Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.
$45.98
-1.7%Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. provides cloud-based solutions for smart residential and commercial properties in the United States and internationally. It operates in two segments, Alarm.com and Other. The company provides interactive security solutions to control and monitor their security systems, as well as connected security devices, including door locks, motion sensors, door locks, garage doors, Internet of Things, thermostats, and video cameras; and video monitoring solutions, such as video analytics, live streaming, video doorbell, video clips, video alerts, continuous high definition recording, and commercial video surveillance solutions. It also offers intelligent automation and energy management solutions comprising scenes button; smart thermostat schedules; responsive savings; precision comfort; energy usage monitoring; heating, ventilation, and air conditioning monitoring services; whole home water safety solutions; geo-services; and demand response programs. In addition, the company provides commercial solutions, such as daily safeguards, commercial grade video, energy savings, protection for valuables and inventory, temperature monitoring, multi-site management and access control, early identification, simple to use, professionally supported, and easy to maintain. Further, it offers service provider solutions, including a permission-based online portal that offers account management, sales, marketing, training, and support tools; sales, marketing, and training services; and home builder programs, as well as wellness solutions. The company serves residential and commercial subscribers. Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. was founded in 2000 and is based in Tysons, Virginia.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is mid-range (P/E 19.2).
Valuation inputs: P/E 19.2, earnings yield +5.2%, momentum -1.7%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is acceptable (ROE +15.6%, ROIC +5.3%).
Profitability stack: net margin +13.1%, ROE +15.6%, ROIC +5.3%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +58.9%, momentum -1.7%, net margin +13.1%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
Performance Analysis
EPS Growth
Slight earnings decline may be temporary. Monitor future quarters for trend reversal.
Price-EPS Relationship
Both price and earnings are declining together, reflecting deteriorating business fundamentals.
Stock Price Change
Over the 1Y period, stock price has decreased by 21.8%.
P/E Ratio (TTM)
Moderate P/E ratio suggests fair market valuation relative to earnings.
Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.
Operating Margin
Acceptable margins but limited operational leverage. Operating expense control is important.
Net Profit Margin
Strong net margins indicate efficient operations and favorable tax/interest management.
Effective Tax Rate
Moderate tax rate typical for most corporations. Represents standard tax burden on profits.
Profitability Insight
High margin compression: Large gap between gross and net margins suggests operational inefficiencies or heavy debt burden. Focus on expense management and deleveraging.
Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.
Working Capital Impact
Significant working capital drain. Growth may be consuming cash through inventory buildup or receivables extension—monitor closely.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Asset-light with strong cash conversion: Low capital requirements combined with efficient cash generation creates significant shareholder value through dividends, buybacks, or strategic investments.
Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Excellent liquidity position. The company can easily cover its short-term obligations with substantial cushion.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Balanced capital structure with moderate leverage. Equity exceeds debt, suggesting healthy financial stability.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Balanced asset mix between current and non-current assets, typical of many stable businesses.
Financial Health Insight
Strong financial foundation: Excellent liquidity combined with conservative leverage suggests the company is well-positioned to weather economic uncertainties and fund growth opportunities.
Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that ALRM stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 55.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 55.00 to a high of 55.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 55.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 55.00 to a high of 55.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Strong upside potential. Consensus indicates attractive return opportunity with favorable risk-reward profile.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Analyst Conviction
Strong buy conviction: High upside with tight consensus suggests compelling investment opportunity backed by analyst confidence.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $5K and sold $5.53M worth of ALRM shares, resulting in $5.52M of net selling activity.
3 Months
0
0.00
56.5K
2.56M
-2.6M
-$2.56M
3-6 Months
0
0.00
26.2K
1.36M
-1.4M
-$1.36M
6-9 Months
100
4.87K
30.0K
1.51M
-1.5M
-$1.50M
9-12 Months
0
0.00
1.8K
102.43K
-102K
-$102K
Top Buyers
Trundle Stephen
Director, Officer: Chief Executive Officer
$5K
Top Sellers
Kerzner Daniel
Officer: See Remarks
$1.77M
Nevin Darius G
Director
$1.66M
Bedell Jeffrey A
Officer: See Remarks
$1.30M
Trundle Stephen
Director, Officer: Chief Executive Officer
$394K
Ramos Daniel
Officer: See Remarks
$179K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $5.52M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
5 insider sellers vs. 1 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
Insider Activity Insight
Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.
No Dividend Yield Data
ALRM has not reported any dividend yield values in the available annual periods.
alrm Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on ALRM by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.