Sera Prognostics, Inc.
$2.22
+8.3%Sera Prognostics, Inc., a women's health diagnostic company, discovers, develops, and commercializes biomarker tests for improving pregnancy outcomes. The company develops PreTRM test, a blood-based biomarker test to predict the risk of spontaneous preterm birth in asymptomatic singleton pregnancies. It is also developing a portfolio of product candidates for various pregnancy-related conditions, including preeclampsia, molecular time-to-birth, gestational diabetes mellitus, fetal growth restriction, stillbirth, and postpartum depression. The company was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Salt Lake City, Utah.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
Medium confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E -3.3).
Valuation inputs: P/E -3.3, earnings yield N/A, momentum +8.3%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE -42.3%, ROIC -46.9%).
Profitability stack: net margin -394.2%, ROE -42.3%, ROIC -46.9%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +26.0%, momentum +8.3%, net margin -394.2%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Sera Prognostics, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Sera Prognostics, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Sera Prognostics, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Negative gross margin indicates the company is losing money on each sale—unsustainable long-term.
Operating Margin
Operating losses indicate the core business is unprofitable. Requires restructuring or revenue growth.
Net Profit Margin
Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.
Profitability Insight
High margin compression: Large gap between gross and net margins suggests operational inefficiencies or heavy debt burden. Focus on expense management and deleveraging.
Sera Prognostics, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Strong cash conversion. Most reported earnings translate into actual cash flow, suggesting solid fundamentals.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.
Working Capital Impact
Minimal working capital impact on FCF. Changes in operating assets and liabilities well-managed.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Working capital strain: Significant cash tied up in operations. Monitor receivables collection, inventory turns, and payment terms to optimize cash conversion cycle.
Sera Prognostics, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Excellent liquidity position. The company can easily cover its short-term obligations with substantial cushion.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Conservative capital structure. The company relies primarily on equity financing, indicating low financial risk.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Balanced asset mix between current and non-current assets, typical of many stable businesses.
Financial Health Insight
Strong financial foundation: Excellent liquidity combined with conservative leverage suggests the company is well-positioned to weather economic uncertainties and fund growth opportunities.
Sera Prognostics, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that SERA stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 5.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 5.00 to a high of 5.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 5.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 5.00 to a high of 5.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Analyst Conviction
Strong buy conviction: High upside with tight consensus suggests compelling investment opportunity backed by analyst confidence.
Market Sentiment Insight
Rare opportunity: Exceptional upside potential with strong analyst consensus creates a compelling setup. The combination of significant price target premium and tight agreement suggests high-conviction undervaluation that may attract institutional capital.
Sera Prognostics, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $160K and sold $842K worth of SERA shares, resulting in $682K of net selling activity.
3 Months
0
0.00
51.1K
99.17K
-99K
-$99K
3-6 Months
0
0.00
50.1K
153.11K
-153K
-$153K
6-9 Months
0
0.00
129.6K
376.06K
-376K
-$376K
9-12 Months
100.0K
160.00K
96.6K
213.65K
-54K
-$54K
Top Buyers
Kamdar Kim P.
Director
$40K
Critchfield Gregory C
Director
$40K
Phillips Joshua
Director
$40K
Mirza Mansoor Raza
Director
$40K
Top Sellers
Lindgardt Zhenya
Director, Officer: Chief Executive Officer
$315K
Kearney Paul
Officer: Chief Data Officer
$195K
Harrison Robert Gardner
Officer: Chief Information Officer
$100K
Aerts Austin
Officer: Chief Financial Officer
$94K
Boniface John J.
Officer: Chief Scientific Officer
$58K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $682K net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Weak buy/sell ratio. Selling significantly exceeds buying—monitor for potential fundamental concerns.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
5 insider sellers vs. 4 buyers. More insiders selling than buying suggests cautious or negative sentiment.
Insider Activity Insight
Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.
No Dividend Yield Data
SERA has not reported any dividend yield values in the available annual periods.
sera Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on SERA by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.