Avalo Therapeutics, Inc.
$13.74
-2.2%Avalo Therapeutics, Inc., a clinical-stage precision medicine company, discovers, develops, and commercializes targeted therapeutics for patients with unmet clinical need in immunology, immuno-oncology, and rare genetic diseases. It develops AVTX-002, a fully human anti-LIGHT monoclonal antibody, which is under Phase II clinical trial for the treatment of non-eosinophilic asthma, as well as inflammatory bowel disease, including moderate to severe Crohn's disease, and ulcerative colitis; and Phase III clinical trial for the treatment of COVID-19 acute respiratory distress syndrome. The company also engages in developing AVTX-007, a fully human Anti-IL-18 monoclonal antibody that is under Phase I clinical trial for the treatment of still's disease, including adult-onset still's disease and systemic juvenile idiopathic arthritis. Its products for rare genetic diseases in Phase III clinical trials include AVTX-801, a D-galactose substrate replacement therapy for the treatment of phosphoglucomutase 1 deficiency (PGM1), also known as PGM1-CDG; and AVTX-803, a L-fucose substrate replacement therapy for the treatment of LADII, also known as SLC35C1-CDG. The company was formerly known as Cerecor Inc. and changed its name to Avalo Therapeutics, Inc. in August 2021. Avalo Therapeutics, Inc. was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Rockville, Maryland.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
Medium confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E -2.4).
Valuation inputs: P/E -2.4, earnings yield N/A, momentum -2.2%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE -94.2%, ROIC -70.2%).
Profitability stack: net margin -1326.4%, ROE -94.2%, ROIC -70.2%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +28.7%, momentum -2.2%, net margin -1326.4%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Avalo Therapeutics, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Avalo Therapeutics, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Avalo Therapeutics, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Negative gross margin indicates the company is losing money on each sale—unsustainable long-term.
Operating Margin
Operating losses indicate the core business is unprofitable. Requires restructuring or revenue growth.
Net Profit Margin
Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.
Profitability Insight
High margin compression: Large gap between gross and net margins suggests operational inefficiencies or heavy debt burden. Focus on expense management and deleveraging.
Avalo Therapeutics, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Moderate conversion rate. Some gap between earnings and cash flow may warrant investigation into working capital or non-cash items.
FCF Growth Trend
Flat FCF growth. Stable but not expanding—monitor for signs of business maturity or temporary headwinds.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
Avalo Therapeutics, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Excellent liquidity position. The company can easily cover its short-term obligations with substantial cushion.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Conservative capital structure. The company relies primarily on equity financing, indicating low financial risk.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Asset-light business model with high liquidity. Majority of assets are easily convertible to cash.
Financial Health Insight
Strong financial foundation: Excellent liquidity combined with conservative leverage suggests the company is well-positioned to weather economic uncertainties and fund growth opportunities.
Avalo Therapeutics, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that AVTX stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 47.14, with estimates ranging from a low of 34.00 to a high of 60.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 47.14, with estimates ranging from a low of 34.00 to a high of 60.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
Mixed analyst views. Wide target range suggests differing opinions on key value drivers, growth prospects, or risk factors.
Analyst Conviction
Bearish or uncertain outlook. Limited upside or poor consensus suggests challenges ahead or fundamental concerns.
Market Sentiment Insight
High risk, high reward: Substantial upside potential exists, but wide analyst disagreement signals execution risk or unclear catalysts. Thorough due diligence essential before committing capital.
Avalo Therapeutics, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $691K and sold $1.98M worth of AVTX shares, resulting in $1.29M of net selling activity.
3 Months
0
0.00
106.5K
1.94M
-1.9M
-$1.94M
3-6 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
6-9 Months
1.6K
19.98K
3.2K
45.29K
-25K
-$25K
9-12 Months
150.1K
670.95K
0
0.00
+671K
+$671K
Top Buyers
Heffernan Michael Thomas
Director
$132K
Goldman Jonathan
Director
$90K
Truex Samantha
Director
$90K
Chan Mitchell
Director
$90K
Kaplan Gilla
Director
$90K
Top Sellers
Varki Paul
Officer: Chief Legal Officer
$707K
Sullivan Christopher Ryan
Officer: Chief Financial Officer
$679K
Doyle Mittie
Officer: Chief Medical Officer
$550K
Goldman Jonathan
Director
$45K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Negative insider sentiment with $1.29M net selling. Selling notably exceeds buying, warranting closer scrutiny of company fundamentals.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Weak buy/sell ratio. Selling significantly exceeds buying—monitor for potential fundamental concerns.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
5 insider buyers vs. 4 sellers. More insiders buying than selling indicates positive sentiment.
Insider Activity Insight
Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.
avtx Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on AVTX by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.