Mesa Air Group, Inc.

Mesa Air Group, Inc.

MESA·NASDAQ

$1.57

-6.0%
IndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air Services

Mesa Air Group, Inc. operates as the holding company for Mesa Airlines, Inc. that provides regional air carrier services under capacity purchase agreements with the American Airlines and the United Airlines. It also engages in leasing aircrafts to third parties. As of September 30, 2021, the company operated a fleet of 167 aircraft, which include 153 owned aircrafts and 14 leased aircrafts with approximately 507 daily departures to 129 cities in the United States and Mexico. Mesa Air Group, Inc. was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona.

At a Glance

Live Snapshot
Market Cap$65.75M
EPS-2.2100
P/E Ratio-0.71
Earnings Date12/23/2025

Intrinsic Alpha Methodology

Thesis Lenses

Signal · Driver · Risk

Signal

Medium confidence

Valuation multiple is compressed (P/E -0.7).

Valuation inputs: P/E -0.7, earnings yield N/A, momentum -6.0%.

If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.

Driver

High confidence

Return profile is soft (ROE -82.6%, ROIC -14.0%).

Profitability stack: net margin -19.1%, ROE -82.6%, ROIC -14.0%.

Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.

Risk

High confidence

Downside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.

Risk factors: liabilities/assets +81.5%, momentum -6.0%, net margin -19.1%.

Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.

mesa

Mesa Air Group, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory

MESA · NASDAQ

Loading price and EPS data...

Mesa Air Group, Inc.

Mesa Air Group, Inc. Fair Value Envelope

MESA · NASDAQ

Our analysis suggests that MESA has a fair value of HIDDEN per share in the Base Case projection. With shares currently trading at $1.57, this represents a potential HIDDEN relative to our calculated worth for Mesa Air Group, Inc..

Intrinsic Value
Current Price: $1.57
3Y-580.0%
5Y-261.0%
10Y-299.0%
3Y-5.0%
5Y-34.0%
10Y-6.0%
3Y-649.0%
5Y-291.0%
10Y-333.0%
3Y-74.0%
5Y-77.0%
10Y-18.0%
3Y-87.0%
5Y-47.0%
10Y-64.0%
3Y-59.0%
5Y-59.0%
10Y-38.0%
Mesa Air Group, Inc.

Mesa Air Group, Inc. Profit Bridge

MESA · NASDAQ
Revenue476.41M
Cost of Goods Sold (417.04M)
Gross Profit59.37M
Operating Expenses (125.19M)
Operating Income-65.82M
Interest Expense (38.45M)
Other Income/Expense-24.68M
Pretax Income-90.50M
Income Tax (519.00K)
Net Income-91.02M
Net Income
-91.02M

Profitability Analysis

Gross Margin

12.5%

Thin margins leave little room for error. Cost management and pricing strategy are critical.

Operating Margin

-13.8%

Operating losses indicate the core business is unprofitable. Requires restructuring or revenue growth.

Net Profit Margin

-19.1%

Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.

12.46%
Gross Profit Margin
311%
3Y+3784.0%
5Y-50.0%
10Y-61.0%
-13.82%
Operating Profit Margin
-18%
3Y-210.0%
5Y-183.0%
10Y-188.0%
-19.10%
Net Profit Margin
-21%
3Y-680.0%
5Y-390.0%
10Y-348.0%
-82.56%
Return on Equity
37%
3Y-2529.0%
5Y-839.0%
10Y-
-15.25%
Return on Assets
14%
3Y-1439.0%
5Y-565.0%
10Y-
-13.95%
Return on Invested Capital
42%
3Y-502.0%
5Y-308.0%
10Y-
MESA

Mesa Air Group, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine

MESA · NASDAQ
Net Income-91.02M
Depreciation & Amortization40.04M
Stock-Based Compensation1.33M
Change in Working Capital13.54M
Others70.59M
Capital Expenditures-20.31M
Free Cash Flow13.93M

Cash Flow Quality Analysis

FCF Conversion Rate

-15.3%

Negative free cash flow despite positive earnings raises concerns about cash generation ability or heavy capital requirements.

CapEx Intensity

59.3%

Capital-intensive operations require significant reinvestment. Monitor whether CapEx is maintenance or growth-oriented.

FCF Growth Trend

+122.9%

Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.

Working Capital Impact

+$13.54M

Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.

mesa

Mesa Air Group, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile

MESA · NASDAQ
Cash & Cash Equivalents42.47M
Net Receivables8.72M
Inventory16.17M
Other Current Assets66.07M
Total Current Assets133 M
Property, Plant & Equipment39.74M
Goodwill & Intangible Assets0.00
Long-Term Investments350.00K
Other Non-Current Assets5.12M
Total Non-Current Assets45 M
Total Assets
178.65M

Financial Health Analysis

Current Ratio

0.76x

Warning: Liquidity concerns. Current assets may not be sufficient to cover short-term obligations.

Working Capital

-41176000

Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets—potential liquidity stress.

Asset Composition

75% Current

Asset-light business model with high liquidity. Majority of assets are easily convertible to cash.

mesa

Mesa Air Group, Inc. Street Expectations Map

MESA · NASDAQ

No Target Data

No analyst price targets available for mesa.

mesa

Mesa Air Group, Inc. Insider Positioning

MESA · NASDAQ

During the last 12 months, there has been no insider trading activity reported for MESA.

3 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+0

+$0

3-6 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+0

+$0

6-9 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+0

+$0

9-12 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+0

+$0

Top Buyers

No buying activity

Top Sellers

No selling activity

Insider Activity Analysis

Net Insider Sentiment

Neutral

No insider trading activity reported. This could indicate blackout periods, lack of conviction, or regulatory restrictions.

Insider Participation

No Activity

No insider trading activity reported from any insiders in the past year.

0.00%
Dividend Yield
3Y-
5Y-
10Y-
 

mesa Dividend History

MESA
10Y CAGR +0%
Latest $0
Annual $0
Stable dividend payments
Last Period: +0%