Advanced Flower Capital Inc.
$3.50
-4.6%Advanced Flower Capital, Inc. provides commercial real estate finance services. It primarily engages in originating, structuring, underwriting and managing senior secured loans and other types of loans for established companies operating in the cannabis industry in states. The company was founded by Leonard Mark Tannenbaum on July 6, 2020 and is headquartered in West Palm Beach, FL.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
Medium confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E -3.7).
Valuation inputs: P/E -3.7, earnings yield N/A, momentum -4.6%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE -11.8%, ROIC -4.8%).
Profitability stack: net margin -66.0%, ROE -11.8%, ROIC -4.8%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +36.3%, momentum -4.6%, net margin -66.0%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Advanced Flower Capital Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Advanced Flower Capital Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Advanced Flower Capital Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.
Operating Margin
Operating losses indicate the core business is unprofitable. Requires restructuring or revenue growth.
Net Profit Margin
Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.
Profitability Insight
Margin squeeze alert: Healthy gross margins but weak operating margins suggest excessive operating expenses. Cost optimization could unlock significant value.
Advanced Flower Capital Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Negative free cash flow despite positive earnings raises concerns about cash generation ability or heavy capital requirements.
FCF Growth Trend
Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.
Working Capital Impact
Minimal working capital impact on FCF. Changes in operating assets and liabilities well-managed.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Deteriorating cash generation: Both declining FCF and weak conversion rate signal fundamental challenges. Investigate margin pressure, rising costs, or working capital issues.
Advanced Flower Capital Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Acceptable liquidity, but monitor closely. Current assets just barely cover current liabilities.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Elevated leverage. Debt exceeds equity, which amplifies both gains and risks. Monitor debt servicing ability.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Advanced Flower Capital Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that AFCG stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 16.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 10.00 to a high of 25.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 16.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 10.00 to a high of 25.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
High uncertainty. Very wide target spread indicates significant disagreement among analysts—major valuation uncertainty or transformation underway.
Analyst Conviction
High uncertainty: Wide dispersion indicates analysts struggle to agree on valuation—proceed with caution and independent analysis.
Market Sentiment Insight
High risk, high reward: Substantial upside potential exists, but wide analyst disagreement signals execution risk or unclear catalysts. Thorough due diligence essential before committing capital.
Advanced Flower Capital Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $6.86M worth of AFCG shares, with no selling activity reported.
3 Months
633.7K
1.66M
0
0.00
+1.7M
+$1.66M
3-6 Months
98.0K
275.53K
0
0.00
+276K
+$276K
6-9 Months
129.4K
393.14K
0
0.00
+393K
+$393K
9-12 Months
1.0M
4.54M
0
0.00
+4.5M
+$4.54M
Top Buyers
Tannenbaum Leonard M
Director, 10 Percent Owner:
$6.68M
Neville Daniel
Officer: Chief Executive Officer
$143K
Tannenbaum Robyn
Officer: President And Cio
$44K
Top Sellers
No selling activity
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bullish signal with $6.86M net buying. Insiders are aggressively accumulating shares, suggesting significant confidence in future prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Perfect buy/sell ratio. Only buying activity with zero selling—the most bullish possible insider signal.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Very strong recent buying momentum. Recent insider purchases significantly outpace sales, suggesting near-term optimism.
Insider Participation
3 insider buyers vs. 0 sellers. Broad-based buying across management team suggests widespread confidence.
Insider Activity Insight
Strong confluence of bullish signals: High buy/sell ratio, multiple insiders participating, and recent buying momentum all point to significant insider confidence. This level of coordinated buying often precedes positive developments.
afcg Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on AFCG by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.