Stephen J. Riney
Yes, John, just -- if people will indulge me a bit with a bit of time. I think if you just step back, capital efficiency changes everything in our industry, and that's always been true in our industry and the lower cost leads to the ability to access more resource. And all you have to do is look at the history of the Permian conventional to see that where as costs came down, people went from 40-acre spacing to 20-acre spacing to 10-acre spacing, increasing well density and even promoting resource from economic to -- uneconomic to economic status. in the unconventional space in the Permian, that increasing well density also enables, as you alluded to, lowering frac intensity, which then further compounds the lower cost structure that you have on a per well basis. And so for us, capital efficiency has really led to -- here recently to a step function change in our capital efficiency and is leading to pretty meaningful changes in our development patterns. And I don't use the term step function change very lightly either because I think that's an adequate descriptor of what we've done over the last several quarters. We're increasing well count. We're decreasing frac intensity, as you alluded to. That generally lowers average well productivity, yes. But at the DSU level, the drilling spacing unit level, we're increasing total resource access and lowering breakeven oil prices. We talked about in Callon, in 2023, Callon had a $78 WTI oil breakeven price. In 2024, we lowered that to $61. Currently, in the Permian, we are running on average in the low 40s across the entire Permian in terms of a WTI breakeven oil price. In Midland Basin, we're running in the high 30s. And in the Delaware Basin, we're in the low 50s. And most of that Delaware Basin stuff is Callon. And so Callon has come down in 2023 from a $78 breakeven oil price to low 50s at this point. All of this is increasing net asset value and increasing inventory duration, as you alluded to. And while I say average well productivity is lower, I think it's a focus on average well productivity is actually not the right metric. You really have to focus on the spacing unit because wells in a spacing unit are interdependent. And it's the spacing unit that actually matters. Just a couple of years ago, a well-followed industry analyst group noted that Apache have -- Apache's wells have 30% more EUR than industry average. And that was just a couple of years ago, and these were highly productive wells. But at today's cost structure that we have, that development pattern with the wider spacing and larger fracs would actually leave a pretty meaningful amount of economic resource behind. And so today, our development patterns, as you said, much tighter, smaller fracs, they're lower EUR per well, lower productivity per well, but more inventory, more resource, more NAV, lower breakeven oil price. And so if you look at some of our most recent wells using new development patterns, these are delivering -- these wells are delivering as we planned. Some are over planned, some are under plan, as that's always the case. But importantly, some of these ones that are under plan, we're actually learning from those and improving. It's not just because they can't be improved. It's because there are things that we're learning and improving along the way. And I think some really important context that might not be visible to the market, especially related to some of these recent wells that we've been drilling is that there's been some temporary constraints or curtailments on the productivity impacting perceived well producibility. A few examples of that in the Delaware Basin at the GOR facility, as we noted in the fourth quarter, we're actually curtailing production on those intentionally because of the low oil price that wasn't going to last very long. It was because of some pipeline maintenance that was going on, at a really low price at Waha. And so we intentionally curtailed production for a while. Drilling and completion in the GOR area also actually significantly outpaced our facility logistics and the facility just wasn't completely ready for that. That was -- that's been fixed since then. Also in the Delaware Basin, there's a facility called Wild Jenny. We currently have 14 producers into the Wild Jenny facility and they have been producing for the last few months. If you looked at the production of those wells, you say, well, that's not really very exciting. But again, facility logistics, drilling and completions going faster than facilities have also constrained those wells productivity for the last few months. We actually like the underlying performance, and we think the rock quality of those wells are actually really good. We've got 24 more turn-in-lines into the Wild Jenny facility by the end of this year. And the production from those wells, even though it might not -- on paper, might not look all that great, the production from those have actually derisked those 24 turn-in lines. The facility is being worked on as we speak, being debottlenecked and being completed actually. And we expect that all 38 of those wells will flow unconstrained or nearly unconstrained by the end of this year. And perhaps most importantly, in the Midland Basin, in the wildfire area, we've got the Silverbelly facility. And the Wildfire is the area where we're going back in and drilling what we call overfills, which is we're drilling shallower zones where we, in prior years, developed on the wider spacing with what we call mega fracs at the time. And there's some doubts or concerns out there about, well, what are these wells going to produce with those mega fracs down below them that have been producing for a few years. Well, at the Silverbelly facility, we've had delays -- we had delays in delivering power to the facility, and we have electric compression there. So those -- that actually constrained early production from those wells as well. The wells were ready, but the facility wasn't completely ready. That power is now online. The electric compression is up and running and the performance of those wells have actually improved significantly. So the point to all of this is that it's a bit hazardous looking at either comparing well productivity today to 2 years ago when we were developing at a much different pattern. It's also a bit hazardous looking at short-term production from new wells when there might be constraints or other reasons at facilities. We look at the wildfire production and the wells that are online today, and we actually believe that, that's derisked quite a bit more drilling in that area.