Affirm Holdings, Inc.
$66.27
-6.7%Affirm Holdings, Inc. operates a platform for digital and mobile-first commerce in the United States and Canada. The company's platform includes point-of-sale payment solution for consumers, merchant commerce solutions, and a consumer-focused app. Its payments network and partnership with an originating bank, enables consumers to pay for a purchase over time with terms ranging from one to forty-eight months. As of June 30, 2021, the company had approximately 29,000 merchants integrated on its platform covering small businesses, large enterprises, direct-to-consumer brands, brick-and-mortar stores, and companies. Its merchants represent a range of industries, including sporting goods and outdoors, furniture and homewares, travel, apparel, accessories, consumer electronics, and jewelry. The company was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is elevated (P/E 414.2).
Valuation inputs: P/E 414.2, earnings yield +0.2%, momentum -6.7%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE +1.7%, ROIC -0.7%).
Profitability stack: net margin +1.6%, ROE +1.7%, ROIC -0.7%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +72.5%, momentum -6.7%, net margin +1.6%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Affirm Holdings, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
Performance Analysis
EPS Growth
Strong earnings growth indicates robust business expansion and improving profitability.
Price-EPS Relationship
Stock price is moving in line with earnings growth—a healthy sign of fundamental-driven valuation.
Stock Price Change
Over the 1Y period, stock price has increased by 22.0%.
P/E Ratio (TTM)
Very high P/E suggests premium valuation or high growth expectations.
Key Insight
Strong earnings growth (+625.1%) is outpacing price appreciation (+22.0%), potentially indicating an attractive entry point as the market may not have fully recognized the improving fundamentals.
Affirm Holdings, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Affirm Holdings, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.
Operating Margin
Operating losses indicate the core business is unprofitable. Requires restructuring or revenue growth.
Net Profit Margin
Minimal profitability after all expenses. Limited financial flexibility for reinvestment or shareholder returns.
Effective Tax Rate
Moderate tax rate typical for most corporations. Represents standard tax burden on profits.
Profitability Insight
Margin squeeze alert: Healthy gross margins but weak operating margins suggest excessive operating expenses. Cost optimization could unlock significant value.
Affirm Holdings, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.
CapEx Intensity
Moderate capital requirements typical of many stable businesses. Healthy balance between reinvestment and cash generation.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Minimal working capital impact on FCF. Changes in operating assets and liabilities well-managed.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Exceptional cash generation: High-quality earnings converting to growing free cash flow. The company demonstrates strong pricing power, efficient operations, and disciplined capital allocation.
Affirm Holdings, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Excellent liquidity position. The company can easily cover its short-term obligations with substantial cushion.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Financial Health Insight
Mixed signals: Strong short-term liquidity provides comfort, but high overall leverage requires careful monitoring of debt servicing capabilities and refinancing risk.
Affirm Holdings, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that AFRM stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 81.93, with estimates ranging from a low of 68.00 to a high of 100.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 81.93, with estimates ranging from a low of 68.00 to a high of 100.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Strong upside potential. Consensus indicates attractive return opportunity with favorable risk-reward profile.
Analyst Agreement
Good consensus alignment. Moderate target spread reflects general agreement on value drivers with some variance in assumptions.
Analyst Conviction
Positive outlook with reasonable agreement. Analysts generally optimistic about prospects with manageable uncertainty.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
Affirm Holdings, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $143.82M worth of AFRM shares, with no buying activity reported.
3 Months
0
0.00
4.0K
240.00K
-240K
-$240K
3-6 Months
0
0.00
553.6K
44.57M
-44.6M
-$44.57M
6-9 Months
0
0.00
24.3K
1.97M
-2.0M
-$1.97M
9-12 Months
0
0.00
1.2M
97.04M
-97.0M
-$97.04M
Top Buyers
No buying activity
Top Sellers
Levchin Max R
Director, 10 Percent Owner, Officer: Chief Executive Officer
$99.53M
Linford Michael
Officer: Chief Operating Officer
$15.62M
Adkins Katherine
Officer: Chief Legal Officer
$12.55M
O'Hare Robert
Officer: Chief Financial Officer
$9.44M
Jiyane Siphelele
Officer: Chief Accounting Officer
$5.84M
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $143.82M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
5 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
Insider Activity Insight
Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.
No Dividend Yield Data
AFRM has not reported any dividend yield values in the available annual periods.
afrm Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on AFRM by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.