Sunrun Inc.
$14.85
-4.7%Sunrun Inc. engages in the design, development, installation, sale, ownership, and maintenance of residential solar energy systems in the United States. It also sells solar energy systems and products, such as panels and racking; and solar leads generated to customers. In addition, the company offers battery storage along with solar energy systems. Its primary customers are residential homeowners. The company markets and sells its products through direct-to-consumer approach across online, retail, mass media, digital media, canvassing, field marketing, and referral channels, as well as its partner network. Sunrun Inc. was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E 7.6).
Valuation inputs: P/E 7.6, earnings yield +13.2%, momentum -4.7%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE +14.4%, ROIC -0.5%).
Profitability stack: net margin +15.2%, ROE +14.4%, ROIC -0.5%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +79.4%, momentum -4.7%, net margin +15.2%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Sunrun Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
Loading price and EPS data...
Sunrun Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Sunrun Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Moderate margins typical of competitive industries. Monitor for pricing pressure or rising costs.
Operating Margin
Operating losses indicate the core business is unprofitable. Requires restructuring or revenue growth.
Net Profit Margin
Strong net margins indicate efficient operations and favorable tax/interest management.
Sunrun Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Weak cash conversion. Significant portion of earnings not converting to cash—review working capital trends and capital intensity.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Significant working capital drain. Growth may be consuming cash through inventory buildup or receivables extension—monitor closely.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Working capital strain: Significant cash tied up in operations. Monitor receivables collection, inventory turns, and payment terms to optimize cash conversion cycle.
Sunrun Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Acceptable liquidity, but monitor closely. Current assets just barely cover current liabilities.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Sunrun Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that RUN stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 17.86, with estimates ranging from a low of 12.00 to a high of 23.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 17.86, with estimates ranging from a low of 12.00 to a high of 23.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Strong upside potential. Consensus indicates attractive return opportunity with favorable risk-reward profile.
Analyst Agreement
High uncertainty. Very wide target spread indicates significant disagreement among analysts—major valuation uncertainty or transformation underway.
Risk-Reward Profile
Favorable risk-reward. Potential upside significantly exceeds downside risk, offering asymmetric return profile attractive for risk-tolerant investors.
Analyst Conviction
High uncertainty: Wide dispersion indicates analysts struggle to agree on valuation—proceed with caution and independent analysis.
Market Sentiment Insight
High risk, high reward: Substantial upside potential exists, but wide analyst disagreement signals execution risk or unclear catalysts. Thorough due diligence essential before committing capital.
Sunrun Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $149K and sold $24.78M worth of RUN shares, resulting in $24.63M of net selling activity.
3 Months
0
0.00
698.9K
9.41M
-9.4M
-$9.41M
3-6 Months
12.5K
149.03K
310.9K
5.96M
-5.8M
-$5.81M
6-9 Months
0
0.00
443.6K
8.43M
-8.4M
-$8.43M
9-12 Months
0
0.00
79.2K
983.18K
-983K
-$983K
Top Buyers
Ferber Alan
Director
$149K
Top Sellers
Jurich Lynn Michelle
Director
$7.46M
Fenster Edward Harris
Director
$5.74M
Powell Mary
Director, Officer: Chief Executive Officer
$3.25M
Dickson Paul S.
Officer: Pres. & Chief Revenue Officer
$2.93M
Steele Jeanna
Officer: Chief Legal & People Officer
$2.65M
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $24.63M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
5 insider sellers vs. 1 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
Insider Activity Insight
Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.
No Dividend Yield Data
RUN has not reported any dividend yield values in the available annual periods.
run Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on RUN by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.