National Vision Holdings, Inc.
$16.68
+2.1%National Vision Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as an optical retailer in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Owned & Host and Legacy. It offers eyeglasses and contact lenses, and optical accessory products; provides eye exams through its America's Best, Eyeglass World, Vista Optical, Fred Meyer, and Vista Optical military, as well as Vision Center branded stores; and offers health maintenance organization and optometric services. As of January 1, 2022, the company operated through 1,278 retail stores, as well as various e-commerce websites. National Vision Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Duluth, Georgia.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is elevated (P/E 45.1).
Valuation inputs: P/E 45.1, earnings yield +2.2%, momentum +2.1%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE +3.4%, ROIC +2.4%).
Profitability stack: net margin +1.5%, ROE +3.4%, ROIC +2.4%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +59.1%, momentum +2.1%, net margin +1.5%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
National Vision Holdings, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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National Vision Holdings, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
National Vision Holdings, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.
Operating Margin
Minimal operating profit suggests high operating costs or pricing challenges. Scalability is concerning.
Net Profit Margin
Minimal profitability after all expenses. Limited financial flexibility for reinvestment or shareholder returns.
Effective Tax Rate
Higher tax burden may reflect limited tax optimization or operations in high-tax jurisdictions.
Profitability Insight
Margin squeeze alert: Healthy gross margins but weak operating margins suggest excessive operating expenses. Cost optimization could unlock significant value.
National Vision Holdings, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.
CapEx Intensity
Capital-intensive operations require significant reinvestment. Monitor whether CapEx is maintenance or growth-oriented.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Moderate working capital outflow. Typical for growing businesses, but ensure it's supporting revenue growth, not inefficiency.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Exceptional cash generation: High-quality earnings converting to growing free cash flow. The company demonstrates strong pricing power, efficient operations, and disciplined capital allocation.
National Vision Holdings, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Warning: Liquidity concerns. Current assets may not be sufficient to cover short-term obligations.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Elevated leverage. Debt exceeds equity, which amplifies both gains and risks. Monitor debt servicing ability.
Working Capital
Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets—potential liquidity stress.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Financial Health Insight
Negative working capital with limited cash reserves requires immediate attention—potential liquidity crisis if not addressed promptly.
National Vision Holdings, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that EYE stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 31.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 22.00 to a high of 40.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 31.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 22.00 to a high of 40.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
Mixed analyst views. Wide target range suggests differing opinions on key value drivers, growth prospects, or risk factors.
Analyst Conviction
Bearish or uncertain outlook. Limited upside or poor consensus suggests challenges ahead or fundamental concerns.
Market Sentiment Insight
High risk, high reward: Substantial upside potential exists, but wide analyst disagreement signals execution risk or unclear catalysts. Thorough due diligence essential before committing capital.
National Vision Holdings, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $3.00M worth of EYE shares, with no buying activity reported.
3 Months
0
0.00
42.6K
1.15M
-1.2M
-$1.15M
3-6 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
6-9 Months
0
0.00
12.6K
301.28K
-301K
-$301K
9-12 Months
0
0.00
64.7K
1.54M
-1.5M
-$1.54M
Top Buyers
No buying activity
Top Sellers
Fahs L Reade
Director, Officer: Executive Chairman
$2.07M
Wilkes Alexander
Director, Officer: Chief Executive Officer
$929K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $3.00M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
2 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
Insider Activity Insight
Persistent selling pressure: Consistent insider selling with weak buy/sell ratio suggests insiders may be capitalizing on current valuation. Exercise caution and review recent earnings quality and management commentary.
eye Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on EYE by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.