AMTX - NASDAQ

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Aemetis, Inc. Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Earnings Review Conference Call. Joining us today are Eric McAfee, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Aemetis, Inc., and Todd Waltz, Chief Financial Officer. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Todd Waltz. Sir, the floor is yours.

Thank you, Ollie, and welcome, everyone. Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that during this call, we will make forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied. Please refer to our earnings release and our SEC filings for a discussion of these risks. For 2025, revenue plus tax credits totaled $53.7 million compared to $47 million in 2024. Quarterly gross profit improved to $7.7 million compared to a gross loss of $2 million in the prior year period. Operating loss improved to $2.5 million compared to $13.5 million in 2024. The net loss improved to $5.3 million compared to $16.2 million last year. For the full year 2025, revenue plus tax credits totaled $208 million compared to $268 million in 2024. Operating loss improved to $37.2 million and net loss improved to $77 million compared to $87.5 million in the prior year. During the fourth quarter, ethanol and RNG operations generated $10.3 million of production tax credits, reflecting the growing contribution of federal clean fuel incentives to the company's financial profile. With that overview, I would like to turn the call over to Eric McAfee, Chairman and CEO of Aemetis, Inc.

Thank you, Todd. Before discussing the business segments, I want to highlight three key takeaways from the fourth quarter and last year. First, our dairy renewable natural gas platform reached an important during 2025, achieving positive segment net income and EBITDA while production increased 61% year over year in the fourth quarter. We generated net income of $12.2 million in our biogas segment in 2025. We expect strong annual growth in cash flow and profitability from the biogas segment for the next four years as 45

Yes, indeed. Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we will be conducting our question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press 1 on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press 2 if you would like to remove your question from the queue. It may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. One moment, please, while we poll for questions. Thank you. Our first question is coming from Derrick Whitfield with Texas Capital. Your line is live.

Yes. Good morning, Aemetis, Inc. team. Great job with the year-end close. Wanted to start with your U.S. business. Maybe, Eric, just at a high level, could you give us your expectations for capital investment for 2026 between your RNG and your ethanol business?

We will be wrapping up our MVR system. Total investment there is going to be roughly in the $40 million range. We will also continue to expand. We have 15 contracted H2S units for the next 15 digesters we are building. That is about a $27 million contract that we have with NPL. And then, separately, the build-out of those 15, which will overlap into 2027, is roughly going to be another $70 million on top of that. So we continue to grow the assets, but our refinancing existing debt includes financing for the assets I just mentioned. And so we are fully financed for the completion of the MVR system. We are fully financed for the $27 million of H2S units. And as we roll out additional digesters, we expect to continue doing the type of 20-year financing which we have completed. As you know, we completed two financings at 20 years each for our first Aemetis Biogas 1 and Aemetis Biogas 2 entity. We are working on Aemetis 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8 right now.

That is terrific, Eric. Then maybe shifting over to ethanol. Margins are quite positive, even before accounting for the MVR investment. How are you thinking about EBITDA generation for that asset in 2026?

Ethanol for us is a story of two worlds: pre-MVR and post-MVR. So this quarter, next quarter, we are going to be benefiting from removal of indirect land use change penalty for our corn on top of our existing carbon intensity. So we are currently at roughly $12 million a year, as you know, they are all granted to the nearest five. So we are currently roughly at that $12 million a year run-rate. That is not including any CO2 reuse. We are waiting for the GREET model and potentially a provisional emissions rate that could be used, the CO2 reuse, to lower our carbon intensity, but not including CO2 reuse, we are roughly $12 million a year. Post-MVR, we get rid of 80% of our natural gas cost, but also 80% of the penalty that we have for natural gas use. So post-MVR, 45

Great. Over to you, Eric. I appreciate it.

Thanks, Eric. Our next question is coming from Amit Dayal with H.C. Wainwright. Your line is live.

Thank you. Hi, Eric. Congrats on the execution in 2025. Looks like you guys are set up very well for 2026 as well. This $40 million investment in the MVR, how much of it has already been made or is the $40 million going to take place in 2026, Eric?

Much of it is already made. We are well past half of that right now. And the remaining balance happens over the next four months or so. But it is fully financed and has no equity dilution through the completion of it. We do not have any funding through the ATM or otherwise for it at this time.

So conservatively, should we assume contribution post-MVR to only come through in 2027?

Contribution should hit us in third quarter, be in full place in the fourth quarter. So it will affect roughly half of this year. Roughly.

Okay. And does the product coming out of this post-MVR need to be qualified, etcetera? Like the RNG had to go through an auditing process. Or will you be able to monetize right away those benefits?

It is the MVR; we are monetizing it “right away.” There is not a long year or two-year delay. One of the points you are making is relevant, which is not including the opportunity to run renewable natural gas into our plant under the rules. The renewable natural gas has to be directly connected from the production source to the ethanol plant. There are only a few plants in the U.S. that are structured that way. We happen to be the owner of one of those plants. So we have 50 dairies signed that can supply our ethanol plant with the renewable natural gas. That would be additional monetization that, in our structure, we really accrue to our dairy biogas business, not to our ethanol business. But, yes, we are definitely uniquely situated to have incremental economics for 45

Understood. Maybe just last one for me. I know you have not provided any formal guidance for 2026, cash flow, EBITDA, etcetera. But at a minimum, can we expect you to perform in line with sort of the cash flows we saw materialize in 2025?

We should be significantly in excess of 2025, which represented virtually no 45

I will take a look at that, Eric. Thank you. With respect to the India operations, will investors just have to learn to live with this start-stop situation over there? I know it is more sort of policy than your production capabilities. But is something going to change on that front, or is this how that market continues to operate?

Well, historically, the ethanol market operated that way until the government committed themselves to growth and then they went from a 1% blend to 20% straight-line in about 48 months. The biodiesel market is in a similar spot. The Russians and the Iranians have been selling heavily discounted crude oil into India. And about a month ago, the end of the 50% tariff that Mr. Trump imposed was an agreement by India not to import Russian oil and essentially indirectly fund the Ukrainian war with Indian money. And then, of course, the breakout of the Iranian war two weeks ago shut off the other cheap funnel of crude oil, which was in violation of the U.S. sanctions, but Indians have been doing it very commonly. Well, that ended two weeks ago. So India does not have any domestic petroleum, natural gas, or even coal of any meaningful amount. So they have just had their two great opportunities in the world, which is to buy cheap petroleum and remain dependent upon petroleum, disappear, and the biofuels is a domestically produced job-creating agricultural economy-based industry. And that is why ethanol has gone from 1% to 20%, and we believe that biodiesel will have the similar kind of rise. Half a percent to 5% is a 10x expansion in the biodiesel business. Our IPO is not based upon solely being a biodiesel producer. It is also about the future energy in India which includes compressed biogas, which we would call in the U.S. renewable natural gas. In India, it is known as CBG, as well as sustainable aviation fuel, which is a very popular item in India right now. The global sustainable aviation fuel market spent about 90 billion gallons, and flying in and out of Asia includes fueling up to meet European and other requirements, including the Singapore airport. So the business we are taking public in India is a global diversified biofuels IPO. We believe it will be the first global diversified biofuels IPO in the history of the India stock market. It happens to have as a centerpiece an 80 million gallon biodiesel plant that is well positioned to become a sustainable aviation fuel plant. And those contracts would be with international airlines and, to a certain extent, circumvents this issue about the domestic demand for biodiesel in the country. Though we do have bullishness around that demand and do plan to have expansion in the biodiesel assets and production capacity we have in India.

Thank you, Eric. That is all I have. Appreciate it.

Thanks, Amit.

Thank you. Our next question is coming from David Joseph Storms with Stonegate. Your line is live.

Morning, and thank you for taking my questions. Just wanted to start with the Keyes plant. It looks like it has been running at about 90% capacity for the last two years. How comfortable are you with the current run-rate? And is there any potential plans to expand it once you are through the MVR Project?

We have an industry that, with the adoption of E15 in California, already had about 600 million gallons of new market open up from an approval perspective. And nationally, I think there will be an E15 adoption, certainly with the Iranian war. That is a top-of-mind affordability move. So I do expect nationally that ethanol plants will be looking at expansion as a strategic goal as we go from roughly 14 billion gallons of actual consumption in the U.S. to over 20 billion gallons with the approval of E15. There is probably a billion to a billion and a half gallons of available capacity just by debottlenecking and the like. But that is far short of the 6 billion gallons needed. And we currently have record exports of over 2 billion gallons a year, and those record exports could actually rise with continued adoption of ethanol blending worldwide, which puts a further strangulation on the number of available gallons for domestic. But we have not announced an expansion campaign yet. I would note that there is a plant that just announced today that they expanded from roughly 55 million gallons to 105 million gallons by using existing tankage and doing certain process improvements. So there is certainly technology available, and we do plan to expand our business. We are currently expanding it by reducing our carbon intensity, reducing our operating costs, and optimizing the carbon. And, frankly, mechanical vapor compression will allow us to be positioned for that kind of debottlenecking and expansion. So I would expect this is going to be more of a 2027 story. We might talk about it later on this year, but, frankly, the margin improvement and sustainable positive cash flow from our existing asset is what we are focusing on right now. And I think we are going to be looking to have optimized that by the end of this year and then focus on expansion plans.

That is great color. Thank you. And then just one more for me. You have got some tailwinds coming out of the One Big Beautiful Bill, and I think it was even mentioned in your release that those tailwinds are starting to be implemented. Just curious as to how you see the logistics in the near term for the continued implementation of those tailwinds and maybe any more color you could give us there?

The big lift was July 4, 2025. In the Senate, House, and the White House when they negotiated a doubling of the number of years and a significant expansion in the amount of 45

Thank you. Our next question is coming from Edward Moon Woo of Ascendiant Capital. Your line is live.

Yeah. Thank you, and congratulations on all the progress. As you talk about being the first global bioenergy company in the India market, have you considered expanding to other markets? And also, what is your expansion opportunities in India? Would you consider possibly a second plant?

Let us take India first because that is where we are actually implementing right now. We are definitely planning to locate plants near feedstock sources. And we have a special relationship with the leading feedstock supplier in the tallow business, for example, and so we do expect to have multiple plants located near feedstock sources. That gives us the advantage both on cost inputs, but also, frankly, puts us closer to the blending facilities that are also regional. But our India business is diversifying into biogas and then into one of our facilities making into sustainable aviation fuel, renewable diesel plant. And so our IPO in India is driving the adoption of new markets. Quite frankly, the Indians are not currently involved with, including sustainable aviation fuel, and there is a lot of excitement about getting independence from imported crude oil in India. So we are in the middle of that process. And then the reason why it is global is our India business, the subsidiary, 100% owned by our company, will be making investments outside of India as part of the IPO. So we are looking forward to more information being disseminated to the market. As we put out our, what is known as, Red Herring and other documents, you will be able to read more about that.

Great. That sounds exciting. Wish you guys good luck. Thank you.

Thank you. Thank you. As we have reached the end of our question and answer session, I will now turn the call to management for closing remarks.

Thank you to Aemetis, Inc. stockholders, stock analysts, and others for joining us today. We look forward to talking with you about participating in the growth opportunities at Aemetis, Inc.