Old Second Bancorp, Inc.
$20.70
-3.1%Old Second Bancorp, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Old Second National Bank that provides community banking services. It provides demand, NOW, money market, savings, time deposit, individual retirement, and checking accounts, as well as certificate of deposit accounts. The company also offers commercial loans; lease financing receivables; commercial real estate loans; construction loans; residential real estate loans, such as residential first mortgage and second mortgage loans; home equity line of credit; consumer loans, including motor vehicle, home improvement, and signature loans; installment and agricultural loans; residential mortgages; and overdraft checking. Further, it provides safe deposit services; trust and wealth management services; and money orders, cashier's checks, foreign currency, direct deposits, discount brokerage, debit and credit cards, and other services, as well as acquires the U.S. treasury notes and bonds. In addition, the company offers online and mobile banking; corporate cash management products, including remote and mobile deposits capture, investment sweep accounts, zero balance accounts, automated tax payments, automatic teller machines access, telephone banking, lockbox accounts, automated clearing house transactions, account reconciliation, controlled disbursement, detail and general information reporting, foreign and domestic wire transfers, and vault services for currency and coin; and investment, agency, and custodial services for individual, corporate, and not-for-profit clients. It operates through 63 banking centers in Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Kane, Kendall, LaSalle, and Will counties in Illinois. Old Second Bancorp, Inc. was incorporated in 1981 and is headquartered in Aurora, Illinois.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E 12.6).
Valuation inputs: P/E 12.6, earnings yield +7.9%, momentum -3.1%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE +9.0%, ROIC -45.5%).
Profitability stack: net margin +20.2%, ROE +9.0%, ROIC -45.5%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +87.0%, momentum -3.1%, net margin +20.2%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Old Second Bancorp, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
Performance Analysis
EPS Growth
Slight earnings decline may be temporary. Monitor future quarters for trend reversal.
Price-EPS Relationship
Price is rising despite declining earnings—caution advised as valuation may be stretched.
Stock Price Change
Over the 1Y period, stock price has increased by 26.5%.
P/E Ratio (TTM)
Relatively low P/E may indicate undervaluation or lower growth expectations.
Key Insight
Despite declining earnings (-8.1%), the stock price has risen (+26.5%). This disconnect suggests investors may be optimistic about future turnaround, but earnings recovery is critical to sustain the valuation.
Old Second Bancorp, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Old Second Bancorp, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.
Operating Margin
Outstanding operational efficiency. The company generates substantial profit from core operations.
Net Profit Margin
Exceptional profitability. The company converts a significant portion of revenue to bottom-line earnings.
Effective Tax Rate
Higher tax burden may reflect limited tax optimization or operations in high-tax jurisdictions.
Profitability Insight
Exceptional profitability across all levels: Strong pricing power, efficient operations, and healthy bottom line indicate a high-quality business with sustainable competitive advantages.
Old Second Bancorp, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Flat FCF growth. Stable but not expanding—monitor for signs of business maturity or temporary headwinds.
Working Capital Impact
Minimal working capital impact on FCF. Changes in operating assets and liabilities well-managed.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Asset-light with strong cash conversion: Low capital requirements combined with efficient cash generation creates significant shareholder value through dividends, buybacks, or strategic investments.
Old Second Bancorp, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Excellent liquidity position. The company can easily cover its short-term obligations with substantial cushion.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Financial Health Insight
Mixed signals: Strong short-term liquidity provides comfort, but high overall leverage requires careful monitoring of debt servicing capabilities and refinancing risk.
Old Second Bancorp, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that OSBC stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 23.67, with estimates ranging from a low of 23.00 to a high of 25.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 23.67, with estimates ranging from a low of 23.00 to a high of 25.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Moderate upside. Analysts expect positive returns but with limited margin of safety. Consider entry timing.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Analyst Conviction
Positive outlook with reasonable agreement. Analysts generally optimistic about prospects with manageable uncertainty.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
Old Second Bancorp, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $501 and sold $3.75M worth of OSBC shares, resulting in $3.75M of net selling activity.
3 Months
24
501.00
67.3K
1.37M
-1.4M
-$1.37M
3-6 Months
0
0.00
52.5K
1.09M
-1.1M
-$1.09M
6-9 Months
0
0.00
70.7K
1.29M
-1.3M
-$1.29M
9-12 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
Top Buyers
Lyons Billy J Jr.
Director
$501
Top Sellers
Campbell Darin Patrick
Director, Officer: President, Powersports Lending
$1.77M
Collins Gary S
Director, Officer: Vice Chairman
$855K
Ladowicz John
Director
$561K
Pilmer Donald
Officer: Evp
$519K
Gartelmann Richard A Jr
Officer: Evp
$42K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $3.75M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
5 insider sellers vs. 1 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
Insider Activity Insight
Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.
osbc Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on OSBC by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.