The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated
$64.88
-0.062%The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated operates restaurants. It operates two bakeries that produces cheesecakes and other baked products for its restaurants, international licensees, third-party bakery customers, external foodservice operators, retailers, and distributors. The company owns and operates 306 restaurants throughout the United States and Canada under brands, including 208 The Cheesecake Factory and 29 North Italia; and a collection of Fox Restaurant Concepts, as well as 29 The Cheesecake Factory restaurants under licensing agreements internationally. The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Calabasas, California.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is mid-range (P/E 20.5).
Valuation inputs: P/E 20.5, earnings yield +4.9%, momentum -0.1%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is strong (ROE +34.0%, ROIC +6.3%).
Profitability stack: net margin +4.0%, ROE +34.0%, ROIC +6.3%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +86.6%, momentum -0.1%, net margin +4.0%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated Fair Value Envelope
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.
Operating Margin
Minimal operating profit suggests high operating costs or pricing challenges. Scalability is concerning.
Net Profit Margin
Minimal profitability after all expenses. Limited financial flexibility for reinvestment or shareholder returns.
Effective Tax Rate
Below-average tax rate suggests effective tax planning, favorable jurisdictions, or tax credits.
Profitability Insight
Margin squeeze alert: Healthy gross margins but weak operating margins suggest excessive operating expenses. Cost optimization could unlock significant value.
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.
CapEx Intensity
Capital-intensive operations require significant reinvestment. Monitor whether CapEx is maintenance or growth-oriented.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Minimal working capital impact on FCF. Changes in operating assets and liabilities well-managed.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Exceptional cash generation: High-quality earnings converting to growing free cash flow. The company demonstrates strong pricing power, efficient operations, and disciplined capital allocation.
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Conservative capital structure. The company relies primarily on equity financing, indicating low financial risk.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Asset-light business model with high liquidity. Majority of assets are easily convertible to cash.
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that CAKE stock may experience modest gains over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 65.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 53.00 to a high of 75.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 65.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 53.00 to a high of 75.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Fair value territory. Stock trading near consensus target suggests limited near-term catalysts. Focus on fundamental developments.
Analyst Agreement
Good consensus alignment. Moderate target spread reflects general agreement on value drivers with some variance in assumptions.
Risk-Reward Profile
Unfavorable risk-reward. Downside risk exceeds upside potential. Consider defensive positioning or alternative opportunities.
Analyst Conviction
Neutral sentiment. Fair value pricing with moderate agreement suggests wait-and-see approach or catalyst-driven opportunity.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $617K and sold $7.68M worth of CAKE shares, resulting in $7.07M of net selling activity.
3 Months
0
0.00
109.2K
6.67M
-6.7M
-$6.67M
3-6 Months
0
0.00
15.4K
1.01M
-1.0M
-$1.01M
6-9 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
9-12 Months
13.4K
616.80K
0
0.00
+617K
+$617K
Top Buyers
Gordon David M
Officer: President
$617K
Top Sellers
Overton David
Director, Officer: Chairman And C.E.O.
$6.35M
Clark Matthew Eliot
Officer: Exec Vp, Cfo
$460K
May Scarlett
Officer: Evp, General Counsel
$328K
Alex Spero G
Officer: Evp Operations - Cfri
$316K
Hanscom Ashley W
Officer: Principal Accounting Officer
$194K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $7.07M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
5 insider sellers vs. 1 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
Insider Activity Insight
Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.
cake Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on CAKE by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.