over to Lainie.

Thanks Karl and good afternoon everyone. We delivered a strong finish to Fiscal 2024 and are entering Fiscal 2025 with momentum, including healthy trends across our key franchises. Throughout the year, we released successful hit titles, engaged players with a steady cadence of in-game content, and continued to position our organization for the long-term. We also deepened our commitment to efficiency and made some decisions that, while difficult will align our resources with the initiatives for which we have the highest levels of conviction. We are confident that, over time these steps will drive our scale, enhance our margins, and deliver industry-leading returns for our shareholders. I’d like to thank our teams for their vision, passion, and dedication. Turning to our results, we delivered fourth quarter net bookings of $1.35 billion, which was above our guidance range of $1.27 billion to $1.32 billion. This reflected better-than-expected results from NBA 2K24;

Thanks, Lainie and Karl. On behalf of our entire management team, I'd like to thank our colleagues for their dedication to our business and for creating the highest quality, most engaging entertainment franchises to captivate our global audiences. And to our shareholders, I want to express our appreciation for your continued support. We'll now take your questions. Operator?

Thank you. We will now be conducting a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Eric Handler with Roth MKM. Please proceed with your question.

Good afternoon. Thanks for the question. Strauss, I wonder if you could talk a little bit about the Gearbox acquisition. In the past, you've expressed that you never really felt the need to own all of gearbox here you are about to own all of Gearbox. Can you talk about how you think about now owning all of Gearbox and some of the opportunities that you have with that?

Thanks, Eric. What I was referring to is when asked, when Gearbox was sold to Embracer whether that caused us to have any concern, my response was no because we have a long-term publishing agreement, and that's been mutually beneficial for our company and for Gearbox and as it was for Embracer. However, when the opportunity presented itself for us to acquire the company on terms that we felt were reasonable, we frankly jumped at the opportunity. We have all the respect in the world for Randy Pitchford and his team. He has the ability to bring AAA products to market, responsibly and on a very reliable and rather rapid cadence. And he is a hit maker. And it's very hard to make a new hit, and [Tiny Tino] (ph) was a new hit. And of course, Borderlands just goes from strength to strength. So we're thrilled to have Gearbox in the family.

Okay. And then, Lainie, with regards to the annual cost savings that you announced, how much of that should be seen in fiscal '25?

So we'll start to see it in fiscal '25, but we'll see a full annualization of it in fiscal year '26. So the majority of the plan was executed in Q4 and Q1, but pieces of it will come through this year.

And our next question comes from the line of Doug Creutz with TD Cowen. Please proceed with your question.

Hi, thank you. The ability of Rollic to launch top 100 grossing games is a really pleasant surprise. Just wondering if you could talk about how to think about the life cycle of those games. Typically, Rollic's games are sort of -- they're hot for a while and then they move on to something next, something else. Is this going to be the case for these monetizing games as well? Or is it a plan to have a longer life cycle. Thank you.

Undoubtedly, this so-called hybrid casual approach should lead to longer life cycles because the hypercasual approach really was put it out there, get a bunch of downloads offer a rather light experience, generate advertising revenue, have the users move on to the next. And that was great while it lasted, but long-term entertainment businesses are all driven by great content. And Rollic's proving that it has the ability with its partner studios to do just that and to deliver content that is durable and long lasting. It remains to be seen whether we can truly create forever franchises at Rollic. I believe we can. We haven't done so yet, but we are off to a really good start.

Thank you.

And our next question comes from the line of Colin Sebastian with Baird. Please proceed with your question.

Thanks, good afternoon. Maybe a couple for me. I guess, first off on the change to the guidance and the outlook. What is your level of confidence, Strauss, in the calendar '25 launch of GTA VI. And is there anything else more specific you can talk about that's behind that postponement. And then secondly, on the high single-digit mobile growth. I'm curious how much of that is related to any recovery you're seeing broadly in mobile gaming? Or is that more specific to the increase in marketing spend and these titles that are outperforming your expectations for this year? Thank you.

Thanks, Colin. We actually narrowed calendar 2025 to fall of 2025, and we feel really good about that release date. And obviously, we feel great about the title that is to come. And with regard to mobile, what we do at

All right. Thank you.

Our next question comes from the line of Matthew Cost with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.

Hi, everyone. Thanks for taking my question. I guess between the success you've had with Match Factory! and some new launch titles setting release date for Star Wars Hunters and then the incremental marketing behind mobile. It seems like there is definitely more momentum in that business, which is great to see. I guess when we think about your analytical framework for investing in the marketing behind mobile, what are you targeting from a margin or payback perspective? And when should we expect to see this investment turn into a profitable flow-through from the mobile side?

So I hope like everyone else, we look at the very same metrics, which is cost of acquisition, what kind of retention you expect which is to say what kind of churn you get. The spending that you have on average and therefore the lifetime value. And the longer payback period you're willing to accept, of course the more risk you take in those calculations because they're all based on extrapolating from current data and past data and they change at any given time. So I'm not prepared to share sort of our outside payback period. Suffice to say, though that we want to have a great deal of confidence that we're looking at a positive LTV.

Great. Thank you. And when would you expect to see mobile this investment that you’re making in mobile flip from a cost center due to driving incremental profit?

So of course, our mobile division is profitable. I understand what you're asking which is frankly, just another way of asking the same question you asked before, which I decline to answer. However, I do give you extra credit points for rephrasing it in a way that I might dive into it. However -- so we don't share our exact payback periods. We do however tailor our user acquisition spending so that we expect a meaningfully positive LTV in a period of time such that we have confidence that even if we're wrong, we're not so wrong that we're not making money. I hope that clarifies it a bit.

Okay, thank you.

Our next question comes from the line of Drew Crum with Stifel. Please proceed with your question.

Thanks. Hi guys, good afternoon. So could you address your forecast for NBA 2K RCS in fiscal '25 for a slight increase, is low single digits growth the new normal for this going forward? Or is there something unique in fiscal '25 that's influencing that view? Thanks.

So we absolutely expect growth in NBA. And that's not just on the RCS side but also on the full game sales side as well. This year is a little bit more challenging because we are still in the transition from Gen 8 to Gen 9. And Gen 9 is outperforming our expectations and doing fantastically well. I'd say we're a little bit more challenged on the Gen 8 side. As we continue to transition, I think we are going to see more tailwinds than headwinds in that regard. And when you look at the recurring consumer spending, specifically when you look at it specifically as it relates to Gen 9, it's off the chart. It is fantastic. So we’ve seen significant growth there. So again, I think we will have momentum just as we transition to Gen 9 and as people continue to engage more deeply in the game, we’re going to continue to see very strong RCS growth.

Our next question comes from the line of Benjamin Soff with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.

Hi guys. Thanks for the question. I was wondering if you guys could talk a little bit more about the change in bookings this year versus what you guys were talking about last quarter, how much comes from moving GTA versus any other shifts versus the restructuring? And then, yes, I guess I'll stop there. Thanks.

So for fiscal year '25, the outlook reflects a narrowing of Rockstar Games previously established window from the calendar 2025 to fall, as we mentioned, also some other movements within the release schedule and also with our cost-cutting plan that is also part of the overall results for that year.

Got it. And then a housekeeping question. Does your current outlook reflects the acquisition of Gearbox, or is that going to be updated next quarter after it's closed?

No, it is not included since the transaction hasn't closed yet. So we will expect to include it next quarter when we close, and we expect it to be slightly accretive to our management results.

Okay. That’s helpful, thanks guys.

The next question comes from the line of Martin Yang with Oppenheimer. Please proceed with your question.

Hi, thank you for taking my question. First question on statistics. With a narrow window of release, is there any associated changes to your plan regarding the live service portion of GTA 6.

So Rockstar hasn't given any details on what its expectations are for the release. It's been a wonderful trailer that they put out that broke the Internet, and more news will come from Rockstar in the fullness of time.

Thank you. I have a second question on NBA. How is NBA's transition challenges in between console generations compared to other annually releasing titles on the market, either from 2K or from other external competitors? And do you attribute the challenges to mostly to 2K or to market?

I'm sorry, was your question about the transition from console generation from the last transition to this transition?

Right.

Okay. So that's going back quite some time. And frankly, I don't have the exact figures in front of me. But generally speaking, I would say that the delta between the games in this year, the Gen 8 game is much broader. And I think that creates a more obvious difference between the two-- to do two games. And frankly, I can't remember if we had two completely separate games back then. But in any case, the Delta is quite significant this time around. So I would expect that the transition is more the effect of the transition is more pronounced in this console generation. And I forget your second question. Was there another one?

On this [indiscernible] how does it compare to other studios with annual recurring --.

Yes. We're not really commenting on our competitors. And most of our other studios, we don't have as much NBA comes out every year. So you're going to see that transition more rightly. We don't have the same effect in most of our other games. Occasionally, we would, but they wouldn't be comparable games to NBA anyway. And again, like I said we don't really comment about the -- our competitors and their experiences.

Got it. Thanks Karl.

Our next question comes from the line of Mike Hickey with Benchmark. Please proceed with your question.

Hi Strauss, Karl, Lainie and Nicole. Congrats on the quarter. Strauss, in your prepared comments, you mentioned that your expectations for the commercial impact from GTA 6 and increased. I'm just curious if you could explain what's driving that up to enthusiasm for the game. And then the second question on your guidance, curious why you're not providing medium-term. You've done that before, and it feels like here you have at least better visibility on the primary catalysts driving that growth. And then on [2027] (ph) tying into that question, I'm wondering where your confidence is that you can grow sequentially [2026] (ph). Is that sort of primarily the GTA ecosystem driving that growth in '27, or is it a combination of that and other AAA games that you plan to release. Thanks guys.

Thanks, Mike, for those questions. I think our confidence continues to increase just because Grand Theft Auto V continues to perform so well. We've now sold in over 200 million units. And every quarter, we continue to be pleased by the ongoing sales of the full game and engagement in the past fiscal year with Grand Theft Auto V was up about 35% with Grand Theft Auto Online was up about 23%, I believe. That's extraordinary growth at this stage again more than 10 years after the initial release. So I think we feel as though the market's anticipation is at a fever pitch. And of course expectations are very high everywhere in this boardroom and all around the world for the perfection of what Rockstar typically delivers. In terms of your question, I think you were asking your second question, why didn't we provide very specific guidance for a top-line number going forward? And the answer is, generally speaking, we have not done that except when it was necessary to clarify where we felt the company was going. We think now we are being very specific about this fiscal year and about the next couple of fiscal years by saying we expect relating to your third question, sequential growth on top-line. And we think that pretty much answers the question. Finally, the second part of your third question is that driven by the GTA ecosystem. The answer is certainly, we have expectations for that ecosystem. And again, given that full game sales continue to be strong for GTA V this many years later. At the same time, we also have a number of other powerful releases coming about which we're highly optimistic. And of course we have [car hits] (ph) in the marketplace. Match Factory is a huge hit and only accelerating.

Thanks, Strauss. Good luck guys.

Our next question comes from the line of Eric Sheridan with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.

Thanks so much for taking the question. Maybe I can just ask a big picture one that's two parts. When you come out of the activity you just went through in terms of reevaluating your pipeline and looking at resource allocation across the organization what were some of the key learnings on right, the right mix of content is for you guys to meet your hurdle rate going forward? And what were some of the key learnings of how much of the resource allocation decisions are now setting the company up on a multiyear view? Or do you think there are going to be a continued refinement as you look to marry resources and the IP pipeline in the years ahead? Thanks so much.

So in terms of looking at our pipeline, I mean this is not really new to us. This is a process that we go through that we've been going through for at least the last 17 years as I've been here. And -- but what we're looking for specifically around this -- the look that we just took is that we're looking look -- we understand in the industry right now that the biggest games are winning, and they're taking more share. And that's obviously a fact that we noticed and take us very seriously. We're simply looking for the projects that we think have the highest chance for commercial success and for critical success. And going through and coming through those and going through and then making the tough choices. It's always difficult to cancel any projects. But in this context, it was something that was necessary and really part of our normalized process. So we absolutely expect that, that will continue in the future. This was a pretty tough look and a pretty big look. So I think most of that is behind us. But we will be adding, and we will be subtracting over the next few years, and that's part of what we do. And it will be both with will continue to invest in new IP as well. That is not off the table for us. That's very important. That's the life level blood of the industry. And if you're not investing in new IP, we think it's a biggest [stack] (ph).

The next question comes from the line of Jason Basmo with Citi. Please proceed with question.

I just had one question on GTA VI. This narrowing from calendar '25 to the fall of 25%. Do you think there's an ancillary benefit of that of sort of syncing up with the holiday season? Or do you feel like GTA is such a powerful franchise that it really doesn't confer any sort of incremental benefit .

While it probably doesn't matter, I think we'd all rather be in the release window that we're looking at now.

Okay, thank you.

Our next question comes from the line of James Heaney with Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.

Yeah, thank you for taking the question. What have been some of the unlocks on the mobile side of the business. You did call out the better-than-expected results in

Look, we have two important businesses within mobile in-app purchases and advertising and they're both relevant. We hit on advertising as we rethought our hyper-casual business and turned it into a blended hybrid casual business where they are in-app purchases as well. At the same time, we built up advertising inside Mobile by putting advertising units in games that previously did not have them. In any case, advertising should be a meaningful growth area for us in the mobile business. With regards to app purchases, we have the same opportunities and limitations that any other mobile company has and our ability to grow in our purchases is driven by our ability to have people download and play hip titles. That's what we're focused on.

Thank you.

Our next question comes from the line of Clay Griffin with Moffett Nathanson. Please proceed with your question.

Yes, good afternoon. Thank you. I'm curious if you guys would talk about the broader PC strategy. I know that there's just tons and tons of engagement, particularly for GTA on PC, not all of that gets monetized. I think in the past, you've describe that as maybe it's a good thing to have that there. You don't necessarily need to monetize all of it. But there are some interesting products out there over Wolf and the like. And so maybe I'm just curious what you guys are seeing or thinking about your opportunity to unlock monetization on PC. Thanks.

So we look at the PC platform as we do any platform, and it all starts with content, first and foremost. And we agree, it's a very powerful platform, and we've got some very strong third-party partners. Also the ability for us to sell directly to the consumer. So these are all compelling things for us, and we'll continue to develop and support the PC platform as long as the gamer is there. Wherever the gamer is, that's where we're going to be. And again, I don't really see us looking at the PC monetization any differently than we would on any other platform. It really is more about game to game. What works for certain games, what doesn't work for certain games. And the overarching edict that we live by is overdeliver on content and the monetization will follow.

Great, thanks Karl.

And our next question comes from the line of Chris Schoell with UBS. Please proceed with your question.

Hi, great. Thank you for taking the question. We saw Rockstar announce a price increase for GTA. I recognize it's been 7 years, but can you help us think through the rationale? And as you look at GTA VI, so what are your latest thoughts around the pricing dynamics for the franchise or your portfolio in general as these games continue to get larger with more robust experiences? Thank you.

Look, there's more content constantly being made available, and we really aim to deliver great value at any given time. We're so focused on delivering more value than what we charge. And that's sort of the rubric. And any time we establish our prices, we want to make sure that it's good news for the consumer that the experience vastly over delivers in the context of the cost. That's the goal.

Great. Thank you.

And our next question comes from the line of Omar Dessouky with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.

Sure, I have two questions, one on mobile and then just one again on the sequential growth. So is there any more color at all you can give us on how you're going to grow sequentially in fiscal '27 after lapping just such a tough comp in fiscal '26 when GTA VI is going to launch. It just seems counterintuitive. When I look back at the last 2 times, Rockstar released a mega title, Red Dead Redemption in fiscal '19, fiscal '20 did not grow. And Grand Theft Auto V in fiscal '14, fiscal '15 was down 30% I'm just kind of trying to square those couple of things there. Will it be Rockstar that continues to drive that sequential growth in fiscal '27? Any more color there would be really great.

Yes, it's a fair question. Look, the business has really changed and certainly since 2019 and absolutely since 2015 and in ways that are obvious now and in ways that we project in the future. The sequential growth is driven by our overall pipeline, and we're now a large and diversified company. And we do have GTA VI coming. We have great aspirations for GTA VI. And as I said earlier, we've been selling full game, GTA V for over 10 years. And we continue to sell more in a given year than most other standalone releases selling their first year, even at our big competitors company. So we actually think there is a compelling case that the full game sales will continue to be robust for years to come. Equally, we have a pipeline both announced and unannounced, that's very exciting. We have an annualized pipeline that will, of course, continue to come that's quite significant. And we have a mobile business that we frankly feel has been rightsized, well-structured and is now back in growth mode. And there's evidence of that. The performance of Match Factory!, the performance of Toon Blast and the stable performance of many other big titles. There are also geographical growth opportunities that we're very focused on. We don't spend a lot of time talking about it, but it's a huge part of our strategy. Our business and our competitors' businesses remain largely US and Western Europe focused. And we think there are enormous opportunities for growth in Asia, India and Africa, where we and everyone else who isn't located in those geographies are deeply underpenetrated. So there are numerous opportunities for growth, but to put reminded ease, this isn't stick finger in your mouth and hold it in the air and hope for the best kind of number. This is driven by our release schedule and our pipeline.

Okay. And along kind of the same lines, I think a lot of people are going to be super excited about GTA VI coming out. Do you make any assumptions about the perhaps a reacceleration of growth in the console installed base or console sales, because your title may bring a lot of lapsed gamers back into the ecosystem in your forecasts.

We are using IDG's projections, which are pretty substantial. So for Gen 9 alone, their view is that they're about 81 million consoles worldwide currently that was at the end of the last year, they project that will rise to 111 million by the end of this year and [175 million] (ph) by the end of 2027. Now we don't necessarily subscribe or not subscribe to those views, but that shows an awful lot of growth. And we do expect a very significant attach rate.

Thanks a lot. Appreciate it.

Thank you. We have reached the end of our question-and-answer session. And with that, I would like to turn the floor back over to CEO, Strauss

Before we sign off, I just want to thank everyone who works at Take-Two in all of our affiliates. These have been challenging times. And in addition to delivering hits, we've asked everyone to dig deep and make sure the business is highly efficient, rightsized. And that's challenging. And one of the most extraordinary things about our organization is the amazing morale and focus on the common good. We are here for our customers for our first and foremost for our colleagues who deliver to our customers every day and for our shareholders. And we're extraordinarily excited both about the position we're in, about the fiscal year in which we're currently operating and about our amazing pipeline in the years ahead. Thank you for joining us today.