Origin Materials, Inc.

Origin Materials, Inc.

ORGN·NASDAQ

$0.34

+1.7%
Basic MaterialsChemicals

Micromidas, Inc., doing business as Origin Materials, produces and commercializes plant-based PET plastic. It develops a platform for turning the carbon found in biomass into useful materials, while capturing carbon in the process. The company serves tire filler, carbon black, agriculture, and activated carbon markets. Micromidas, Inc. has a strategic alliance with Palantir Technologies Inc. The company was incorporated in 2008 and is based in West Sacramento, California with a facility in Sarnia, Canada.

At a Glance

Live Snapshot
Market Cap$51.10M
EPS-0.5800
P/E Ratio-0.58
Earnings Date05/13/2026

Intrinsic Alpha Methodology

Thesis Lenses

Signal · Driver · Risk

Signal

Medium confidence

Valuation multiple is compressed (P/E -0.6).

Valuation inputs: P/E -0.6, earnings yield N/A, momentum +1.7%.

If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.

Driver

High confidence

Return profile is soft (ROE -24.7%, ROIC -23.2%).

Profitability stack: net margin -2.7%, ROE -24.7%, ROIC -23.2%.

Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.

Risk

High confidence

Risk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.

Risk factors: liabilities/assets +10.5%, momentum +1.7%, net margin -2.7%.

Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.

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Origin Materials, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory

ORGN · NASDAQ

Loading price and EPS data...

Origin Materials, Inc.

Origin Materials, Inc. Fair Value Envelope

ORGN · NASDAQ

Our analysis suggests that ORGN has a fair value of HIDDEN per share in the Base Case projection. With shares currently trading at $0.3381, this represents a potential HIDDEN relative to our calculated worth for Origin Materials, Inc..

Intrinsic Value
Current Price: $0.3381
3Y-238.0%
5Y+57.0%
10Y+57.0%
3Y-
5Y-
10Y-
3Y-299.0%
5Y+17373.0%
10Y+17373.0%
3Y+131.0%
5Y+594.0%
10Y+594.0%
3Y+73.0%
5Y+313.0%
10Y+313.0%
3Y-26.0%
5Y+691.0%
10Y+691.0%
Origin Materials, Inc.

Origin Materials, Inc. Profit Bridge

ORGN · NASDAQ
Revenue31.28M
Cost of Goods Sold (30.86M)
Gross Profit418.00K
Operating Expenses (85.28M)
Operating Income-84.86M
Interest Expense (371.00K)
Other Income/Expense1.83M
Pretax Income-83.03M
Income Tax (669.00K)
Net Income-83.70M
Net Income
-83.70M

Profitability Analysis

Gross Margin

1.3%

Thin margins leave little room for error. Cost management and pricing strategy are critical.

Operating Margin

-271.3%

Operating losses indicate the core business is unprofitable. Requires restructuring or revenue growth.

Net Profit Margin

-267.6%

Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.

Profitability Insight

High margin compression: Large gap between gross and net margins suggests operational inefficiencies or heavy debt burden. Focus on expense management and deleveraging.

1.34%
Gross Profit Margin
-93%
3Y-
5Y-
10Y-
-271.28%
Operating Profit Margin
42%
3Y-
5Y-
10Y-
-267.56%
Net Profit Margin
-424%
3Y-
5Y-
10Y-
-24.74%
Return on Equity
-539%
3Y-278.0%
5Y+1384.0%
10Y+1384.0%
-22.14%
Return on Assets
-530%
3Y-368.0%
5Y+2109.0%
10Y+2109.0%
-23.15%
Return on Invested Capital
82%
3Y-331.0%
5Y-196.0%
10Y-196.0%
ORGN

Origin Materials, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine

ORGN · NASDAQ
Net Income-83.70M
Depreciation & Amortization10.71M
Stock-Based Compensation10.08M
Change in Working Capital-10.60M
Others22.03M
Capital Expenditures-8.95M
Free Cash Flow-59.78M

Cash Flow Quality Analysis

FCF Conversion Rate

71.4%

Moderate conversion rate. Some gap between earnings and cash flow may warrant investigation into working capital or non-cash items.

CapEx Intensity

-17.6%

Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.

FCF Growth Trend

+64.9%

Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.

Working Capital Impact

-$10.60M

Minimal working capital impact on FCF. Changes in operating assets and liabilities well-managed.

Cash Flow Quality Insight

Working capital strain: Significant cash tied up in operations. Monitor receivables collection, inventory turns, and payment terms to optimize cash conversion cycle.

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Origin Materials, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile

ORGN · NASDAQ
Cash & Cash Equivalents34.06M
Net Receivables17.99M
Inventory635.00K
Other Current Assets11.17M
Total Current Assets84 M
Property, Plant & Equipment229.01M
Goodwill & Intangible Assets51.00K
Long-Term Investments0.00
Other Non-Current Assets13.73M
Total Non-Current Assets243 M
Total Assets
327.35M

Financial Health Analysis

Current Ratio

6.33x

Excellent liquidity position. The company can easily cover its short-term obligations with substantial cushion.

Debt-to-Equity Ratio

0.11x

Conservative capital structure. The company relies primarily on equity financing, indicating low financial risk.

Working Capital

71 M

Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.

Asset Composition

26% Current

Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.

Financial Health Insight

Strong financial foundation: Excellent liquidity combined with conservative leverage suggests the company is well-positioned to weather economic uncertainties and fund growth opportunities.

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Origin Materials, Inc. Street Expectations Map

ORGN · NASDAQ

Wall Street analysts project that ORGN stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 3.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 3.00 to a high of 3.00.

Lowest Target
3.00
787.31%
Consensus Target
3.00
787.31%
Highest Target
3.00
787.31%

The consensus 1-year price target stands at 3.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 3.00 to a high of 3.00.

Analyst Consensus Analysis

Upside Potential

+787.3%

Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.

Analyst Agreement

0.0% spread

High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.

Analyst Conviction

Very High

Strong buy conviction: High upside with tight consensus suggests compelling investment opportunity backed by analyst confidence.

Market Sentiment Insight

Rare opportunity: Exceptional upside potential with strong analyst consensus creates a compelling setup. The combination of significant price target premium and tight agreement suggests high-conviction undervaluation that may attract institutional capital.

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Origin Materials, Inc. Insider Positioning

ORGN · NASDAQ

During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $95K and sold $142K worth of ORGN shares, resulting in $47K of net selling activity.

3 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+0

+$0

3-6 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

18.2K

6.57K

Net Activity

-7K

-$7K

6-9 Months

Bought

91.6K

47.50K

Sold

150.0K

82.50K

Net Activity

-35K

-$35K

9-12 Months

Bought

98.3K

47.50K

Sold

141.4K

53.08K

Net Activity

-6K

-$6K

Top Buyers

1
HJ

Hickox John

Director

75.0K shares2 transactions

$37K

2
RCA

Rogerson Craig A

Director

65.0K shares2 transactions

$32K

3
TRT

Tripeny R Tony

Director

50.0K shares2 transactions

$25K

Top Sellers

1
PMT

Plavan Matthew T

Officer: Cfo And Coo

150.0K shares1 transactions

$83K

2
BJ

Bissell John

Director, Officer: Ceo And Director

137.6K shares1 transactions

$51K

3
LJC

Lee Joshua C.

Officer: General Counsel

22.1K shares2 transactions

$9K

Insider Activity Analysis

Net Insider Sentiment

Bearish

Slightly bearish with $47K net selling. Selling modestly exceeds buying, which could be routine diversification rather than concern.

Buy/Sell Ratio

0.67:1

Moderately negative ratio. Selling is roughly double the buying, which may be routine or signal caution.

Insider Participation

Balanced

3 insider buyers and 3 sellers. Equal participation suggests mixed or neutral insider views.

No Dividend Yield Data

ORGN has not reported any dividend yield values in the available annual periods.

 

orgn Dividend History

ORGN
10Y CAGR 5%
Latest $0.08
Annual $0.38
Stable dividend payments
Last Period: +0%