The Simply Good Foods Company
$11.41
-3.4%The Simply Good Foods Company operates as a consumer packaged food and beverage company in North America and internationally. The company develops, markets, and sells snacks and meal replacements. It offers protein bars, ready-to-drink shakes, sweet and salty snacks, cookies, pizza, protein chips, recipes, and confectionery products, as well as licensed frozen meals under the Atkins, Atkins Endulge, and Quest brand names. The company distributes its products to various retail channels, such as mass merchandise, grocery and drug channels, club stores, convenience stores, gas stations, and other channels. It also sells its products through e-commerce channels, including atkins.com, questnutrition.com, and amazon.com. The Simply Good Foods Company is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E 11.1).
Valuation inputs: P/E 11.1, earnings yield +9.0%, momentum -3.4%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE +5.7%, ROIC +7.3%).
Profitability stack: net margin +7.1%, ROE +5.7%, ROIC +7.3%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +24.6%, momentum -3.4%, net margin +7.1%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
The Simply Good Foods Company Market vs Earnings Trajectory
Performance Analysis
EPS Growth
Declining earnings warrant investigation into business challenges and competitive position.
Price-EPS Relationship
Both price and earnings are declining together, reflecting deteriorating business fundamentals.
Stock Price Change
Over the 1Y period, stock price has decreased by 66.3%.
P/E Ratio (TTM)
Relatively low P/E may indicate undervaluation or lower growth expectations.
The Simply Good Foods Company Fair Value Envelope
The Simply Good Foods Company Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Strong gross margins indicate healthy pricing and efficient production or service delivery.
Operating Margin
Healthy operating margins demonstrate effective cost control and strong business fundamentals.
Net Profit Margin
Moderate profitability with room for improvement. Monitor interest expenses and tax efficiency.
Effective Tax Rate
Moderate tax rate typical for most corporations. Represents standard tax burden on profits.
Profitability Insight
Room for improvement: Moderate profitability with opportunities to enhance margins through better cost management or pricing strategy.
The Simply Good Foods Company Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.
Working Capital Impact
Moderate working capital outflow. Typical for growing businesses, but ensure it's supporting revenue growth, not inefficiency.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Asset-light with strong cash conversion: Low capital requirements combined with efficient cash generation creates significant shareholder value through dividends, buybacks, or strategic investments.
The Simply Good Foods Company Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Excellent liquidity position. The company can easily cover its short-term obligations with substantial cushion.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Conservative capital structure. The company relies primarily on equity financing, indicating low financial risk.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Financial Health Insight
Strong financial foundation: Excellent liquidity combined with conservative leverage suggests the company is well-positioned to weather economic uncertainties and fund growth opportunities.
The Simply Good Foods Company Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that SMPL stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 18.17, with estimates ranging from a low of 12.00 to a high of 31.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 18.17, with estimates ranging from a low of 12.00 to a high of 31.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
High uncertainty. Very wide target spread indicates significant disagreement among analysts—major valuation uncertainty or transformation underway.
Analyst Conviction
High uncertainty: Wide dispersion indicates analysts struggle to agree on valuation—proceed with caution and independent analysis.
Market Sentiment Insight
High risk, high reward: Substantial upside potential exists, but wide analyst disagreement signals execution risk or unclear catalysts. Thorough due diligence essential before committing capital.
The Simply Good Foods Company Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $1.61M and sold $1.44M worth of SMPL shares, resulting in $171K of net buying activity.
3 Months
90.0K
1.11M
34.0K
1.24M
-133K
-$133K
3-6 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
6-9 Months
14.9K
299.02K
5.9K
114.05K
+185K
+$185K
9-12 Months
6.0K
200.30K
2.5K
81.69K
+119K
+$119K
Top Buyers
Kilts James M
Director
$991K
Tanner Geoff E
Director, Officer: President And Ceo
$200K
Bealer Christopher J
Officer: Chief Financial Officer
$199K
Daley Clayton C Jr
Director
$118K
Clawson Michael L
Officer: Chief Commercial Officer
$100K
Top Sellers
Bealer Christopher J
Officer: Chief Financial Officer
$1.24M
Matthews Timothy Allen
Officer: Vp, Controller And Cao
$114K
Olivieri Mark A. Jr.
Officer: Svp And Gm Owyn
$82K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Moderately bullish with $171K net buying. Insiders show cautious optimism through measured share purchases.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Positive buy/sell ratio. Buying exceeds or matches selling, indicating net positive insider sentiment.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Negative recent trend with net selling. Insiders have reduced positions in recent months, which could signal caution.
Insider Participation
5 insider buyers vs. 3 sellers. More insiders buying than selling indicates positive sentiment.
Insider Activity Insight
Broad-based insider buying: When multiple insiders independently decide to purchase shares, it often reflects genuine confidence rather than coordinated optics. This pattern deserves attention, especially if buying followed a price decline.
No Dividend Yield Data
SMPL has not reported any dividend yield values in the available annual periods.
smpl Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on SMPL by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.