AeroVironment, Inc.
$191.47
-6.3%AeroVironment, Inc. designs, develops, produces, delivers, and supports a portfolio of robotic systems and related services for government agencies and businesses in the United States and internationally. It operates through four segments: Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS), Tactical Missile System (TMS), Medium Unmanned Aircraft Systems (MUAS), and High Altitude Pseudo-Satellite Systems (HAPS). The company supplies UAS, TMS, unmanned ground vehicle, and related services primarily to organizations within the U.S. Department of Defense and to international allied governments. It also designs, engineers, tools, and manufactures unmanned aerial and aircraft systems, including airborne platforms, payloads and payload integration, ground control systems, and ground support equipment and other items and services related to unmanned aircraft systems. In addition, the company offers small UAS products, including spare equipment, alternative payload modules, batteries, chargers, repair services, and customer support, as well as multiple aircraft, hand-held ground control system, and spare parts and accessories. Further, it develops high-altitude pseudo-satellite UAS systems. The company was incorporated in 1971 and is headquartered in Arlington, Virginia.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is elevated (P/E 122.7).
Valuation inputs: P/E 122.7, earnings yield +0.8%, momentum -6.3%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE +4.9%, ROIC +4.2%).
Profitability stack: net margin +5.3%, ROE +4.9%, ROIC +4.2%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +20.9%, momentum -6.3%, net margin +5.3%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
AeroVironment, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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AeroVironment, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
AeroVironment, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Strong gross margins indicate healthy pricing and efficient production or service delivery.
Operating Margin
Minimal operating profit suggests high operating costs or pricing challenges. Scalability is concerning.
Net Profit Margin
Moderate profitability with room for improvement. Monitor interest expenses and tax efficiency.
Effective Tax Rate
Below-average tax rate suggests effective tax planning, favorable jurisdictions, or tax credits.
Profitability Insight
Margin squeeze alert: Healthy gross margins but weak operating margins suggest excessive operating expenses. Cost optimization could unlock significant value.
AeroVironment, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Negative free cash flow despite positive earnings raises concerns about cash generation ability or heavy capital requirements.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.
Working Capital Impact
Significant working capital drain. Growth may be consuming cash through inventory buildup or receivables extension—monitor closely.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Cash flow concerns: Despite profitability, the company is burning cash. Review working capital management, CapEx levels, and sustainability of current operations.
AeroVironment, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Excellent liquidity position. The company can easily cover its short-term obligations with substantial cushion.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Conservative capital structure. The company relies primarily on equity financing, indicating low financial risk.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Financial Health Insight
Strong financial foundation: Excellent liquidity combined with conservative leverage suggests the company is well-positioned to weather economic uncertainties and fund growth opportunities.
AeroVironment, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that AVAV stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 338.33, with estimates ranging from a low of 236.00 to a high of 450.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 338.33, with estimates ranging from a low of 236.00 to a high of 450.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
High uncertainty. Very wide target spread indicates significant disagreement among analysts—major valuation uncertainty or transformation underway.
Analyst Conviction
High uncertainty: Wide dispersion indicates analysts struggle to agree on valuation—proceed with caution and independent analysis.
Market Sentiment Insight
High risk, high reward: Substantial upside potential exists, but wide analyst disagreement signals execution risk or unclear catalysts. Thorough due diligence essential before committing capital.
AeroVironment, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $7.48M worth of AVAV shares, with no buying activity reported.
3 Months
0
0.00
1.3K
274.45K
-274K
-$274K
3-6 Months
0
0.00
4.6K
1.43M
-1.4M
-$1.43M
6-9 Months
0
0.00
3.2K
1.22M
-1.2M
-$1.22M
9-12 Months
0
0.00
17.3K
4.55M
-4.6M
-$4.55M
Top Buyers
No buying activity
Top Sellers
Nawabi Wahid
Director, Officer: Chair, President And Ceo
$4.55M
Mcdonnell Kevin Patrick
Officer: Cfo
$1.39M
Page Stephen F
Director
$792K
Stevenson Trace E
Officer: President, Autonomous Systems
$654K
Shackley Brian Charles
Officer: Chief Accounting Officer
$93K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $7.48M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
5 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
Insider Activity Insight
Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.
No Dividend Yield Data
AVAV has not reported any dividend yield values in the available annual periods.
avav Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on AVAV by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.