GRAIL, Inc.

GRAIL, Inc.

GRAL·NASDAQ

$61.13

-5.1%
HealthcareMedical - Diagnostics & Research

GRAIL, Inc., a biotechnology company, focuses on developing technologies for early cancer detection. The company develops Galleri, a screening test for asymptomatic individuals over 50 years of age; and DAC, a diagnostic aid for cancer tests to accelerate diagnostic resolution for patients for whom there is a clinical suspicion of cancer. It is also developing minimal residual disease and other post-diagnostic tests. The company was incorporated in 2015 and is based in Menlo Park, California. GRAIL, Inc. operates as a former subsidiary of Illumina, Inc.

At a Glance

Live Snapshot
Market Cap$2.62B
EPS-11.1100
P/E Ratio-5.50
Earnings Date08/11/2026

Intrinsic Alpha Methodology

Thesis Lenses

Signal · Driver · Risk

Signal

Medium confidence

Valuation multiple is compressed (P/E -5.5).

Valuation inputs: P/E -5.5, earnings yield N/A, momentum -5.1%.

If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.

Driver

High confidence

Return profile is soft (ROE -15.8%, ROIC -14.3%).

Profitability stack: net margin -2.8%, ROE -15.8%, ROIC -14.3%.

Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.

Risk

High confidence

Risk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.

Risk factors: liabilities/assets +11.8%, momentum -5.1%, net margin -2.8%.

Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.

gral

GRAIL, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory

GRAL · NASDAQ

Loading price and EPS data...

GRAIL, Inc.

GRAIL, Inc. Fair Value Envelope

GRAL · NASDAQ

Our analysis suggests that GRAL has a fair value of HIDDEN per share in the Base Case projection. With shares currently trading at $61.13, this represents a potential HIDDEN relative to our calculated worth for GRAIL, Inc..

Intrinsic Value
Current Price: $61.13
3Y-94.0%
5Y+341.0%
10Y+359.0%
3Y+165.0%
5Y-
10Y-
3Y-92.0%
5Y+31.0%
10Y+48.0%
3Y-47.0%
5Y+29.0%
10Y+43.0%
3Y-49.0%
5Y+23.0%
10Y+33.0%
3Y-48.0%
5Y+314.0%
10Y+325.0%
GRAIL, Inc.

GRAIL, Inc. Profit Bridge

GRAL · NASDAQ
Revenue147.17M
Cost of Goods Sold (209.75M)
Gross Profit-62.57M
Operating Expenses (471.59M)
Operating Income-534.16M
Interest Expense (0.00)
Other Income/Expense-341.00K
Pretax Income-534.50M
Income Tax (-126.15M)
Net Income-408.35M
Net Income
-408.35M

Profitability Analysis

Gross Margin

-42.5%

Negative gross margin indicates the company is losing money on each sale—unsustainable long-term.

Operating Margin

-363.0%

Operating losses indicate the core business is unprofitable. Requires restructuring or revenue growth.

Net Profit Margin

-277.5%

Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.

Profitability Insight

High margin compression: Large gap between gross and net margins suggests operational inefficiencies or heavy debt burden. Focus on expense management and deleveraging.

-42.52%
Gross Profit Margin
-32%
3Y-80.0%
5Y-
10Y-
-362.95%
Operating Profit Margin
-79%
3Y-96.0%
5Y-
10Y-
-277.47%
Net Profit Margin
-83%
3Y-97.0%
5Y-
10Y-
-15.84%
Return on Equity
-80%
3Y-86.0%
5Y-71.0%
10Y-158.0%
-13.98%
Return on Assets
-79%
3Y-85.0%
5Y-68.0%
10Y-65.0%
-14.30%
Return on Invested Capital
-80%
3Y-85.0%
5Y-72.0%
10Y-69.0%
GRAL

GRAIL, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine

GRAL · NASDAQ
Net Income-408.35M
Depreciation & Amortization0.00
Stock-Based Compensation0.00
Change in Working Capital12.41M
Others96.94M
Capital Expenditures-909.00K
Free Cash Flow-299.01M

Cash Flow Quality Analysis

FCF Conversion Rate

73.2%

Moderate conversion rate. Some gap between earnings and cash flow may warrant investigation into working capital or non-cash items.

CapEx Intensity

-0.3%

Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.

FCF Growth Trend

+48.7%

Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.

Working Capital Impact

+$12.41M

Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.

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GRAIL, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile

GRAL · NASDAQ
Cash & Cash Equivalents69.34M
Net Receivables20.34M
Inventory0.00
Other Current Assets33.90M
Total Current Assets877 M
Property, Plant & Equipment95.91M
Goodwill & Intangible Assets1.82B
Long-Term Investments0.00
Other Non-Current Assets14.25M
Total Non-Current Assets110 M
Total Assets
2.80B

Financial Health Analysis

Current Ratio

11.74x

Excellent liquidity position. The company can easily cover its short-term obligations with substantial cushion.

Debt-to-Equity Ratio

0.12x

Conservative capital structure. The company relies primarily on equity financing, indicating low financial risk.

Working Capital

803 M

Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.

Asset Composition

31% Current

Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.

Financial Health Insight

Strong financial foundation: Excellent liquidity combined with conservative leverage suggests the company is well-positioned to weather economic uncertainties and fund growth opportunities.

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GRAIL, Inc. Street Expectations Map

GRAL · NASDAQ

Wall Street analysts project that GRAL stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 75.67, with estimates ranging from a low of 56.00 to a high of 130.00.

Lowest Target
56.00
-8.39%
Consensus Target
75.67
23.79%
Highest Target
130.00
112.66%

The consensus 1-year price target stands at 75.67, with estimates ranging from a low of 56.00 to a high of 130.00.

Analyst Consensus Analysis

Upside Potential

+23.8%

Strong upside potential. Consensus indicates attractive return opportunity with favorable risk-reward profile.

Analyst Agreement

97.8% spread

High uncertainty. Very wide target spread indicates significant disagreement among analysts—major valuation uncertainty or transformation underway.

Risk-Reward Profile

13.42x

Favorable risk-reward. Potential upside significantly exceeds downside risk, offering asymmetric return profile attractive for risk-tolerant investors.

Analyst Conviction

Low

High uncertainty: Wide dispersion indicates analysts struggle to agree on valuation—proceed with caution and independent analysis.

Market Sentiment Insight

High risk, high reward: Substantial upside potential exists, but wide analyst disagreement signals execution risk or unclear catalysts. Thorough due diligence essential before committing capital.

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GRAIL, Inc. Insider Positioning

GRAL · NASDAQ

During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $104.57M worth of GRAL shares, with no buying activity reported.

3 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

233.4K

11.64M

Net Activity

-11.6M

-$11.64M

3-6 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

1.4K

75.03K

Net Activity

-75K

-$75K

6-9 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

1.1M

90.06M

Net Activity

-90.1M

-$90.06M

9-12 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

60.3K

2.79M

Net Activity

-2.8M

-$2.79M

Top Buyers

No buying activity

Top Sellers

1
II

Illumina, Inc.

10 Percent Owner

1.0M shares1 transactions

$79.85M

2
OJJ

Ofman Joshua J.

Director, Officer: President

205.1K shares10 transactions

$12.35M

3
RRP

Ragusa Robert P

Director, Officer: Chief Executive Officer

145.5K shares3 transactions

$8.06M

4
FA

Freidin Aaron

Officer: Chief Financial Officer

59.4K shares6 transactions

$2.91M

5
DCR

Ding Chun R

10 Percent Owner

27.8K shares1 transactions

$1.40M

Insider Activity Analysis

Net Insider Sentiment

Bearish

Strong bearish signal with $104.57M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.

Buy/Sell Ratio

0.00:1

Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.

Recent Trend (3 Months)

$11.64M

Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.

Insider Participation

High Selling

5 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.

Insider Activity Insight

Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.

No Dividend Yield Data

GRAL has not reported any dividend yield values in the available annual periods.

 

gral Dividend History

GRAL
10Y CAGR +0%
Latest $0
Annual $0
Stable dividend payments
Last Period: +0%