Fold Holdings Inc
$1.00
+5.4%Fold Holdings, Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides a financial services platform that allows customers to earn, accumulate, and utilize bitcoin in their everyday life.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
Medium confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E -1.6).
Valuation inputs: P/E -1.6, earnings yield N/A, momentum +5.4%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE -1.1%, ROIC -20.9%).
Profitability stack: net margin -2.2%, ROE -1.1%, ROIC -20.9%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +59.0%, momentum +5.4%, net margin -2.2%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Fold Holdings Inc Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Fold Holdings Inc Fair Value Envelope
Fold Holdings Inc Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Strong gross margins indicate healthy pricing and efficient production or service delivery.
Operating Margin
Operating losses indicate the core business is unprofitable. Requires restructuring or revenue growth.
Net Profit Margin
Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.
Profitability Insight
Margin squeeze alert: Healthy gross margins but weak operating margins suggest excessive operating expenses. Cost optimization could unlock significant value.
Fold Holdings Inc Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Weak cash conversion. Significant portion of earnings not converting to cash—review working capital trends and capital intensity.
FCF Growth Trend
Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Deteriorating cash generation: Both declining FCF and weak conversion rate signal fundamental challenges. Investigate margin pressure, rising costs, or working capital issues.
Fold Holdings Inc Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Warning: Liquidity concerns. Current assets may not be sufficient to cover short-term obligations.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Elevated leverage. Debt exceeds equity, which amplifies both gains and risks. Monitor debt servicing ability.
Working Capital
Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets—potential liquidity stress.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Financial Health Insight
Negative working capital but strong cash position suggests an efficient operating model (common in retail/subscription businesses) rather than financial distress.
Fold Holdings Inc Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that FLD stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 2.60, with estimates ranging from a low of 1.70 to a high of 3.50.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 2.60, with estimates ranging from a low of 1.70 to a high of 3.50.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
High uncertainty. Very wide target spread indicates significant disagreement among analysts—major valuation uncertainty or transformation underway.
Analyst Conviction
High uncertainty: Wide dispersion indicates analysts struggle to agree on valuation—proceed with caution and independent analysis.
Market Sentiment Insight
High risk, high reward: Substantial upside potential exists, but wide analyst disagreement signals execution risk or unclear catalysts. Thorough due diligence essential before committing capital.
Fold Holdings Inc Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $138K and sold $259K worth of FLD shares, resulting in $121K of net selling activity.
3 Months
18.5K
20.85K
95.2K
115.50K
-95K
-$95K
3-6 Months
0
0.00
97.1K
143.54K
-144K
-$144K
6-9 Months
8.1K
25.31K
0
0.00
+25K
+$25K
9-12 Months
23.5K
91.97K
0
0.00
+92K
+$92K
Top Buyers
Young Bracebridge H Jr
Director
$138K
Top Sellers
Repass Wolfe
Officer: Chief Financial Officer
$144K
Reeves William Brian Poppic
10 Percent Owner, Officer: Chief Executive Officer
$94K
Mcmanus Matt
Officer: Chief Operating Officer
$15K
Dickman Thomas J
Officer: Chief Technology Officer
$6K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Slightly bearish with $121K net selling. Selling modestly exceeds buying, which could be routine diversification rather than concern.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Moderately negative ratio. Selling is roughly double the buying, which may be routine or signal caution.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
4 insider sellers vs. 1 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
No Dividend Yield Data
FLD has not reported any dividend yield values in the available annual periods.
fld Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on FLD by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.