Warren Buffett's Owner Earnings DCF analysis for intrinsic value calculation
Base year metrics used for projections
Forecast period and terminal assumptions
Calculation flow from present value to intrinsic value per share
Operating Cash Flow - Maintenance CapEx = Owner Earnings
| Metric | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | Year 6 | Year 7 | Year 8 | Year 9 | Year 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | -$1.7M | -$2.2M | -$2.8M | -$3.6M | -$4.5M | -$5.8M | -$7.3M | -$9.3M | -$11.8M | -$15.1M |
| Maintenance CapEx | -$113.9K | -$144.7K | -$183.9K | -$233.7K | -$296.9K | -$377.4K | -$479.5K | -$609.4K | -$774.4K | -$984.1K |
| Owner Earnings | -$1.9M | -$2.4M | -$3.0M | -$3.8M | -$4.8M | -$6.2M | -$7.8M | -$9.9M | -$12.6M | -$16.0M |
| Discount Factor | 0.926 | 0.857 | 0.794 | 0.735 | 0.681 | 0.630 | 0.583 | 0.540 | 0.500 | 0.463 |
| Present Value | -$1.7M | -$2.0M | -$2.4M | -$2.8M | -$3.3M | -$3.9M | -$4.6M | -$5.4M | -$6.3M | -$7.4M |
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