Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.
$8.27
+0.98%Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. owns and operates a network of independently operated stores in the United States. The company's stores offer products in various categories, such as dairy and deli, produce, floral, and fresh meat and seafood products, as well as grocery, general merchandise, health and beauty care, frozen foods, and beer and wine. As of August 09, 2022, it had 425 stores in eight states. The company was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Emeryville, California.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
Medium confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E -3.6).
Valuation inputs: P/E -3.6, earnings yield N/A, momentum +1.0%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE -22.9%, ROIC -7.1%).
Profitability stack: net margin -4.8%, ROE -22.9%, ROIC -7.1%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +68.2%, momentum +1.0%, net margin -4.8%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
Loading price and EPS data...
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. Fair Value Envelope
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Moderate margins typical of competitive industries. Monitor for pricing pressure or rising costs.
Operating Margin
Operating losses indicate the core business is unprofitable. Requires restructuring or revenue growth.
Net Profit Margin
Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.
Profitability Insight
Margin squeeze alert: Healthy gross margins but weak operating margins suggest excessive operating expenses. Cost optimization could unlock significant value.
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Negative free cash flow despite positive earnings raises concerns about cash generation ability or heavy capital requirements.
CapEx Intensity
Very high capital intensity consumes most operating cash flow. Limited flexibility for dividends or debt reduction.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Capital-intensive growth: Heavy reinvestment limits current cash available but may drive future returns. Assess whether CapEx supports compelling growth opportunities with adequate ROI.
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Acceptable liquidity, but monitor closely. Current assets just barely cover current liabilities.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Positive working capital, but relatively tight. The company should monitor cash flow carefully.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that GO stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 11.08, with estimates ranging from a low of 9.00 to a high of 15.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 11.08, with estimates ranging from a low of 9.00 to a high of 15.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
Mixed analyst views. Wide target range suggests differing opinions on key value drivers, growth prospects, or risk factors.
Analyst Conviction
Bearish or uncertain outlook. Limited upside or poor consensus suggests challenges ahead or fundamental concerns.
Market Sentiment Insight
High risk, high reward: Substantial upside potential exists, but wide analyst disagreement signals execution risk or unclear catalysts. Thorough due diligence essential before committing capital.
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $6.55M and sold $907K worth of GO shares, resulting in $5.64M of net buying activity.
3 Months
1.0M
6.24M
100.7K
593.78K
+5.6M
+$5.64M
3-6 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
6-9 Months
18.5K
309.72K
25.0K
313.25K
-4K
-$4K
9-12 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
Top Buyers
Ragatz Erik D.
Director
$2.82M
Potter Jason J. N.
Director, Officer: President And Ceo
$2.41M
York Jeffrey
Director
$687K
Kerr Frank Michael
Officer: See Remarks
$310K
Jaros Carey F.
Director
$250K
Top Sellers
Potter Jason J. N.
Director, Officer: President And Ceo
$394K
Wilson Steven K.
Officer: Evp, Chief Purchasing Officer
$372K
Bortner Andrea Renee
Officer: See Remarks
$69K
Thompson Luke D
Officer: Evp, Gc And Secretary
$43K
Miller Christopher M
Officer: Evp, Chief Financial Officer
$29K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bullish signal with $5.64M net buying. Insiders are aggressively accumulating shares, suggesting significant confidence in future prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Exceptional buy/sell ratio. Buying dramatically outweighs selling—one of the strongest possible insider signals.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Very strong recent buying momentum. Recent insider purchases significantly outpace sales, suggesting near-term optimism.
Insider Participation
5 insider buyers and 5 sellers. Equal participation suggests mixed or neutral insider views.
Insider Activity Insight
Strong confluence of bullish signals: High buy/sell ratio, multiple insiders participating, and recent buying momentum all point to significant insider confidence. This level of coordinated buying often precedes positive developments.
go Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on GO by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.