Commerce Bancshares, Inc.
$51.36
+0.32%Commerce Bancshares, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Commerce Bank that provides retail, mortgage banking, corporate, investment, trust, and asset management products and services to individuals and businesses in the United States. It operates through three segments: Consumer, Commercial, and Wealth. The Consumer segment offers various banking products and services, including consumer deposits; consumer loans, such as automobile, motorcycle, marine, tractor/trailer, recreational vehicle, fixed rate and revolving home equity, and other consumer loans; patient health care financing; real estate loans; indirect and other consumer financing; personal mortgage banking; consumer installment lending; and consumer debit and credit bank cards. The Commercial segment provides corporate lending, leasing, international, merchant and commercial bank card, and securities safekeeping and bond accounting services; and business products, government deposits, and related commercial cash management services, as well as sells fixed income securities to correspondent banks, corporations, public institutions, municipalities, and individuals. The Wealth segment provides traditional trust and estate planning, advisory and discretionary investment portfolio management, and brokerage services, as well as private banking accounts. The company also offers private equity investment, securities brokerage, insurance agency, specialty lending, and leasing services, as well as online and mobile banking services. It operates through a network of 287 locations in Missouri, Kansas, Illinois, Oklahoma, and Colorado, as well as commercial offices. Commerce Bancshares, Inc. was founded in 1865 and is headquartered in Kansas City, Missouri.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E 12.6).
Valuation inputs: P/E 12.6, earnings yield +7.9%, momentum +0.3%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is acceptable (ROE +14.9%, ROIC +4.2%).
Profitability stack: net margin +26.5%, ROE +14.9%, ROIC +4.2%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +88.4%, momentum +0.3%, net margin +26.5%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Commerce Bancshares, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
Loading price and EPS data...
Commerce Bancshares, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Commerce Bancshares, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.
Operating Margin
Outstanding operational efficiency. The company generates substantial profit from core operations.
Net Profit Margin
Exceptional profitability. The company converts a significant portion of revenue to bottom-line earnings.
Effective Tax Rate
Moderate tax rate typical for most corporations. Represents standard tax burden on profits.
Profitability Insight
Exceptional profitability across all levels: Strong pricing power, efficient operations, and healthy bottom line indicate a high-quality business with sustainable competitive advantages.
Commerce Bancshares, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Steady FCF growth indicates consistent cash generation improvement. On a positive trajectory.
Working Capital Impact
Minimal working capital impact on FCF. Changes in operating assets and liabilities well-managed.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Exceptional cash generation: High-quality earnings converting to growing free cash flow. The company demonstrates strong pricing power, efficient operations, and disciplined capital allocation.
Commerce Bancshares, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Commerce Bancshares, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that CBSH stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 58.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 58.50 to a high of 58.50.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 58.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 58.50 to a high of 58.50.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Moderate upside. Analysts expect positive returns but with limited margin of safety. Consider entry timing.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Analyst Conviction
Positive outlook with reasonable agreement. Analysts generally optimistic about prospects with manageable uncertainty.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
Commerce Bancshares, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $119K and sold $2.15M worth of CBSH shares, resulting in $2.03M of net selling activity.
3 Months
2.5K
119.28K
0
0.00
+119K
+$119K
3-6 Months
0
0.00
39.8K
2.15M
-2.1M
-$2.15M
6-9 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
9-12 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
Top Buyers
Dunn Timothy S
Director
$119K
Top Sellers
Kemper John W
Director, Officer: President And Ceo
$1.26M
Barth Kevin G
Officer: Executive Vice President
$411K
Roller David L.
Officer: Senior Vice President
$173K
Kemper David W
Director, Officer: Executive Chairman
$149K
Brooks Derrick
Officer: Senior Vice President
$57K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $2.03M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Very strong recent buying momentum. Recent insider purchases significantly outpace sales, suggesting near-term optimism.
Insider Participation
5 insider sellers vs. 1 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
cbsh Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on CBSH by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.