AXT, Inc.
$106.70
-0.58%AXT, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and distributes compound and single element semiconductor substrates. It produces semiconductor substrates using its proprietary vertical gradient freeze technology. The company offers indium phosphide for use in data center connectivity using light/lasers, 5G communications, fiber optic lasers and detectors, passive optical networks, silicon photonics, photonic integrated circuits, terrestrial solar cells, RF amplifier and switching, infrared light-emitting diode (LEDS) motion control, lidar for robotics and autonomous vehicles, and infrared thermal imaging. It also provides semi-insulating gallium arsenide (GaAs) substrates for use in Wi-Fi and IoT devices, transistors, direct broadcast television, power amplifiers, satellite communications, and solar cells; and semi-conducting GaAs substrates that are used in LED, screen displays, printer head lasers and LEDs, 3-D sensing using VCSELs, data center communication using VCSELs, sensors for industrial robotics/near-infrared sensors, optical couplers, solar cells, night vision goggles, lidar for robotics and autonomous vehicles, and other lasers, as well as laser machining, cutting, and drilling. In addition, the company offers germanium substrates for use in multi-junction solar cells for satellites, optical sensors and detectors, terrestrial concentrated photo voltaic cells, infrared detectors, and carrier wafer for LED. Further, it provides 6N+ and 7N+ purified gallium, boron trioxide, gallium-magnesium alloy, pyrolytic boron nitride (pBN) crucibles, and pBN insulating parts. AXT, Inc. sells its products through direct salesforce in the United States, China, and Europe, as well as through independent sales representatives and distributors in Japan, Taiwan, Korea, and internationally. The company was formerly known as American Xtal Technology, Inc. and changed its name to AXT, Inc. in July 2000. AXT, Inc. was incorporated in 1986 and is headquartered in Fremont, California.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
Medium confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E -217.8).
Valuation inputs: P/E -217.8, earnings yield N/A, momentum -0.6%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE -7.8%, ROIC -5.4%).
Profitability stack: net margin -24.1%, ROE -7.8%, ROIC -5.4%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +22.9%, momentum -0.6%, net margin -24.1%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
AXT, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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AXT, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
AXT, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Thin margins leave little room for error. Cost management and pricing strategy are critical.
Operating Margin
Operating losses indicate the core business is unprofitable. Requires restructuring or revenue growth.
Net Profit Margin
Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.
AXT, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Strong cash conversion. Most reported earnings translate into actual cash flow, suggesting solid fundamentals.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Declining FCF warrants attention. Investigate whether due to temporary factors or fundamental deterioration.
Working Capital Impact
Minimal working capital impact on FCF. Changes in operating assets and liabilities well-managed.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Working capital strain: Significant cash tied up in operations. Monitor receivables collection, inventory turns, and payment terms to optimize cash conversion cycle.
AXT, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Excellent liquidity position. The company can easily cover its short-term obligations with substantial cushion.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Conservative capital structure. The company relies primarily on equity financing, indicating low financial risk.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Balanced asset mix between current and non-current assets, typical of many stable businesses.
Financial Health Insight
Strong financial foundation: Excellent liquidity combined with conservative leverage suggests the company is well-positioned to weather economic uncertainties and fund growth opportunities.
AXT, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that AXTI stock may decline over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 59.40, with estimates ranging from a low of 18.00 to a high of 125.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 59.40, with estimates ranging from a low of 18.00 to a high of 125.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Significant downside risk. Stock trading well above analyst consensus suggests elevated valuation concerns and potential correction.
Analyst Agreement
High uncertainty. Very wide target spread indicates significant disagreement among analystsโmajor valuation uncertainty or transformation underway.
Risk-Reward Profile
Unfavorable risk-reward. Downside risk exceeds upside potential. Consider defensive positioning or alternative opportunities.
Analyst Conviction
High uncertainty: Wide dispersion indicates analysts struggle to agree on valuationโproceed with caution and independent analysis.
Market Sentiment Insight
Extreme uncertainty: Massive dispersion in price targets reflects fundamental disagreement on business trajectory. This could signal transformation, disruption, or complex valuationโrequires deep sector expertise and contrarian mindset.
AXT, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $22K and sold $49.00M worth of AXTI shares, resulting in $48.98M of net selling activity.
3 Months
0
0.00
369.5K
16.29M
-16.3M
-$16.29M
3-6 Months
0
0.00
709.2K
27.81M
-27.8M
-$27.81M
6-9 Months
10.3K
22.41K
506.0K
4.89M
-4.9M
-$4.87M
9-12 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
Top Buyers
Fischer Gary L
Officer: Cfo
$22K
Top Sellers
Fischer Gary L
Officer: Cfo
$23.24M
Young Morris S
Director, Officer: Ceo
$17.10M
Chen Jesse
Director
$4.33M
Chang David C
Director
$4.30M
Leblanc Leonard J
Director
$31K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $48.98M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchasesโmay warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
5 insider sellers vs. 1 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
Insider Activity Insight
Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.
axti Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on AXTI by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.