Groupon, Inc.
$17.35
-7.7%Groupon, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates a marketplace that connects consumers to merchants. It operates in two segments, North America and International. The company sells goods or services on behalf of third-party merchants; and first-party goods inventory. It serves customers through its mobile applications and websites. The company was formerly known as ThePoint.com, Inc. and changed its name to Groupon, Inc. in October 2008. Groupon, Inc. was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
Medium confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E -8.3).
Valuation inputs: P/E -8.3, earnings yield N/A, momentum -7.7%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE +2.0%, ROIC +4.0%).
Profitability stack: net margin -16.8%, ROE +2.0%, ROIC +4.0%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +106.3%, momentum -7.7%, net margin -16.8%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Groupon, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Groupon, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Groupon, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.
Operating Margin
Minimal operating profit suggests high operating costs or pricing challenges. Scalability is concerning.
Net Profit Margin
Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.
Profitability Insight
Margin squeeze alert: Healthy gross margins but weak operating margins suggest excessive operating expenses. Cost optimization could unlock significant value.
Groupon, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Negative free cash flow despite positive earnings raises concerns about cash generation ability or heavy capital requirements.
CapEx Intensity
Moderate capital requirements typical of many stable businesses. Healthy balance between reinvestment and cash generation.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
Groupon, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Warning: Liquidity concerns. Current assets may not be sufficient to cover short-term obligations.
Working Capital
Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets—potential liquidity stress.
Asset Composition
Balanced asset mix between current and non-current assets, typical of many stable businesses.
Groupon, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that GRPN stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 19.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 13.00 to a high of 26.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 19.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 13.00 to a high of 26.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Moderate upside. Analysts expect positive returns but with limited margin of safety. Consider entry timing.
Analyst Agreement
High uncertainty. Very wide target spread indicates significant disagreement among analysts—major valuation uncertainty or transformation underway.
Risk-Reward Profile
Balanced risk-reward. Upside and downside potential relatively symmetric. Suitable for moderate risk tolerance with conviction in thesis.
Analyst Conviction
High uncertainty: Wide dispersion indicates analysts struggle to agree on valuation—proceed with caution and independent analysis.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
Groupon, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $156K and sold $97K worth of GRPN shares, resulting in $60K of net buying activity.
3 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
3-6 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
6-9 Months
6.9K
156.18K
0
0.00
+156K
+$156K
9-12 Months
0
0.00
3.1K
96.66K
-97K
-$97K
Top Buyers
Netzly Kyle
Officer: Chief Accounting Officer
$156K
Top Sellers
Bass Robert J
Director
$97K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Moderately bullish with $60K net buying. Insiders show cautious optimism through measured share purchases.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Positive buy/sell ratio. Buying exceeds or matches selling, indicating net positive insider sentiment.
Insider Participation
1 insider buyers and 1 sellers. Equal participation suggests mixed or neutral insider views.
No Dividend Yield Data
GRPN has not reported any dividend yield values in the available annual periods.
grpn Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on GRPN by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.