Arko Corp.
$7.50
-3.6%Arko Corp. operates convenience stores in the United States. It operates through three segments: Retail, Wholesale, and GPM Petroleum. The Retail segment engages in the sale of fuel and merchandise to retail consumers. The Wholesale segment supplies fuel to third-party dealers and consignment agents. The GPM Petroleum segment supplies fuel to independent dealers, and bulk and spot purchasers. It operates approximately 3,000 locations comprising approximately 1,400 company-operated stores and approximately 1,650 dealer sites. The company is based in Richmond, Virginia.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is elevated (P/E 50.0).
Valuation inputs: P/E 50.0, earnings yield +2.0%, momentum -3.6%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE +6.2%, ROIC +2.5%).
Profitability stack: net margin +0.3%, ROE +6.2%, ROIC +2.5%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +89.6%, momentum -3.6%, net margin +0.3%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Arko Corp. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Arko Corp. Fair Value Envelope
Arko Corp. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Thin margins leave little room for error. Cost management and pricing strategy are critical.
Operating Margin
Minimal operating profit suggests high operating costs or pricing challenges. Scalability is concerning.
Net Profit Margin
Minimal profitability after all expenses. Limited financial flexibility for reinvestment or shareholder returns.
Effective Tax Rate
Moderate tax rate typical for most corporations. Represents standard tax burden on profits.
Profitability Insight
Efficient profit conversion: Minimal margin compression from gross to net indicates lean operations and favorable tax/interest environment.
Arko Corp. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.
CapEx Intensity
Very high capital intensity consumes most operating cash flow. Limited flexibility for dividends or debt reduction.
FCF Growth Trend
Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Capital-intensive growth: Heavy reinvestment limits current cash available but may drive future returns. Assess whether CapEx supports compelling growth opportunities with adequate ROI.
Arko Corp. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Strong liquidity. The company has adequate resources to meet short-term liabilities.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Arko Corp. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that ARKO stock may experience modest gains over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 7.58, with estimates ranging from a low of 6.00 to a high of 8.75.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 7.58, with estimates ranging from a low of 6.00 to a high of 8.75.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Fair value territory. Stock trading near consensus target suggests limited near-term catalysts. Focus on fundamental developments.
Analyst Agreement
Good consensus alignment. Moderate target spread reflects general agreement on value drivers with some variance in assumptions.
Risk-Reward Profile
Unfavorable risk-reward. Downside risk exceeds upside potential. Consider defensive positioning or alternative opportunities.
Analyst Conviction
Neutral sentiment. Fair value pricing with moderate agreement suggests wait-and-see approach or catalyst-driven opportunity.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
Arko Corp. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $123K and sold $108K worth of ARKO shares, resulting in $15K of net buying activity.
3 Months
24.2K
122.82K
12.0K
108.00K
+15K
+$15K
3-6 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
6-9 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
9-12 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
Top Buyers
Jeff Charles Galagher
Officer: Chief Financial Officer, Evp
$123K
Top Sellers
Kotler Arie
Director, 10 Percent Owner, Officer: Chairman, President And Ceo
$108K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Moderately bullish with $15K net buying. Insiders show cautious optimism through measured share purchases.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Positive buy/sell ratio. Buying exceeds or matches selling, indicating net positive insider sentiment.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Positive recent trend with net buying activity. Insiders have been accumulating shares in recent months.
Insider Participation
1 insider buyers and 1 sellers. Equal participation suggests mixed or neutral insider views.
Insider Activity Insight
Sustained buying momentum: Consistent net buying over multiple quarters suggests insiders maintain conviction in the company's prospects. This is particularly meaningful if buying continued through market volatility.
arko Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on ARKO by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.