Firefly Aerospace Inc.
$39.78
-2.0%Firefly Aerospace Inc. operates as a space and defense technology company and provides mission solutions for national security, government, and commercial customers. It offers integrated launch and space services technology that is committed to enabling launch, transit, and operations in space. The company also provides Alpha, a responsive small launch service; Eclipse, a medium-lift launch vehicle; Blue Ghost, a lunar delivery and operation service; Elytra, which offers space maneuverability and servicing; and Ocula, a lunar imaging service. The company was incorporated in 2017 and is headquartered in Cedar Park, Texas.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
Medium confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E -8.2).
Valuation inputs: P/E -8.2, earnings yield N/A, momentum -2.0%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE -25.1%, ROIC -13.5%).
Profitability stack: net margin -1.9%, ROE -25.1%, ROIC -13.5%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +34.8%, momentum -2.0%, net margin -1.9%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Firefly Aerospace Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Firefly Aerospace Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Firefly Aerospace Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Thin margins leave little room for error. Cost management and pricing strategy are critical.
Operating Margin
Operating losses indicate the core business is unprofitable. Requires restructuring or revenue growth.
Net Profit Margin
Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.
Profitability Insight
High margin compression: Large gap between gross and net margins suggests operational inefficiencies or heavy debt burden. Focus on expense management and deleveraging.
Firefly Aerospace Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Moderate conversion rate. Some gap between earnings and cash flow may warrant investigation into working capital or non-cash items.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
Firefly Aerospace Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Excellent liquidity position. The company can easily cover its short-term obligations with substantial cushion.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Conservative capital structure. The company relies primarily on equity financing, indicating low financial risk.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Balanced asset mix between current and non-current assets, typical of many stable businesses.
Financial Health Insight
Strong financial foundation: Excellent liquidity combined with conservative leverage suggests the company is well-positioned to weather economic uncertainties and fund growth opportunities.
Firefly Aerospace Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that FLY stock may experience modest gains over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 41.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 32.00 to a high of 60.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 41.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 32.00 to a high of 60.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Fair value territory. Stock trading near consensus target suggests limited near-term catalysts. Focus on fundamental developments.
Analyst Agreement
High uncertainty. Very wide target spread indicates significant disagreement among analysts—major valuation uncertainty or transformation underway.
Risk-Reward Profile
Favorable risk-reward. Potential upside significantly exceeds downside risk, offering asymmetric return profile attractive for risk-tolerant investors.
Analyst Conviction
High uncertainty: Wide dispersion indicates analysts struggle to agree on valuation—proceed with caution and independent analysis.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
Firefly Aerospace Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $339K worth of FLY shares, with no buying activity reported.
3 Months
0
0.00
7.5K
339.49K
-339K
-$339K
3-6 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
6-9 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
9-12 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
Top Buyers
No buying activity
Top Sellers
Wheeler David Leigh
Officer: General Counsel
$339K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $339K net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
1 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
Insider Activity Insight
Persistent selling pressure: Consistent insider selling with weak buy/sell ratio suggests insiders may be capitalizing on current valuation. Exercise caution and review recent earnings quality and management commentary.
fly Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on FLY by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.