Hillman Solutions Corp.
$7.20
-1.4%Hillman Solutions Corp., together with its subsidiaries, provides hardware-related products and related merchandising services in North America. It offers hardware products, including anchor shackles and eye bolts, door hinges and chains, garage doors, safety hasps, gate hooks and latches, magnets, hooks and storage, corner braces and mending plates, and springs; and fasteners, such as anchors, ball bearings, bolts, kits, nails, nuts, pins, rivets, screws, spacers, threaded inserts, tools/brushes, washers, wire hardware, and other accessories. The company also offers driveway markers/reflectors, numbers, letters, plaques, signs, stencils, survey and flagging tapes, and safety and caution products; threaded rods, aluminum tubes, and slotted and aluminum angles; wall hangings, including frame hardware, hooks, picture hanging, adhesives, mirrors, wires, and accessories, as well as picture hanging and tool-free mounting products; face masks, gloves, and glasses; keys and engravings; and electrical, plumbing, and automotive products and accessories. It offers its products under the DECK PLUS, GORILLA GRIP, HILLMAN, HARDWARE Essentials, minute key, POWERPRO, OOK, Fas.n.Tite, Distinctions, AWP, OZCO, The Steel Works, and Digz brand names. The company sells its products to hardware stores, home centers, mass merchants, pet supply stores, and other retail outlets, as well as industrial original equipment manufacturers. Hillman Solutions Corp. was founded in 1964 and is headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is elevated (P/E 36.0).
Valuation inputs: P/E 36.0, earnings yield +2.8%, momentum -1.4%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE +3.3%, ROIC +3.9%).
Profitability stack: net margin +2.6%, ROE +3.3%, ROIC +3.9%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +47.9%, momentum -1.4%, net margin +2.6%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Hillman Solutions Corp. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Hillman Solutions Corp. Fair Value Envelope
Hillman Solutions Corp. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Strong gross margins indicate healthy pricing and efficient production or service delivery.
Operating Margin
Acceptable margins but limited operational leverage. Operating expense control is important.
Net Profit Margin
Minimal profitability after all expenses. Limited financial flexibility for reinvestment or shareholder returns.
Effective Tax Rate
Higher tax burden may reflect limited tax optimization or operations in high-tax jurisdictions.
Profitability Insight
Margin squeeze alert: Healthy gross margins but weak operating margins suggest excessive operating expenses. Cost optimization could unlock significant value.
Hillman Solutions Corp. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Strong cash conversion. Most reported earnings translate into actual cash flow, suggesting solid fundamentals.
CapEx Intensity
Very high capital intensity consumes most operating cash flow. Limited flexibility for dividends or debt reduction.
FCF Growth Trend
Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.
Working Capital Impact
Significant working capital drain. Growth may be consuming cash through inventory buildup or receivables extension—monitor closely.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Capital-intensive growth: Heavy reinvestment limits current cash available but may drive future returns. Assess whether CapEx supports compelling growth opportunities with adequate ROI.
Hillman Solutions Corp. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Excellent liquidity position. The company can easily cover its short-term obligations with substantial cushion.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Balanced capital structure with moderate leverage. Equity exceeds debt, suggesting healthy financial stability.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Financial Health Insight
Strong financial foundation: Excellent liquidity combined with conservative leverage suggests the company is well-positioned to weather economic uncertainties and fund growth opportunities.
Hillman Solutions Corp. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that HLMN stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 14.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 14.00 to a high of 14.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 14.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 14.00 to a high of 14.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Analyst Conviction
Strong buy conviction: High upside with tight consensus suggests compelling investment opportunity backed by analyst confidence.
Market Sentiment Insight
Rare opportunity: Exceptional upside potential with strong analyst consensus creates a compelling setup. The combination of significant price target premium and tight agreement suggests high-conviction undervaluation that may attract institutional capital.
Hillman Solutions Corp. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $180K and sold $207K worth of HLMN shares, resulting in $26K of net selling activity.
3 Months
0
0.00
13.3K
109.88K
-110K
-$110K
3-6 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
6-9 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
9-12 Months
29.7K
180.08K
11.2K
96.64K
+83K
+$83K
Top Buyers
Woodlief Philip
Director
$180K
Top Sellers
Kitzberger Amanda
Officer: Chief Leg. Offic. & Secretary
$98K
Moore Scott Kelley
Officer: Div. Pres. - Robo. And Digital
$64K
Parker Aaron Jerrod
Officer: Chief People Offic.
$45K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Slightly bearish with $26K net selling. Selling modestly exceeds buying, which could be routine diversification rather than concern.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Moderately negative ratio. Selling is roughly double the buying, which may be routine or signal caution.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
3 insider sellers vs. 1 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
Insider Activity Insight
Balanced insider activity: Roughly equal buying and selling suggests normal portfolio management rather than strong directional signals. Look to other metrics for clearer investment insights.
No Dividend Yield Data
HLMN has not reported any dividend yield values in the available annual periods.
hlmn Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on HLMN by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.