$69.61
+0.65%NorthWestern Corporation, doing business as NorthWestern Energy, provides electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and various industrial customers. The company operates through Electric and Natural Gas segments. It generates, purchases, transmits, and distributes electricity; and produces, purchases, stores, transmits, and distributes natural gas, as well as owns municipal franchises to provide natural gas service in the communities. The company operates 6,819 miles of electric transmission and 18,177 miles of electric distribution lines with approximately 400 transmission and distribution substations; and 2,166 miles of natural gas transmission and 4,945 miles of natural gas distribution lines with approximately 138 city gate stations in Montana. It also operates 1,308 miles of electric transmission and 2,320 miles of electric distribution lines in South Dakota; and 55 miles of natural gas transmission and 2,517 miles of natural gas distribution lines in South Dakota and Nebraska. The company serves approximately 753,600 customers in Montana, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Yellowstone National Park. NorthWestern Corporation was incorporated in 1923 and is based in Sioux Falls, South Dakota.
Warren Buffett's Owner Earnings DCF analysis for intrinsic value calculation
Base year metrics used for projections
Forecast period and terminal assumptions
Calculation flow from present value to intrinsic value per share
Operating Cash Flow - Maintenance CapEx = Owner Earnings
| Metric | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | Year 6 | Year 7 | Year 8 | Year 9 | Year 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $429.1M | $466.7M | $507.6M | $552.2M | $600.6M | $653.3M | $710.6M | $773.0M | $840.8M | $914.6M |
| Maintenance CapEx | -$114.1M | -$124.1M | -$135.0M | -$146.8M | -$159.7M | -$173.7M | -$189.0M | -$205.5M | -$223.6M | -$243.2M |
| Owner Earnings | $315.0M | $342.6M | $372.7M | $405.4M | $440.9M | $479.6M | $521.7M | $567.4M | $617.2M | $671.4M |
| Discount Factor | 0.926 | 0.857 | 0.794 | 0.735 | 0.681 | 0.630 | 0.583 | 0.540 | 0.500 | 0.463 |
| Present Value | $291.6M | $293.7M | $295.8M | $297.9M | $300.1M | $302.2M | $304.4M | $306.6M | $308.8M | $311.0M |
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.