Blue Bird Corporation
$72.43
+4.5%Blue Bird Corporation designs, engineers, manufactures, and sells school buses and related parts in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Bus and Parts. The company offers Type C, Type D, and specialty buses; and alternative fuel applications through its propane powered, gasoline powered, compressed natural gas powered, and electric powered school buses. Blue Bird Corporation sells its products through a network of dealers, as well as directly to fleet operators, the United States government, and state governments; and maintains a parts distribution center. Blue Bird Corporation was formerly known as Hennessy Capital Acquisition Corp. The company was founded in 1927 and is headquartered in Macon, Georgia.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is mid-range (P/E 18.1).
Valuation inputs: P/E 18.1, earnings yield +5.5%, momentum +4.5%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is strong (ROE +50.0%, ROIC +31.6%).
Profitability stack: net margin +8.6%, ROE +50.0%, ROIC +31.6%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile looks controlled across current risk inputs.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +59.2%, momentum +4.5%, net margin +8.6%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Blue Bird Corporation Market vs Earnings Trajectory
Performance Analysis
EPS Growth
Positive earnings growth shows the company is improving its profitability over time.
Price-EPS Relationship
Stock price is moving in line with earnings growth—a healthy sign of fundamental-driven valuation.
Stock Price Change
Over the 1Y period, stock price has increased by 85.6%.
P/E Ratio (TTM)
Moderate P/E ratio suggests fair market valuation relative to earnings.
Key Insight
Stock price (+85.6%) is outpacing earnings growth (+15.7%), suggesting the market may be pricing in future growth. Monitor if earnings can catch up to justify the valuation.
Blue Bird Corporation Fair Value Envelope
Blue Bird Corporation Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Moderate margins typical of competitive industries. Monitor for pricing pressure or rising costs.
Operating Margin
Acceptable margins but limited operational leverage. Operating expense control is important.
Net Profit Margin
Moderate profitability with room for improvement. Monitor interest expenses and tax efficiency.
Effective Tax Rate
Higher tax burden may reflect limited tax optimization or operations in high-tax jurisdictions.
Profitability Insight
Efficient profit conversion: Minimal margin compression from gross to net indicates lean operations and favorable tax/interest environment.
Blue Bird Corporation Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Exceptional cash generation: High-quality earnings converting to growing free cash flow. The company demonstrates strong pricing power, efficient operations, and disciplined capital allocation.
Blue Bird Corporation Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Strong liquidity. The company has adequate resources to meet short-term liabilities.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Conservative capital structure. The company relies primarily on equity financing, indicating low financial risk.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Asset-light business model with high liquidity. Majority of assets are easily convertible to cash.
Financial Health Insight
Strong financial foundation: Excellent liquidity combined with conservative leverage suggests the company is well-positioned to weather economic uncertainties and fund growth opportunities.
Blue Bird Corporation Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that BLBD stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 80.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 75.00 to a high of 86.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 80.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 75.00 to a high of 86.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Moderate upside. Analysts expect positive returns but with limited margin of safety. Consider entry timing.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Analyst Conviction
Positive outlook with reasonable agreement. Analysts generally optimistic about prospects with manageable uncertainty.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
Blue Bird Corporation Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $315K and sold $1.73M worth of BLBD shares, resulting in $1.41M of net selling activity.
3 Months
300
19.53K
0
0.00
+20K
+$20K
3-6 Months
0
0.00
36.3K
1.73M
-1.7M
-$1.73M
6-9 Months
14.0K
295.51K
0
0.00
+296K
+$296K
9-12 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
Top Buyers
Horlock Phil
Director
$275K
Thau Daniel Mark
Director
$40K
Top Sellers
Radulescu Razvan
Officer: Chief Financial Officer
$1.00M
Sanfrey Jeffrey Scott
Officer: Chief Operating Officer
$368K
Horlock Phil
Director
$356K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $1.41M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Weak buy/sell ratio. Selling significantly exceeds buying—monitor for potential fundamental concerns.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Very strong recent buying momentum. Recent insider purchases significantly outpace sales, suggesting near-term optimism.
Insider Participation
3 insider sellers vs. 2 buyers. More insiders selling than buying suggests cautious or negative sentiment.
blbd Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on BLBD by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.