Origin Materials, Inc.
$0.34
+1.7%Micromidas, Inc., doing business as Origin Materials, produces and commercializes plant-based PET plastic. It develops a platform for turning the carbon found in biomass into useful materials, while capturing carbon in the process. The company serves tire filler, carbon black, agriculture, and activated carbon markets. Micromidas, Inc. has a strategic alliance with Palantir Technologies Inc. The company was incorporated in 2008 and is based in West Sacramento, California with a facility in Sarnia, Canada.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
Medium confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E -0.6).
Valuation inputs: P/E -0.6, earnings yield N/A, momentum +1.7%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE -24.7%, ROIC -23.2%).
Profitability stack: net margin -2.7%, ROE -24.7%, ROIC -23.2%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +10.5%, momentum +1.7%, net margin -2.7%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Origin Materials, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Origin Materials, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Origin Materials, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Thin margins leave little room for error. Cost management and pricing strategy are critical.
Operating Margin
Operating losses indicate the core business is unprofitable. Requires restructuring or revenue growth.
Net Profit Margin
Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.
Profitability Insight
High margin compression: Large gap between gross and net margins suggests operational inefficiencies or heavy debt burden. Focus on expense management and deleveraging.
Origin Materials, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Moderate conversion rate. Some gap between earnings and cash flow may warrant investigation into working capital or non-cash items.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Minimal working capital impact on FCF. Changes in operating assets and liabilities well-managed.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Working capital strain: Significant cash tied up in operations. Monitor receivables collection, inventory turns, and payment terms to optimize cash conversion cycle.
Origin Materials, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Excellent liquidity position. The company can easily cover its short-term obligations with substantial cushion.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Conservative capital structure. The company relies primarily on equity financing, indicating low financial risk.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Financial Health Insight
Strong financial foundation: Excellent liquidity combined with conservative leverage suggests the company is well-positioned to weather economic uncertainties and fund growth opportunities.
Origin Materials, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that ORGN stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 3.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 3.00 to a high of 3.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 3.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 3.00 to a high of 3.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Analyst Conviction
Strong buy conviction: High upside with tight consensus suggests compelling investment opportunity backed by analyst confidence.
Market Sentiment Insight
Rare opportunity: Exceptional upside potential with strong analyst consensus creates a compelling setup. The combination of significant price target premium and tight agreement suggests high-conviction undervaluation that may attract institutional capital.
Origin Materials, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $95K and sold $142K worth of ORGN shares, resulting in $47K of net selling activity.
3 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
3-6 Months
0
0.00
18.2K
6.57K
-7K
-$7K
6-9 Months
91.6K
47.50K
150.0K
82.50K
-35K
-$35K
9-12 Months
98.3K
47.50K
141.4K
53.08K
-6K
-$6K
Top Buyers
Hickox John
Director
$37K
Rogerson Craig A
Director
$32K
Tripeny R Tony
Director
$25K
Top Sellers
Plavan Matthew T
Officer: Cfo And Coo
$83K
Bissell John
Director, Officer: Ceo And Director
$51K
Lee Joshua C.
Officer: General Counsel
$9K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Slightly bearish with $47K net selling. Selling modestly exceeds buying, which could be routine diversification rather than concern.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Moderately negative ratio. Selling is roughly double the buying, which may be routine or signal caution.
Insider Participation
3 insider buyers and 3 sellers. Equal participation suggests mixed or neutral insider views.
No Dividend Yield Data
ORGN has not reported any dividend yield values in the available annual periods.
orgn Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on ORGN by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.