$16.68
+2.1%National Vision Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as an optical retailer in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Owned & Host and Legacy. It offers eyeglasses and contact lenses, and optical accessory products; provides eye exams through its America's Best, Eyeglass World, Vista Optical, Fred Meyer, and Vista Optical military, as well as Vision Center branded stores; and offers health maintenance organization and optometric services. As of January 1, 2022, the company operated through 1,278 retail stores, as well as various e-commerce websites. National Vision Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Duluth, Georgia.
Warren Buffett's Owner Earnings DCF analysis for intrinsic value calculation
Base year metrics used for projections
Forecast period and terminal assumptions
Calculation flow from present value to intrinsic value per share
Operating Cash Flow - Maintenance CapEx = Owner Earnings
| Metric | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | Year 6 | Year 7 | Year 8 | Year 9 | Year 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $281.7M | $542.5M | $1.0B | $2.0B | $3.9B | $7.5B | $14.4B | $27.7B | $53.3B | $102.6B |
| Maintenance CapEx | -$28.1M | -$54.0M | -$104.0M | -$200.3M | -$385.8M | -$742.8M | -$1.4B | -$2.8B | -$5.3B | -$10.2B |
| Owner Earnings | $253.7M | $488.5M | $940.6M | $1.8B | $3.5B | $6.7B | $12.9B | $24.9B | $48.0B | $92.4B |
| Discount Factor | 0.926 | 0.857 | 0.794 | 0.735 | 0.681 | 0.630 | 0.583 | 0.540 | 0.500 | 0.463 |
| Present Value | $234.9M | $418.8M | $746.7M | $1.3B | $2.4B | $4.2B | $7.5B | $13.5B | $24.0B | $42.8B |
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.