AXT, Inc.

AXT, Inc.

AXTIยทNASDAQ

$106.70

-0.58%
TechnologySemiconductors

AXT, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and distributes compound and single element semiconductor substrates. It produces semiconductor substrates using its proprietary vertical gradient freeze technology. The company offers indium phosphide for use in data center connectivity using light/lasers, 5G communications, fiber optic lasers and detectors, passive optical networks, silicon photonics, photonic integrated circuits, terrestrial solar cells, RF amplifier and switching, infrared light-emitting diode (LEDS) motion control, lidar for robotics and autonomous vehicles, and infrared thermal imaging. It also provides semi-insulating gallium arsenide (GaAs) substrates for use in Wi-Fi and IoT devices, transistors, direct broadcast television, power amplifiers, satellite communications, and solar cells; and semi-conducting GaAs substrates that are used in LED, screen displays, printer head lasers and LEDs, 3-D sensing using VCSELs, data center communication using VCSELs, sensors for industrial robotics/near-infrared sensors, optical couplers, solar cells, night vision goggles, lidar for robotics and autonomous vehicles, and other lasers, as well as laser machining, cutting, and drilling. In addition, the company offers germanium substrates for use in multi-junction solar cells for satellites, optical sensors and detectors, terrestrial concentrated photo voltaic cells, infrared detectors, and carrier wafer for LED. Further, it provides 6N+ and 7N+ purified gallium, boron trioxide, gallium-magnesium alloy, pyrolytic boron nitride (pBN) crucibles, and pBN insulating parts. AXT, Inc. sells its products through direct salesforce in the United States, China, and Europe, as well as through independent sales representatives and distributors in Japan, Taiwan, Korea, and internationally. The company was formerly known as American Xtal Technology, Inc. and changed its name to AXT, Inc. in July 2000. AXT, Inc. was incorporated in 1986 and is headquartered in Fremont, California.

At a Glance

Live Snapshot
Market Cap$4.95B
EPS-0.4900
P/E Ratio-217.76
Earnings Date07/30/2026

Intrinsic Alpha Methodology

Thesis Lenses

Signal ยท Driver ยท Risk

Signal

Medium confidence

Valuation multiple is compressed (P/E -217.8).

Valuation inputs: P/E -217.8, earnings yield N/A, momentum -0.6%.

If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.

Driver

High confidence

Return profile is soft (ROE -7.8%, ROIC -5.4%).

Profitability stack: net margin -24.1%, ROE -7.8%, ROIC -5.4%.

Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.

Risk

High confidence

Risk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.

Risk factors: liabilities/assets +22.9%, momentum -0.6%, net margin -24.1%.

Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.

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AXT, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory

AXTI ยท NASDAQ

Loading price and EPS data...

AXT, Inc.

AXT, Inc. Fair Value Envelope

AXTI ยท NASDAQ

Our analysis suggests that AXTI has a fair value of HIDDEN per share in the Base Case projection. With shares currently trading at $106.7, this represents a potential HIDDEN relative to our calculated worth for AXT, Inc..

Intrinsic Value
Current Price: $106.7
3Y-232.0%
5Y-743.0%
10Y-388.0%
3Y-37.0%
5Y-7.0%
10Y+9.0%
3Y-234.0%
5Y-757.0%
10Y-477.0%
3Y+46.0%
5Y-318.0%
10Y-202.0%
3Y-50.0%
5Y+34.0%
10Y-292.0%
3Y+17.0%
5Y+45.0%
10Y+181.0%
AXT, Inc.

AXT, Inc. Profit Bridge

AXTI ยท NASDAQ
Revenue88.33M
Cost of Goods Sold (77.08M)
Gross Profit11.24M
Operating Expenses (33.22M)
Operating Income-21.98M
Interest Expense (1.26M)
Other Income/Expense432.00K
Pretax Income-21.54M
Income Tax (1.66M)
Net Income-21.26M
Net Income
-21.26M

Profitability Analysis

Gross Margin

12.7%

Thin margins leave little room for error. Cost management and pricing strategy are critical.

Operating Margin

-24.9%

Operating losses indicate the core business is unprofitable. Requires restructuring or revenue growth.

Net Profit Margin

-24.1%

Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.

12.73%
Gross Profit Margin
-47%
3Y-66.0%
5Y-60.0%
10Y-61.0%
-24.88%
Operating Profit Margin
67%
3Y-380.0%
5Y-702.0%
10Y-415.0%
-24.07%
Net Profit Margin
106%
3Y-315.0%
5Y-809.0%
10Y-447.0%
-7.78%
Return on Equity
29%
3Y-209.0%
5Y-563.0%
10Y-288.0%
-4.90%
Return on Assets
43%
3Y-215.0%
5Y-552.0%
10Y-234.0%
-5.41%
Return on Invested Capital
14%
3Y-265.0%
5Y-622.0%
10Y-237.0%
AXTI

AXT, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine

AXTI ยท NASDAQ
Net Income-21.26M
Depreciation & Amortization9.11M
Stock-Based Compensation0.00
Change in Working Capital-2.00M
Others1.46M
Capital Expenditures-6.00M
Free Cash Flow-18.78M

Cash Flow Quality Analysis

FCF Conversion Rate

88.3%

Strong cash conversion. Most reported earnings translate into actual cash flow, suggesting solid fundamentals.

CapEx Intensity

-46.9%

Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.

FCF Growth Trend

-5.0%

Declining FCF warrants attention. Investigate whether due to temporary factors or fundamental deterioration.

Working Capital Impact

-$2.00M

Minimal working capital impact on FCF. Changes in operating assets and liabilities well-managed.

Cash Flow Quality Insight

Working capital strain: Significant cash tied up in operations. Monitor receivables collection, inventory turns, and payment terms to optimize cash conversion cycle.

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AXT, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile

AXTI ยท NASDAQ
Cash & Cash Equivalents41.77M
Net Receivables32.02M
Inventory90.17M
Other Current Assets24.45M
Total Current Assets254 M
Property, Plant & Equipment166.48M
Goodwill & Intangible Assets0.00
Long-Term Investments0.00
Other Non-Current Assets24.35M
Total Non-Current Assets191 M
Total Assets
444.60M

Financial Health Analysis

Current Ratio

2.59x

Excellent liquidity position. The company can easily cover its short-term obligations with substantial cushion.

Debt-to-Equity Ratio

0.32x

Conservative capital structure. The company relies primarily on equity financing, indicating low financial risk.

Working Capital

156 M

Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.

Asset Composition

57% Current

Balanced asset mix between current and non-current assets, typical of many stable businesses.

Financial Health Insight

Strong financial foundation: Excellent liquidity combined with conservative leverage suggests the company is well-positioned to weather economic uncertainties and fund growth opportunities.

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AXT, Inc. Street Expectations Map

AXTI ยท NASDAQ

Wall Street analysts project that AXTI stock may decline over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 59.40, with estimates ranging from a low of 18.00 to a high of 125.00.

Lowest Target
18.00
-83.13%
Consensus Target
59.40
-44.33%
Highest Target
125.00
17.15%

The consensus 1-year price target stands at 59.40, with estimates ranging from a low of 18.00 to a high of 125.00.

Analyst Consensus Analysis

Upside Potential

-44.3%

Significant downside risk. Stock trading well above analyst consensus suggests elevated valuation concerns and potential correction.

Analyst Agreement

180.1% spread

High uncertainty. Very wide target spread indicates significant disagreement among analystsโ€”major valuation uncertainty or transformation underway.

Risk-Reward Profile

0.21x

Unfavorable risk-reward. Downside risk exceeds upside potential. Consider defensive positioning or alternative opportunities.

Analyst Conviction

Low

High uncertainty: Wide dispersion indicates analysts struggle to agree on valuationโ€”proceed with caution and independent analysis.

Market Sentiment Insight

Extreme uncertainty: Massive dispersion in price targets reflects fundamental disagreement on business trajectory. This could signal transformation, disruption, or complex valuationโ€”requires deep sector expertise and contrarian mindset.

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AXT, Inc. Insider Positioning

AXTI ยท NASDAQ

During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $22K and sold $49.00M worth of AXTI shares, resulting in $48.98M of net selling activity.

3 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

369.5K

16.29M

Net Activity

-16.3M

-$16.29M

3-6 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

709.2K

27.81M

Net Activity

-27.8M

-$27.81M

6-9 Months

Bought

10.3K

22.41K

Sold

506.0K

4.89M

Net Activity

-4.9M

-$4.87M

9-12 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+0

+$0

Top Buyers

1
FGL

Fischer Gary L

Officer: Cfo

10.3K sharesโ€ข1 transactions

$22K

Top Sellers

1
FGL

Fischer Gary L

Officer: Cfo

698.5K sharesโ€ข7 transactions

$23.24M

2
YMS

Young Morris S

Director, Officer: Ceo

547.8K sharesโ€ข9 transactions

$17.10M

3
CJ

Chen Jesse

Director

99.8K sharesโ€ข10 transactions

$4.33M

4
CDC

Chang David C

Director

235.0K sharesโ€ข7 transactions

$4.30M

5
LLJ

Leblanc Leonard J

Director

3.6K sharesโ€ข1 transactions

$31K

Insider Activity Analysis

Net Insider Sentiment

Bearish

Strong bearish signal with $48.98M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.

Buy/Sell Ratio

0.00:1

Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.

Recent Trend (3 Months)

$16.29M

Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchasesโ€”may warrant investigation into company developments.

Insider Participation

High Selling

5 insider sellers vs. 1 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.

Insider Activity Insight

Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.

0.00%
Dividend Yield
3Y-
5Y-
10Y-
ย 

axti Dividend History

AXTI
10Y CAGR +0%
Latest $0
Annual $0
Stable dividend payments
Last Period: +0%