Mesa Air Group, Inc.
$1.57
-6.0%Mesa Air Group, Inc. operates as the holding company for Mesa Airlines, Inc. that provides regional air carrier services under capacity purchase agreements with the American Airlines and the United Airlines. It also engages in leasing aircrafts to third parties. As of September 30, 2021, the company operated a fleet of 167 aircraft, which include 153 owned aircrafts and 14 leased aircrafts with approximately 507 daily departures to 129 cities in the United States and Mexico. Mesa Air Group, Inc. was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
Medium confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E -0.7).
Valuation inputs: P/E -0.7, earnings yield N/A, momentum -6.0%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE -82.6%, ROIC -14.0%).
Profitability stack: net margin -19.1%, ROE -82.6%, ROIC -14.0%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +81.5%, momentum -6.0%, net margin -19.1%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Mesa Air Group, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Mesa Air Group, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Mesa Air Group, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Thin margins leave little room for error. Cost management and pricing strategy are critical.
Operating Margin
Operating losses indicate the core business is unprofitable. Requires restructuring or revenue growth.
Net Profit Margin
Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.
Mesa Air Group, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Negative free cash flow despite positive earnings raises concerns about cash generation ability or heavy capital requirements.
CapEx Intensity
Capital-intensive operations require significant reinvestment. Monitor whether CapEx is maintenance or growth-oriented.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
Mesa Air Group, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Warning: Liquidity concerns. Current assets may not be sufficient to cover short-term obligations.
Working Capital
Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets—potential liquidity stress.
Asset Composition
Asset-light business model with high liquidity. Majority of assets are easily convertible to cash.
Mesa Air Group, Inc. Street Expectations Map
No Target Data
No analyst price targets available for mesa.
Mesa Air Group, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, there has been no insider trading activity reported for MESA.
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Top Buyers
No buying activity
Top Sellers
No selling activity
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
No insider trading activity reported. This could indicate blackout periods, lack of conviction, or regulatory restrictions.
Insider Participation
No insider trading activity reported from any insiders in the past year.
mesa Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on MESA by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.