TFS Financial Corporation
$15.86
-0.84%TFS Financial Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides retail consumer banking services in the United States. Its deposit products include savings, money market, checking, individual retirement, and other qualified plan accounts, as well as certificates of deposit. The company also provides residential real estate mortgage loans, residential construction loans, and home equity loans and lines of credit, as well as purchase mortgages and first mortgage refinance loans. In addition, it offers escrow and settlement services. The company provides its products and services through its main office in Cleveland, Ohio; and 37 full-service branches and 7 loan production offices located throughout the states of Ohio and Florida. The company was founded in 1938 and is headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio. TFS Financial Corporation operates as a subsidiary of Third Federal Savings and Loan Association of Cleveland, MHC.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is elevated (P/E 49.6).
Valuation inputs: P/E 49.6, earnings yield +2.0%, momentum -0.8%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE +4.8%, ROIC +1.3%).
Profitability stack: net margin +11.5%, ROE +4.8%, ROIC +1.3%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +89.2%, momentum -0.8%, net margin +11.5%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
TFS Financial Corporation Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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TFS Financial Corporation Fair Value Envelope
TFS Financial Corporation Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Strong gross margins indicate healthy pricing and efficient production or service delivery.
Operating Margin
Acceptable margins but limited operational leverage. Operating expense control is important.
Net Profit Margin
Strong net margins indicate efficient operations and favorable tax/interest management.
Effective Tax Rate
Moderate tax rate typical for most corporations. Represents standard tax burden on profits.
Profitability Insight
Room for improvement: Moderate profitability with opportunities to enhance margins through better cost management or pricing strategy.
TFS Financial Corporation Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Moderate conversion rate. Some gap between earnings and cash flow may warrant investigation into working capital or non-cash items.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.
Working Capital Impact
Minimal working capital impact on FCF. Changes in operating assets and liabilities well-managed.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Solid cash generation: Positive free cash flow with reasonable earnings quality provides financial flexibility for growth investments, debt reduction, or shareholder returns.
TFS Financial Corporation Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
TFS Financial Corporation Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that TFSL stock may see slight declines over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 15.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 15.00 to a high of 15.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 15.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 15.00 to a high of 15.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Downside risk. Current price above analyst targets indicates potential overvaluation. Exercise caution and review catalysts.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Risk-Reward Profile
Balanced risk-reward. Upside and downside potential relatively symmetric. Suitable for moderate risk tolerance with conviction in thesis.
Analyst Conviction
Bearish or uncertain outlook. Limited upside or poor consensus suggests challenges ahead or fundamental concerns.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
TFS Financial Corporation Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $1.12M and sold $2.78M worth of TFSL shares, resulting in $1.67M of net selling activity.
3 Months
40.0K
596.05K
30.9K
467.45K
+129K
+$129K
3-6 Months
1.4K
19.99K
83.5K
1.24M
-1.2M
-$1.22M
6-9 Months
0
0.00
43.9K
613.64K
-614K
-$614K
9-12 Months
37.7K
499.57K
34.2K
464.12K
+35K
+$35K
Top Buyers
Asher Anthony J
Director
$586K
Weir Daniel F
Director
$529K
Top Sellers
Weil Meredith S
Director, Officer: Chief Financial Officer
$811K
Stefanski Marc A
Director, Officer: Chairman, President And Ceo
$782K
Zbanek Cathy W
Officer: Chief Synergy Officer
$435K
Anderson Barbara J.
Director
$313K
Rubino Andrew J
Officer: Chief Operating Officer
$181K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Negative insider sentiment with $1.67M net selling. Selling notably exceeds buying, warranting closer scrutiny of company fundamentals.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Weak buy/sell ratio. Selling significantly exceeds buying—monitor for potential fundamental concerns.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Positive recent trend with net buying activity. Insiders have been accumulating shares in recent months.
Insider Participation
5 insider sellers vs. 2 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
tfsl Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on TFSL by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.