AGNC Investment Corp.
$10.17
-0.29%AGNC Investment Corp. operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) in the United States. The company invests in residential mortgage pass-through securities and collateralized mortgage obligations for which the principal and interest payments are guaranteed by the United States government-sponsored enterprise or by the United States government agency. It funds its investments primarily through collateralized borrowings structured as repurchase agreements. The company has elected to be taxed as a REIT under the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 and would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes, if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. The company was formerly known as American Capital Agency Corp. and changed its name to AGNC Investment Corp. in September 2016. AGNC Investment Corp. was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Bethesda, Maryland.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E 6.9).
Valuation inputs: P/E 6.9, earnings yield +14.6%, momentum -0.3%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE +13.5%, ROIC -5.1%).
Profitability stack: net margin +87.3%, ROE +13.5%, ROIC -5.1%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +89.2%, momentum -0.3%, net margin +87.3%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
AGNC Investment Corp. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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AGNC Investment Corp. Fair Value Envelope
AGNC Investment Corp. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.
Operating Margin
Outstanding operational efficiency. The company generates substantial profit from core operations.
Net Profit Margin
Exceptional profitability. The company converts a significant portion of revenue to bottom-line earnings.
Effective Tax Rate
Below-average tax rate suggests effective tax planning, favorable jurisdictions, or tax credits.
Profitability Insight
Exceptional profitability across all levels: Strong pricing power, efficient operations, and healthy bottom line indicate a high-quality business with sustainable competitive advantages.
AGNC Investment Corp. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Weak cash conversion. Significant portion of earnings not converting to cash—review working capital trends and capital intensity.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Minimal working capital impact on FCF. Changes in operating assets and liabilities well-managed.
AGNC Investment Corp. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
AGNC Investment Corp. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that AGNC stock may experience modest gains over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 11.13, with estimates ranging from a low of 10.00 to a high of 12.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 11.13, with estimates ranging from a low of 10.00 to a high of 12.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Moderate upside. Analysts expect positive returns but with limited margin of safety. Consider entry timing.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Risk-Reward Profile
Favorable risk-reward. Potential upside significantly exceeds downside risk, offering asymmetric return profile attractive for risk-tolerant investors.
Analyst Conviction
Positive outlook with reasonable agreement. Analysts generally optimistic about prospects with manageable uncertainty.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
AGNC Investment Corp. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $14.57M worth of AGNC shares, with no buying activity reported.
3 Months
0
0.00
232.0K
2.54M
-2.5M
-$2.54M
3-6 Months
0
0.00
825.4K
9.82M
-9.8M
-$9.82M
6-9 Months
0
0.00
157.4K
1.61M
-1.6M
-$1.61M
9-12 Months
0
0.00
62.8K
599.39K
-599K
-$599K
Top Buyers
No buying activity
Top Sellers
Kain Gary D
Director, Officer: Director, Executive Chair
$8.34M
Federico Peter J
Director, Officer: Director, President, Ceo, Cio
$3.53M
Bell Bernice
Officer: Evp, Cfo
$1.48M
Pollack Kenneth L.
Officer: Evp And General Counsel
$606K
Blank Donna
Director
$237K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $14.57M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
5 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
Insider Activity Insight
Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.
agnc Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on AGNC by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.