Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.
$11.06
-2.0%Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. operates as a commercial real estate finance company in the United States. It originates, structures, and invests in first mortgage loans and alternative structured financings secured by commercial real estate properties. The company offers senior loans to state-licensed operators and property owners in the cannabis industry. It has elected to be taxed as a real estate investment trust (REIT) and would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. The company was incorporated in 2021 and is based in Chicago, Illinois.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E 6.5).
Valuation inputs: P/E 6.5, earnings yield +15.5%, momentum -2.0%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is acceptable (ROE +11.7%, ROIC +8.8%).
Profitability stack: net margin +57.1%, ROE +11.7%, ROIC +8.8%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile looks controlled across current risk inputs.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +27.6%, momentum -2.0%, net margin +57.1%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.
Operating Margin
Outstanding operational efficiency. The company generates substantial profit from core operations.
Net Profit Margin
Exceptional profitability. The company converts a significant portion of revenue to bottom-line earnings.
Effective Tax Rate
Below-average tax rate suggests effective tax planning, favorable jurisdictions, or tax credits.
Profitability Insight
Exceptional profitability across all levels: Strong pricing power, efficient operations, and healthy bottom line indicate a high-quality business with sustainable competitive advantages.
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Moderate conversion rate. Some gap between earnings and cash flow may warrant investigation into working capital or non-cash items.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Minimal working capital impact on FCF. Changes in operating assets and liabilities well-managed.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Solid cash generation: Positive free cash flow with reasonable earnings quality provides financial flexibility for growth investments, debt reduction, or shareholder returns.
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Warning: Liquidity concerns. Current assets may not be sufficient to cover short-term obligations.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Conservative capital structure. The company relies primarily on equity financing, indicating low financial risk.
Working Capital
Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets—potential liquidity stress.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Financial Health Insight
Conservative with tight liquidity: Low debt is positive, but current ratio warrants attention. Consider whether the company is efficiently deploying its equity capital.
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that REFI stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 17.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 14.00 to a high of 20.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 17.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 14.00 to a high of 20.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
Good consensus alignment. Moderate target spread reflects general agreement on value drivers with some variance in assumptions.
Analyst Conviction
Positive outlook with reasonable agreement. Analysts generally optimistic about prospects with manageable uncertainty.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $483K worth of REFI shares, with no selling activity reported.
3 Months
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3-6 Months
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6-9 Months
38.6K
483.39K
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+483K
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9-12 Months
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Top Buyers
Mazarakis John
Director, Officer: Executive Chairman
$195K
Sack Peter
Director, Officer: Co-Chief Executive Officer
$101K
Konigsberg Brandon
Director
$86K
Kite David
Officer: Chief Operating Officer
$63K
Papastavrou Jason D
Director
$38K
Top Sellers
No selling activity
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bullish signal with $483K net buying. Insiders are aggressively accumulating shares, suggesting significant confidence in future prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Perfect buy/sell ratio. Only buying activity with zero selling—the most bullish possible insider signal.
Insider Participation
5 insider buyers vs. 0 sellers. Broad-based buying across management team suggests widespread confidence.
Insider Activity Insight
Compelling insider conviction: The combination of strong buy/sell ratio and multiple buyers suggests insiders see attractive risk/reward. Consider this alongside fundamental analysis for confirmation.
refi Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on REFI by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.