GRAIL, Inc.
$61.13
-5.1%GRAIL, Inc., a biotechnology company, focuses on developing technologies for early cancer detection. The company develops Galleri, a screening test for asymptomatic individuals over 50 years of age; and DAC, a diagnostic aid for cancer tests to accelerate diagnostic resolution for patients for whom there is a clinical suspicion of cancer. It is also developing minimal residual disease and other post-diagnostic tests. The company was incorporated in 2015 and is based in Menlo Park, California. GRAIL, Inc. operates as a former subsidiary of Illumina, Inc.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
Medium confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E -5.5).
Valuation inputs: P/E -5.5, earnings yield N/A, momentum -5.1%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE -15.8%, ROIC -14.3%).
Profitability stack: net margin -2.8%, ROE -15.8%, ROIC -14.3%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +11.8%, momentum -5.1%, net margin -2.8%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
GRAIL, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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GRAIL, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
GRAIL, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Negative gross margin indicates the company is losing money on each sale—unsustainable long-term.
Operating Margin
Operating losses indicate the core business is unprofitable. Requires restructuring or revenue growth.
Net Profit Margin
Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.
Profitability Insight
High margin compression: Large gap between gross and net margins suggests operational inefficiencies or heavy debt burden. Focus on expense management and deleveraging.
GRAIL, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Moderate conversion rate. Some gap between earnings and cash flow may warrant investigation into working capital or non-cash items.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
GRAIL, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Excellent liquidity position. The company can easily cover its short-term obligations with substantial cushion.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Conservative capital structure. The company relies primarily on equity financing, indicating low financial risk.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Financial Health Insight
Strong financial foundation: Excellent liquidity combined with conservative leverage suggests the company is well-positioned to weather economic uncertainties and fund growth opportunities.
GRAIL, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that GRAL stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 75.67, with estimates ranging from a low of 56.00 to a high of 130.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 75.67, with estimates ranging from a low of 56.00 to a high of 130.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Strong upside potential. Consensus indicates attractive return opportunity with favorable risk-reward profile.
Analyst Agreement
High uncertainty. Very wide target spread indicates significant disagreement among analysts—major valuation uncertainty or transformation underway.
Risk-Reward Profile
Favorable risk-reward. Potential upside significantly exceeds downside risk, offering asymmetric return profile attractive for risk-tolerant investors.
Analyst Conviction
High uncertainty: Wide dispersion indicates analysts struggle to agree on valuation—proceed with caution and independent analysis.
Market Sentiment Insight
High risk, high reward: Substantial upside potential exists, but wide analyst disagreement signals execution risk or unclear catalysts. Thorough due diligence essential before committing capital.
GRAIL, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $104.57M worth of GRAL shares, with no buying activity reported.
3 Months
0
0.00
233.4K
11.64M
-11.6M
-$11.64M
3-6 Months
0
0.00
1.4K
75.03K
-75K
-$75K
6-9 Months
0
0.00
1.1M
90.06M
-90.1M
-$90.06M
9-12 Months
0
0.00
60.3K
2.79M
-2.8M
-$2.79M
Top Buyers
No buying activity
Top Sellers
Illumina, Inc.
10 Percent Owner
$79.85M
Ofman Joshua J.
Director, Officer: President
$12.35M
Ragusa Robert P
Director, Officer: Chief Executive Officer
$8.06M
Freidin Aaron
Officer: Chief Financial Officer
$2.91M
Ding Chun R
10 Percent Owner
$1.40M
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $104.57M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
5 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
Insider Activity Insight
Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.
No Dividend Yield Data
GRAL has not reported any dividend yield values in the available annual periods.
gral Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on GRAL by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.