Goosehead Insurance, Inc
$36.10
-4.8%Goosehead Insurance, Inc. operates as a holding company for Goosehead Financial, LLC that provides personal lines insurance agency services in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Corporate Channel and Franchise Channel. It offers homeowner's, insurance, automotive, dwelling property insurance, flood, wind, earthquake, excess liability or umbrella, motorcycle, recreational vehicle, general liability, property, and life insurance products and services. As of December 31, 2021, the company had 2,151 total franchises. Goosehead Insurance, Inc. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Westlake, Texas.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is elevated (P/E 66.1).
Valuation inputs: P/E 66.1, earnings yield +1.5%, momentum -4.8%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE -29.1%, ROIC +15.7%).
Profitability stack: net margin +7.6%, ROE -29.1%, ROIC +15.7%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +139.2%, momentum -4.8%, net margin +7.6%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Goosehead Insurance, Inc Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Goosehead Insurance, Inc Fair Value Envelope
Goosehead Insurance, Inc Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Strong gross margins indicate healthy pricing and efficient production or service delivery.
Operating Margin
Healthy operating margins demonstrate effective cost control and strong business fundamentals.
Net Profit Margin
Moderate profitability with room for improvement. Monitor interest expenses and tax efficiency.
Effective Tax Rate
Below-average tax rate suggests effective tax planning, favorable jurisdictions, or tax credits.
Profitability Insight
Room for improvement: Moderate profitability with opportunities to enhance margins through better cost management or pricing strategy.
Goosehead Insurance, Inc Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Minimal working capital impact on FCF. Changes in operating assets and liabilities well-managed.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Exceptional cash generation: High-quality earnings converting to growing free cash flow. The company demonstrates strong pricing power, efficient operations, and disciplined capital allocation.
Goosehead Insurance, Inc Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Acceptable liquidity, but monitor closely. Current assets just barely cover current liabilities.
Working Capital
Positive working capital, but relatively tight. The company should monitor cash flow carefully.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Goosehead Insurance, Inc Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that GSHD stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 61.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 52.00 to a high of 85.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 61.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 52.00 to a high of 85.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
Mixed analyst views. Wide target range suggests differing opinions on key value drivers, growth prospects, or risk factors.
Analyst Conviction
Bearish or uncertain outlook. Limited upside or poor consensus suggests challenges ahead or fundamental concerns.
Market Sentiment Insight
High risk, high reward: Substantial upside potential exists, but wide analyst disagreement signals execution risk or unclear catalysts. Thorough due diligence essential before committing capital.
Goosehead Insurance, Inc Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $1.59M and sold $10.26M worth of GSHD shares, resulting in $8.67M of net selling activity.
3 Months
20.4K
764.54K
125.6K
5.26M
-4.5M
-$4.49M
3-6 Months
5.6K
250.04K
0
0.00
+250K
+$250K
6-9 Months
8.0K
576.97K
68.0K
5.00M
-4.4M
-$4.43M
9-12 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
Top Buyers
Miller Mark
Director, Officer: President And Ceo
$546K
Goldberg Louis
Director
$250K
Thornthwaite Martin Ellis
Officer: General Counsel
$208K
Martin John Arthur
Officer: Chief Financial Officer
$174K
Jones Mark E. Jr.
10 Percent Owner, Officer, Other: President & Coo
$164K
Top Sellers
Mark & Robyn Jones Descendants Trust 2014
10 Percent Owner, Other: Member Of 10% Owner Group
$5.26M
Mcconnon Thomas
Director
$5.00M
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $8.67M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Weak buy/sell ratio. Selling significantly exceeds buying—monitor for potential fundamental concerns.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
5 insider buyers vs. 2 sellers. Broad-based buying across management team suggests widespread confidence.
Insider Activity Insight
Persistent selling pressure: Consistent insider selling with weak buy/sell ratio suggests insiders may be capitalizing on current valuation. Exercise caution and review recent earnings quality and management commentary.
gshd Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on GSHD by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.